View Full Version : Why didn't we sign Colon, but we signed Hawkins?
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:17 AM
I really want to know why we didn't sign Bartolo Colon, but we signed the amazing pitcher named LaTroy Hawkins!
Colon would have been a low risk, high reward move. Colon cost the Red Sox peanuts. We waste $4M on Hawkins who is a mop up man, while Bartolo Colon is wearing a Red Sox hat, throwing in the mid to upper 90's and is 3-0.
We have gotten so many players coming off of injuries, but they didn't want a proven Cy Young winner at low cost. They want a guy who chokes under any pressure and who pretty much knows he's going to fail. Big deal if Colon would have eaten Carl Pavano, he's hungry.
But in all seriousness, this urks me to no end and makes me nauseous that Theo Epstein one upped Brian Cashman once again.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:18 AM
And yes I know that one is a starter and one is a reliever, but it doesn't matter. We could have just used an internal solution for LaTroy's spot while having another useful arm in Colon as a backup if the kids failed.
THEBOSS84
06-02-08, 11:19 AM
While I am a Cashman supporter, I can't defend him on the non-signing of Colon. I would like to see some defense for this however.
BRNXBMRS
06-02-08, 11:19 AM
And yes I know that one is a starter and one is a reliever, but it doesn't matter. We could have just used an internal solution for LaTroy's spot.
The rotation was full and no one expected all of these injuries. Wasnt Colons back killing him at one point?
Yankee Tripper
06-02-08, 11:22 AM
Colon was throwing like crap in the dominican winter league, rarely even touching 90 on the gun. Odds on him being sucessful this year were not exactly promising.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:22 AM
The rotation was full and no one expected all of these injuries. Wasnt Colons back killing him at one point?
It doesn't matter, he should have been signed. You always need a backup plan just in case if the kids couldn't do it this year. That backup plan is going to cost us a lot this trading deadline or they bring up another rookie.
EVERY single scouting report on him, including Boston's, had him in the mid to high 80's with little movement. 29 other clubs could have had him for virtually nothing. Boston took the shot on him, and so far it has paid off. Now, obviously the move is successful no matter what happens, but the chances of Colon remaining healthy from here on out this season are probably not good. That being said....the Yankee pitching rotation in AAA was primarily either prospect-laden or was going to consist of pitchers who the Yanks felt it would be more important to get consistent starts for then a reclamation project.
Hindsight? Of course. But I really, REALLY don't think you can kill Cashman for this. Give the Sox credit, but there shouldn't be much blame. Sox took a shot in the dark (freely admitting now they had no clue he would be throwing back in the 90's at this point).
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:23 AM
Colon was throwing like crap in the dominican winter league, rarely even touching 90 on the gun. Odds on him being sucessful this year were not exactly promising.
Yeah, well Jon Lieber and Dotel were signed coming off of Tommy John surgery.
It would have been low risk, high reward.
Look at him, he's hitting up 90's again and is dirt cheap.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:25 AM
EVERY single scouting report on him, including Boston's, had him in the mid to high 80's with little movement. 29 other clubs could have had him for virtually nothing. Boston took the shot on him, and so far it has paid off. Now, obviously the move is successful no matter what happens, but the chances of Colon remaining healthy from here on out this season are probably not good. That being said....the Yankee pitching rotation in AAA was primarily either prospect-laden or was going to consist of pitchers who the Yanks felt it would be more important to get consistent starts for then a reclamation project.
Hindsight? Of course. But I really, REALLY don't think you can kill Cashman for this. Give the Sox credit, but there shouldn't be much blame. Sox took a shot in the dark (freely admitting now they had no clue he would be throwing back in the 90's at this point).
I'm sorry, but it was an obvious move for the Yankees to make and they didn't make it. The Red Sox took a chance and now they're basking in it. Cashman signs Hawkins who is a failure, but doesn't sign Colon? C'mon, that's BS.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:26 AM
While I am a Cashman supporter, I can't defend him on the non-signing of Colon. I would like to see some defense for this however.
As you know, I'm not a Cashman supporter. But c'mon, this move was an obvious one to make and he didn't. He'd rather have a guy who has proven that he can't cut it. I don't want to hear how well he did for Colorado. It's the National League. (Not saying this to you, just in general)
1978 Forever
06-02-08, 11:29 AM
Hindsight? Of course. But I really, REALLY don't think you can kill Cashman for this. Give the Sox credit.
But you miss a major point.....SP is the key & the Sox load up with them every year. Cashman started the year with 2 kids in the rotation and should have done a better job with depth/options. Joba could have stayed in the pen.
Yankee Tripper
06-02-08, 11:30 AM
Mark Prior was available too, should we have signed him? His chances for big league sucess were comparable to Colon's IMO.
Colon was an overwieght, 35 year old, injury risk who couldn't pitch well in winter ball. He was coming off back to back injury plauged seasons in which he posted ERAs of 5+ and 6+. Not signing him is not the huge mistake that everyone is making it out to be.
The Red Sox may have struck gold, it is possible but to say this was expected is just not reasonable it is a clasica example of 20/20 hindsight after 3 starts.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:31 AM
Hindsight? Of course. But I really, REALLY don't think you can kill Cashman for this. Give the Sox credit, but there shouldn't be much blame. Sox took a shot in the dark (freely admitting now they had no clue he would be throwing back in the 90's at this point).
I hate the Red Sox, but I do give them credit for one upping Cashman yet again. It was an obvious move to make, and wasn't made.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:32 AM
Mark Prior was available too, should we have signed him? His chances for big league sucess were comparable to Colon's IMO.
Colon was an overwieght, 35 year old, injury risk who couldn't pitch well in winter ball. He was coming off back to back injury plauged seasons in which he posted ERAs of 5+ and 6+. Not signing him is not the huge mistake that everyone is making it out to be.
The Red Sox may have struck gold, it is possible but to say this was expected is just not reasonable it is a clasica example of 20/20 hindsight after 3 starts.
Different situation. Prior has horrible luck. I wouldn't have touched him with a 10 foot pole. Colon on the other hand is a Cy Young winner and as I say again...LOW RISK, HIGH REWARD.
And yes, it was a HUGE mistake. I'd take a 350lb Colon over Hawkins any day of the week.
Yankee Fan in Boston
06-02-08, 11:33 AM
As you know, I'm not a Cashman supporter. But c'mon, this move was an obvious one to make and he didn't. He'd rather have a guy who has proven that he can't cut it. I don't want to hear how well he did for Colorado. It's the National League. (Not saying this to you, just in general)
First of all, the two are not in the least related, and I am not sure why you are tying them together. Secondly, to Gold23's point -- where was the cry when the Sox signed Colon in the first place? No one thought he was going to pitch this well, which is why his base salary is only $1.25 million.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:35 AM
First of all, the two are not in the least related, and I am not sure why you are tying them together. Secondly, to Gold23's point -- where was the cry when the Sox signed Colon in the first place? No one thought he was going to pitch this well, which is why his base salary is only $1.25 million.
I'm tying them together because signing Hawkins was a risk and so was Colon. You take a risk on Hawkins, but not on Colon? I'd take the risk on Colon over Hawkins anyday of the week. C'mon, don't tell me you can't tie them together.
I wanted Colon.
BillBuckner
06-02-08, 11:35 AM
So what's this about, starting pitching? Our rotation is fine right now if you ask me and is only going to get better. Passing on Colon was an obvious decision at the time.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:37 AM
So what's this about, starting pitching? Our rotation is fine right now if you ask me and is only going to get better. Passing on Colon was an obvious decision at the time.
An obviously wrong decision in my opinion. Low risk, high reward. You take a chance. But they'd rather take a chance on Hawkins? I wouldn't have even thought about signing Hawkins. I don't even know how many times I've seen Hawkins blow games.
The rotation is fine at the moment. But I still would feel a little more comfortable if Colon was part of it.
27IsNext
06-02-08, 11:38 AM
The thought was that the rotation would start out as followed:
Wang
Pettitte
Mussina
Hughes
Kennedy
With Chamberlain moving to the rotation eventually. We also felt that we had two guys in Horne and Marquez in AAA that could step in if needed.
Well, Hughes and Kennedy stunk it up, then both got injured. To make matters worse, Horne got injured and is just now getting back from rehab. Marquez has done horribly this year. We've had to fill our fifth starter spot with Rasner, a guy who many pegged as nothing more than a longman.
Basically, we got really unlucky with everything that's happened. In Colon's case, as already reported, he was throwing only mid- to upper-80s this past winter. With all of the supposed depth, we felt we'd be better off just sticking with homegrown talent.
Also, I'm sorry, but let's wait for more than just a handful of starts before declaring Colon a genius move.
we can get on Cash for a lot of things but not signing Colon is not one of them IMO.
Yankee Tripper
06-02-08, 11:39 AM
Different situation. Prior has horrible luck. I wouldn't have touched him with a 10 foot pole. Colon on the other hand is a Cy Young winner and as I say again...LOW RISK, HIGH REWARD.
And yes, it was a HUGE mistake. I'd take a 350lb Colon over Hawkins any day of the week.No, not different at all and if Prior hadn't blow out his arm again and instead was 3-0 for the Pads, you or someone like you would have started a thread on how stupid Cashman was for not signing him.
Oh and Prior finished 3rd in the Cy young voting so it isn't like he's never had sucess and is 10 years younger than Colon. Colon looked completely cooked with LAA last year and nothing in his off seaon profile indicated he'd be even passably good this year. To skewer Cashman over this one is simply silly IMO.
For what it's worth I was against going after either but of the two I'd have taken a chance on Prior before Colon.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:42 AM
No, not different at all and if Prior hadn't blow out his arm again and instead was 3-0 for the Pads, you or someone like you would have started a thread on how stupid Cashman was for not signing him.
Oh and Prior finished 3rd in the Cy young voting so it isn't like he's never had sucess and is 10 years younger than Colon. Colon looked completely cooked with LAA last year and nothing in his off seaon profile indicated he'd be even passably good this year. To skewer Cashman over this one is simply silly IMO.
For what it's worth I was against going after either but of the two I'd have taken a chance on Prior before Colon.
Different situation in my opinion.
And sorry dude, I never wanted Prior, so don't tell me how someone like me would start a thread about wanting prior.
Prior was never healthy.
Yeah, well Jon Lieber and Dotel were signed coming off of Tommy John surgery.
It would have been low risk, high reward.
Look at him, he's hitting up 90's again and is dirt cheap.It's June 2. He's pitched ~150 innings the past two years combined with an ERA+ of about 75 and a WHIP of 1.5. He's had arm troubles and his conditioning is miserable. What is low risk about that? Did you see that Mark Prior just got shelved again for the entire year?
Matt Clement looked pretty good after 3 starts for the Sox in '05, and we know how that ended up. And on our side, He Whom We Do Not Name got off to a hot start in '05 as well. And we know how that ended up.
The last person on the planet I am worried about is Bartolo Colon.
And Hawkins was and remains a low risk signing. We got a sandwich pick and avoided a 2 year deal by letting Vizcaino go (and he is on the DL with a bum arm) and signed Hawkins to a one year deal in hopes he could be solid in the pen until he can be replaced in-year or next year with some young arms from the minors.
Hawkins hasn't been great, or even good, but he hasn't been as bad as some would make it appear. In the games where he's given up more than 1 ER only one of those really contributed directly to a loss. He's pitched in 20 games and a few of his outings have been undermined by bad defense that's not showing up in the stats. And let's not forget that he had to kickoff his Yankee tenure getting lambasted by his hometown fans for the number he wore on his back.
I'm not defending the guy per se; I'm moreso defending Cash by saying that passing on Colon was the right call and that he shouldn't get skewered for what he did in letting Viz walk and replacign him with Hawk.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:47 AM
It's June 2. He's pitched ~150 innings the past two years combined with an ERA+ of about 75 and a WHIP of 1.5. He's had arm troubles and his conditioning is miserable. What is low risk about that? Did you see that Mark Prior just got shelved again for the entire year?
Matt Clement looked pretty good after 3 starts for the Sox in '05, and we know how that ended up. And on our side, He Whom We Do Not Name got off to a hot start in '05 as well. And we know how that ended up.
The last person on the planet I am worried about is Bartolo Colon.
And Hawkins was and remains a low risk signing. We got a sandwich pick and avoided a 2 year deal by letting Vizcaino go (and he is on the DL with a bum arm) and signed Hawkins to a one year deal in hopes he could be solid in the pen until he can be replaced in-year or next year with some young arms from the minors.
Hawkins hasn't been great, or even good, but he hasn't been as bad as some would make it appear. In the games where he's given up more than 1 ER only one of those really contributed directly to a loss. He's pitched in 20 games and a few of his outings have been undermined by bad defense that's not showing up in the stats. And let's not forget that he had to kickoff his Yankee tenure getting lambasted by his hometown fans for the number he wore on his back.
I'm not defending the guy per se; I'm moreso defending Cash by saying that passing on Colon was the right call and that he shouldn't get skewered for what he did in letting Viz walk and replacign him with Hawk.
I wouldn't have signed Vizcaino anyway, after Torre got done with him.
But I'd rather have Colon.
I hated how the guy got booed for wearing the #21. That was nonsense. I'm sure the guy is a nice guy, but I don't want him on this team. We already have a questionable Kyle Farnsworth. We don't need two questionable pitchers in the pen.
But you miss a major point.....SP is the key & the Sox load up with them every year. Cashman started the year with 2 kids in the rotation and should have done a better job with depth/options. Joba could have stayed in the pen.
100% correct. I fault Cashman for not having depth. I just don't fault him for not having depth in the form of Colon. Again, literally every single scouting report on him said he had nothing left. Give the Sox credit for not paying attention to it and signing him anyway.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:50 AM
100% correct. I fault Cashman for not having depth. I just don't fault him for not having depth in the form of Colon. Again, literally every single scouting report on him said he had nothing left. Give the Sox credit for not paying attention to it and signing him anyway.
Well the Red Sox must have seen something if they signed him.
effdamets
06-02-08, 11:51 AM
100% correct. I fault Cashman for not having depth. I just don't fault him for not having depth in the form of Colon. Again, literally every single scouting report on him said he had nothing left. Give the Sox credit for not paying attention to it and signing him anyway.
Wouldn't this more likely to be considered luck?
ARoDfan4life
06-02-08, 11:51 AM
wait wait wait wait just a god da.. minute Colon coming off major surgery for the last 3 years, partially torn rotator cuff, soreness or inflammation in his right shoulder...throwing 89 mph not 90..89 mph in winterball w/ bad location too. Mets, Braves, Yankees all had scouts watching him and determined he was not a good enough risk.
Your basing his year on 3 starts in the ML there is a whole season he has to get through before we say anything about this. Bartolo is not gonna keep me up at night w/ OMG how could Cash not sign him. He has an injury track record, can break down any second and it's a big reason the Sox are putting him on the trade block soon and some sap team will buy into it.
It's June 2. He's pitched ~150 innings the past two years combined with an ERA+ of about 75 and a WHIP of 1.5. He's had arm troubles and his conditioning is miserable. What is low risk about that? Did you see that Mark Prior just got shelved again for the entire year?
Matt Clement looked pretty good after 3 starts for the Sox in '05, and we know how that ended up. And on our side, He Whom We Do Not Name got off to a hot start in '05 as well. And we know how that ended up.
The last person on the planet I am worried about is Bartolo Colon.
And Hawkins was and remains a low risk signing. We got a sandwich pick and avoided a 2 year deal by letting Vizcaino go (and he is on the DL with a bum arm) and signed Hawkins to a one year deal in hopes he could be solid in the pen until he can be replaced in-year or next year with some young arms from the minors.
Hawkins hasn't been great, or even good, but he hasn't been as bad as some would make it appear. In the games where he's given up more than 1 ER only one of those really contributed directly to a loss. He's pitched in 20 games and a few of his outings have been undermined by bad defense that's not showing up in the stats. And let's not forget that he had to kickoff his Yankee tenure getting lambasted by his hometown fans for the number he wore on his back.
I'm not defending the guy per se; I'm moreso defending Cash by saying that passing on Colon was the right call and that he shouldn't get skewered for what he did in letting Viz walk and replacign him with Hawk.
I pretty much agree with everything. Only thing I will say is that I didn't like the Hawkins signing...but understood it. If he is a 6th inning guy, he is low risk and actually should be one of the more effective 6th inning guys around.
But the Yanks needed a middle guy, so railing over the Hawkins signing because of the non-sign of Colon is apples/oranges. The big point is that Colon hasn't been an effective major leaguer in YEARS, and he's had three starts where people are believing otherwise. Also...the three starts are not exactly against the monsters of the offensive league- KC, SEA, and Baltimore. Talk to us all in a month.
ShaneTravis
06-02-08, 11:53 AM
I'll bump this when we sign Freddy Garcia and he is a bust.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:54 AM
wait wait wait wait just a god da.. minute Colon coming off major surgery for the last 3 years, partially torn rotator cuff, soreness or inflammation in his right shoulder...throwing 89 mph not 90..89 mph in winterball w/ bad location too. Mets, Braves, Yankees all had scouts watching him and determined he was not a good enough risk.
Your basing his year on 3 starts in the ML there is a whole season he has to get through before we say anything about this. Bartolo is not gonna keep me up at night w/ OMG how could Cash not sign him. He has an injury track record, can break down any second and it's a big reason the Sox are putting him on the trade block soon and some sap team will buy into it.
:lol: Colon has an injury track record and Hawkins has a track record for not getting the job done.
Wouldn't this more likely to be considered luck?
Absolutely. But they took the chance to be lucky. Again, I wouldn't have done it- and 29 other GM's agreed with me at the time, lol. But he's given them 3 good starts.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:54 AM
Absolutely. But they took the chance to be lucky. Again, I wouldn't have done it- and 29 other GM's agreed with me at the time, lol. But he's given them 3 good starts.
Brian Cashman, is that you?
YankeePride1967
06-02-08, 11:55 AM
The same can be asked of 29 teams that passed on him.
ShaneTravis
06-02-08, 11:56 AM
Also...the three starts are not exactly against the monsters of the offensive league- KC, SEA, and Baltimore. Talk to us all in a month.
If Colon is still pitching with the club in a month I will be stunned.
:lol: Colon has an injury track record and Hawkins has a track record for not getting the job done.
Hawkins actually has a track record of being a league average reliever who is consistently healthy. There is a value to that. He's been horrible so far, and he also doesn't fare to well in pressure spots. But in March every single GM in baseball- including the Sox- would have preferred Hawkins to Colon if they were both sitting out there and cost them the same amount.
27IsNext
06-02-08, 11:57 AM
Brian Cashman, is that you?
You ask a question and we give you responses, then you belittle those responses? Why don't you just say how you really feel--that Cashman is a blithering idiot--and be done with it?
Brian Cashman, is that you?
If it was, I'd have said 28 ;)
ARoDfan4life
06-02-08, 11:57 AM
:lol: Colon has an injury track record and Hawkins has a track record for not getting the job done.
that's your comeback ? Hawkins is here because he's the only reliever in the ML that would take a 1 yr. deal, he's not a staple, more like a temporary roster filler. Meanwhile who's pitched better Bartolo Colon or Darrell Rasner ?;)
BRNXBMRS
06-02-08, 11:58 AM
Well the Red Sox must have seen something if they signed him.
They did Theo Epsyein has super human powers and can predict the future. Thats why every trade & signing they do is perfect.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 11:58 AM
Hawkins actually has a track record of being a league average reliever who is consistently healthy. There is a value to that. He's been horrible so far, and he also doesn't fare to well in pressure spots.
Thank for proving my point.
effdamets
06-02-08, 11:59 AM
Absolutely. But they took the chance to be lucky. Again, I wouldn't have done it- and 29 other GM's agreed with me at the time, lol. But he's given them 3 good starts.
Oh - I'm with you on this...
3 starts = nothing. Talk to me after he faces the Yankees, Rays, or Angels a few times.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 12:00 PM
You ask a question and we give you responses, then you belittle those responses? Why don't you just say how you really feel--that Cashman is a blithering idiot--and be done with it?
:lol: If you read what he wrote and I bolded it, it make me laugh. How is that belittling responses? I DON'T LIKE CASHMAN AND DON'T THINK HE'S A GOOD GM. That's my opinion. Thanks.
yankeebot
06-02-08, 12:01 PM
:lol::D When he sucks during a game just call it a "Blown Colon"
The only velocity Bartolo Colon has is when he's shoving food in his mouth. :)
I predict Colon goes on the DL at least twice this season.
He's in better shape that Fatolo Colon. ;)
There are more but I think it's pretty easy to say that hindsight is usually 20/20. Those just don't sound like the words of someone who would have supported a Colon signing at the time it was made.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 12:01 PM
that's your comeback ? Hawkins is here because he's the only reliever in the ML that would take a 1 yr. deal, he's not a staple, more like a temporary roster filler. Meanwhile who's pitched better Bartolo Colon or Darrell Rasner ?;)
Who's pitched better...Bartolo Colon or LaTroy Hawkins? I never brought Rasner into this. Rasner has been much better than Colon, but Colon hasn't been bad.
Yankee Tripper
06-02-08, 12:01 PM
And sorry dude, I never wanted Prior, so don't tell me how someone like me would start a thread about wanting prior.
Check the Hot Stove, there were plenty of posters who wanted Prior. I'm not saying you but I guarantee that if Prior was 3-0 instead of done, we have a very similar thread started by someone else.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 12:02 PM
There are more but I think it's pretty easy to say that hindsight is usually 20/20. Those just don't sound like the words of someone who would have supported a Colon signing at the time it was made.
:lol: I have always liked Colon. I'm just saying how I'd rather have the fat Colon over Hawkins.
Yankee Tripper
06-02-08, 12:03 PM
There are more but I think it's pretty easy to say that hindsight is usually 20/20. Those just don't sound like the words of someone who would have supported a Colon signing at the time it was made.
:roflmao:
The rotation was full and no one expected all of these injuries. Wasnt Colons back killing him at one point?
These are pitchers injuries should always be expected, and these are young pitchers where injuries are very expected and growing pains are the norm.
:lol: Colon has an injury track record and Hawkins has a track record for not getting the job done.Hawkins was coming off a very productive season in Colorado. Because of his spotty track record, he got a one year deal. You have to look at it in context. We let Viz go because we had Hawkins on the hook. That got us a sandwich pick and a lower risk deal. Right there you have a positive outcome. Also, it kept us from signing a type A free agent releiver and losing our first round pick.
If you're going to bash on that signing, what would you have proposed to fill Viz' spot? And you do realize that not all relievers pitch like Mo or Joba, right?
27IsNext
06-02-08, 12:05 PM
There are more but I think it's pretty easy to say that hindsight is usually 20/20. Those just don't sound like the words of someone who would have supported a Colon signing at the time it was made.
:roflmao:
Good find. The truth comes out...
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 12:05 PM
There are more but I think it's pretty easy to say that hindsight is usually 20/20. Those just don't sound like the words of someone who would have supported a Colon signing at the time it was made.
I guess you have a lot of time on your hands. :lol:
And yes, I did say that stuff, but who cares? I never wanted Hawkins. I'd rather have Colon over him.
Colon proved me wrong, but I still would have taken the risk.
ARoDfan4life
06-02-08, 12:05 PM
There are more but I think it's pretty easy to say that hindsight is usually 20/20. Those just don't sound like the words of someone who would have supported a Colon signing at the time it was made.
exposed as an idiot, actually Monday morning QB. :o
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 12:06 PM
:roflmao:
Good find. The truth comes out...
Um yeah, I still would have taken the risk in signing him, instead of Hawkins.
27IsNext
06-02-08, 12:06 PM
Um yeah, I still would have taken the risk in signing him, instead of Hawkins.
Yes, I'm sure you would have.
There are more but I think it's pretty easy to say that hindsight is usually 20/20. Those just don't sound like the words of someone who would have supported a Colon signing at the time it was made.Uh, wow. I was going to pull the hindsight card but rarely do. Yikes.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 12:07 PM
exposed as an idiot, actually Monday morning QB. :o
http://forums.nyyfans.com/images/buttons/report.gif
THEBOSS84
06-02-08, 12:08 PM
Classic
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 12:08 PM
Yes, I'm sure you would have.
Yeah I would have. You don't know me. Thanks
27IsNext
06-02-08, 12:08 PM
This is hilarious.
Um yeah, I still would have taken the risk in signing him, instead of Hawkins.Wait, you bag on his velocity, his weight and predict at least 2 DL stints... and you'd still rather have him than Hawkins?
Why didn't you just start a "I hate Brian Cashman Thread"?
JohnnyDamonfan
06-02-08, 12:08 PM
It's only a matter of time before Colon collapses.Trust me by mid July early August Colon will suck.I admit that we shouldn't have gotten Latroy but for Colon s just not worth it in the long run. Just like Dice K is going to get worse further down the line.
27IsNext
06-02-08, 12:10 PM
Yeah I would have. You don't know me. Thanks
I know you have a pretty obvious anti-Cashman agenda. Perhaps you should have just titled the thread, "Cashman is stupid for not signing Colon." Problem is, you still have to deal with the fact that your posting history suggests that you're Monday-morning quarterbacking, as ARoDfan4life put it.
JavyVazquezIsSick
06-02-08, 12:10 PM
Should we compare Rasner and Colon?
ARoDfan4life
06-02-08, 12:11 PM
http://forums.nyyfans.com/images/buttons/report.gif
oh com'on that's not abusing a poster at all, yankeebot exposed you, here you are starting a thread on how you wouldn't have done this sure buddy. ;)
ShaneTravis
06-02-08, 12:12 PM
You mean he won't keep up the 3.5 Era against the rest of the AL?
He went up against the power of KC,Seattle, and Baltimore! Only the 11th,12th, and 14th worst offenses in the AL.
brosiusbuddy
06-02-08, 12:16 PM
We have gotten so many players coming off of injuries, but they didn't want a proven Cy Young winner at low cost.
A fat, always injured pitcher who was terrible over the past two seasons really wasn't worth signing when we have plenty of young kids who could take a rotation spot if need be. Colon's success will not last. He may win games because he has Boston's offense behind him, but his numbers will not stay too pretty.
As far as his Cy Young, that was a rip off. He certainly wasn't the best pitcher in the league that year; he wasn't even the best pitcher on the Angels. (See John Lackey)
primetime714
06-02-08, 12:16 PM
As others have stated Colon and Hawkins, comletely unrelated. We signed Hawkins as we were looking for an experienced reliever to help bridge the gap until some of our younger players were available. We didn't sign Colon because we felt we would have no use for him, looking at our rotation right now who would Colon replace? Maybe Joba stays in the bullpen longer, but I doubt it as this was the plan for him all along. I like Rasner more than Colon.
I'm upset that Colon is doing so well for our rival the Red Sox. Otherwise I could care less that we didn't sign him. Sure, its always nice to have an extra arm like that. However even now in a situation that definitely would be deemed worse than expected we still don't have a glaring need for Colon.
Our problems in the rotation were cause of Hughes and Kennedy struggling. With Rasner and now hopefully Joba pitching well we should have a lot of stability 1-5. Horne is just about healthy and then Kennedy and Hughes are about a month away which will give us some depth.
As for Hawkins he was an insurance policy and bridge to our younger guys. As it turns out a lot of the younger guys are ready sooner than we thought, so we really don't need Hawkins anymore. Still it made sense at the time because you couldn't be certain that guys like Edwar would step up into a late inning role when Joba was converted to the rotation.
THEBOSS84
06-02-08, 12:18 PM
I just hope the Sox don't wisely trade Colon off to a desperate team in the NL (Cards/Brewers can use him) for some nice prospects.
TheDynasty26
06-02-08, 12:24 PM
I just hope the Sox don't wisely trade Colon off to a desperate team in the NL (Cards/Brewers can use him) for some nice prospects.
I smell multi-year deal
bmxstreetrider86
06-02-08, 12:31 PM
But you miss a major point.....SP is the key & the Sox load up with them every year. Cashman started the year with 2 kids in the rotation and should have done a better job with depth/options. Joba could have stayed in the pen.
so did theo
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 12:33 PM
Oh noes, someone used the search function. :o
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 12:35 PM
I know you have a pretty obvious anti-Cashman agenda. Perhaps you should have just titled the thread, "Cashman is stupid for not signing Colon." Problem is, you still have to deal with the fact that your posting history suggests that you're Monday-morning quarterbacking, as ARoDfan4life put it.
Yeah I am anti-Cashman. What's your point? Oh noes, Monday-morning quarterbacking. Oh noeeeeees.
Oh my lord, my posting history....oh my lord...this is the internet isn't it? Oh know, my posting history. :eek:
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 12:36 PM
You mean he won't keep up the 3.5 Era against the rest of the AL?
He went up against the power of KC,Seattle, and Baltimore! Only the 11th,12th, and 14th worst offenses in the AL.
The sad thing is that the Orioles beat us with their horrible offense. Seattle is another story. They just suck and KC as well.
But it's sad that Orioles pitching shuts our offense down, and our pitching sparks the Orioles offense....usually.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 12:37 PM
I smell multi-year deal
You just smell Colon. :P
groovitude
06-02-08, 12:43 PM
Um yeah, I still would have taken the risk in signing him, instead of Hawkins.
Okay, let's play a game.
You are the general manager of a very successful baseball franchise, going into the 2008 season. You ask your trusted baseball advisors, statisticans, and scouts to compile some data for you as you look to fill in spots for your team for the next year. At the exact same time, two of your employees barge through your door with identically formatted stat sheets.
Player A Player B
ERA (2006) 4.48 5.11
ERA (2007) 3.42 6.34
WHIP (2006) 1.46 1.46
WHIP (2007) 1.23 1.62
SLGA (2006) .428 .517
SLGA (2007) .393 .490
HR/9 (2006) 0.60 1.75
HR/9 (2007) 0.98 1.36
BB/9 (2006) 2.24 1.76
BB/9 (2007) 2.60 2.63
K/9 (2006) 4.03 4.95
K/9 (2007) 4.72 6.89
You review their histories and positional rankings as well. Player A is a reliever, averaging about 58 IP over the last two years. Player B is a starter, who has averaged about 78 IP over the last two years, not breaking 100 IP in either year.
You currently have a rotation in mind of players you already have signed -- two older but consistent veterans, two rookies who have shown flashes of greatness in the few MLB innings they logged this past year, and an ace-caliber pitcher in his mid-twenties. All together in 2007, they logged 658.3 MLB innings for an ERA of 4.21.
The relievers you're holding onto this offseason include a fireballing young phenom who you hope to convert to a starter at some point soon; the greatest closer of all time; and, like every other bullpen in the majors, a heap of spare parts. You check the numbers for the relievers you will be holding onto into the next season. They logged 265.6 MLB innings for an ERA of 4.10. You are, however, hoping to convert that young fireballer; and without him, that ERA changes to 4.48.
Additionally, you have let go a number of bullpen parts -- four of them in particular are significant losses in terms of innings pitched. They combined for 212.6 IP at a 3.85 ERA.
Who do you sign?
themgmt
06-02-08, 01:27 PM
When Colon gets shelled a few times you'll be singing a different tune.
Oh noes, someone used the search function. :oNow you're being silly. This is seriously the worst proven case of using hindsight I've seen on this board - and it was used in a really poor comparison as a roundabout way to bash our GM. A really bad play. You got punked on it. Move on. But don't come back with the "oh noes" like the poster was a fool for calling you out on it. Many posters on this board have eaten crow or put their foot in their mouth when necessary.
just-blaze
06-02-08, 01:50 PM
I just like to point out that Colon is not throwing mid nineties to upper nineties as the original post suggests, but signing Colon would have but as smart as signing Lane/Ensberg/Broussard.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 01:58 PM
Now you're being silly. This is seriously the worst proven case of using hindsight I've seen on this board - and it was used in a really poor comparison as a roundabout way to bash our GM. A really bad play. You got punked on it. Move on. But don't come back with the "oh noes" like the poster was a fool for calling you out on it. Many posters on this board have eaten crow or put their foot in their mouth when necessary.
A roundabout way to bash our GM? :lol: That's a good one. I guess I got punked by a screenname on a message board. It's more like seeing what Colon is doing compared to Hawkins. Yes, 2 different types of pitchers, one who is a starter and one who is a reliever, but Hawkins just doesn't cut it. I said what I said back then, but when Colon was a Free Agent before he went to the Angels, I wanted him. I wanted him signed for this year before he signed with the Red Sox. I said what I said about him because he's a Red Sox...I'd be singing a different tune if he was a Yankee.
But in all honesty, Theo one upped Cashman on this. There is no way around it.
YankeesAce4Life
06-02-08, 01:59 PM
I just like to point out that Colon is not throwing mid nineties to upper nineties as the original post suggests, but signing Colon would have but as smart as signing Lane/Ensberg/Broussard.
Well I heard last night and this morning on tv that Colon was dialing it up like his old self.
wang+cano=future
06-02-08, 02:04 PM
It does trouble me that Cash did not have a lot of insurance on if Hughes and Kennedy tanked the beginning of the season. The Yanks are fortunate that Moose has regained form.
just-blaze
06-02-08, 02:15 PM
Well I heard last night and this morning on tv that Colon was dialing it up like his old self.
I dont know who said that but 90-93 is what I saw.
Edit: His Average Velocity is 92.07
knickfan23
06-02-08, 02:16 PM
When Colon gets shelled a few times you'll be singing a different tune.
But its not as if the Red Sox are looking for him to start 30 times. He only needs to start no more than 10 games for their investment to pay off. Technically, they can call it a success now because he has won 3 games for them pitching well.
He's doing exactly what they could hope for considering they spent only 1.25 million on him. Morgan Ensberg by comparison is making 2 million and is now DFA.
RhodyYanksFan
06-02-08, 02:18 PM
Because if we did sign Colon, he'd probably be 0-4 with a +7 ERA and on the DL for being too fat right now and if the Sox signed Hawkins he'd become their Joba. That's how things work in the 2008 bizarro American League.
teknetic
06-02-08, 02:22 PM
I don't normally do this, but..
http://yankeesace4life.justgotowned.com/
*Volume required
bostonyankeefan
06-02-08, 02:55 PM
This may be sort of off topic, but we couldn't we have signed Colon to a minor league deal and Hawkins to a major league deal? I understand that even the Yankees have limited resources, but other than the money, I don't see why we couldn't have signed both Colon and Hawkins. Even if the odds were slim that Colon would pan out, it seems like a move worth making with two youngsters in the rotation.
This may be sort of off topic, but we couldn't we have signed Colon to a minor league deal and Hawkins to a major league deal? I understand that even the Yankees have limited resources, but other than the money, I don't see why we couldn't have signed both Colon and Hawkins. Even if the odds were slim that Colon would pan out, it seems like a move worth making with two youngsters in the rotation.Sure, Cash could have. But I disagree that it was a move worth making and I still feel that time will bear that out. Obviously a lot of scouts felt the same way. Theo took a chance and for 18 innings it hasn't blown up in his face. We'll see.
If we made every move worth making we'd have Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Bartolo Colon and others in our starting rotation right now. Personally, I'd rather get the growing pains out of the way, let these guys develop and root for kids like IPK and Hughes than Bartolo Colon.
Yankee Fan in Boston
06-02-08, 03:53 PM
This may be sort of off topic, but we couldn't we have signed Colon to a minor league deal and Hawkins to a major league deal? I understand that even the Yankees have limited resources, but other than the money, I don't see why we couldn't have signed both Colon and Hawkins. Even if the odds were slim that Colon would pan out, it seems like a move worth making with two youngsters in the rotation.
It's only the guy who started the thread who has linked the two pitchers. Obviously, they were different decisions, and neither had a bearing on the other. As for Colon, as others have stated, he looked awful in the spring, and couldn't even find a major league contract (anywhere), while we already had six starters (if you count Joba) and Rasner, Horne, et. al. nipping at their heels.
No one was clamoring for that deal, until now, when he has put together a few good starts.
cupcollector99
06-02-08, 03:55 PM
The Sox had the flexibility with their existing staff to sign Colon and be patient with him until he came around. They started the season with their chief competitors, (Yankees) having a very weak starting rotation which afforded them the time to play around with their own. The last thing the Yankees needed was another guy on the cusp of major league usefulness getting pressured to perform early in the season.
Last time I checked, they have two already and they're both on the DL. This might have worked for NY but it could have easily blown-up in their faces too. Hindsight is always 20/20
apolansk
06-02-08, 04:29 PM
Where are your posts from February and March saying we should sign him?
You might as well say we should have drafted Pujols in the 11th round in 1999 or picked up Josh Hamilton off waivers in 2005. Where was Cashman then?
Why even bring up this useless drivel?
Mr. Mxylsplk
06-02-08, 04:53 PM
You might as well say we should have drafted Pujols in the 11th round in 1999 or picked up Josh Hamilton off waivers in 2005. Where was Cashman then?
Man, that would be pretty sweet right about now.
Why even bring up this useless drivel?
Sometimes the need to complain is overwhelming.
1978 Forever
06-02-08, 04:53 PM
wait wait wait wait just a god da.. minute Colon coming off major surgery for the last 3 years,
Umm..last 3 years? That would be 2005, 2006, & 2007. I think Colon won 21 games & the Cy Young award in 2005.
Umm..last 3 years? That would be 2005, 2006, & 2007. I think Colon won 21 games & the Cy Young award in 2005.You're correct, but Arodfan's point is still valid. Two years totaling 150 IP and an ERA+ of less than 80 plus arm injury and conditioning concerns...
Not to mention that Cy Young should have gone to Mo! :mad:
bigwampum
06-02-08, 05:37 PM
Colon will fall back down to earth. Hard. Count on it.
AlbanyColonieYankee
06-02-08, 07:33 PM
An obviously wrong decision in my opinion. Low risk, high reward. You take a chance. But they'd rather take a chance on Hawkins? I wouldn't have even thought about signing Hawkins. I don't even know how many times I've seen Hawkins blow games.
The rotation is fine at the moment. But I still would feel a little more comfortable if Colon was part of it.
My question to you is, were you all up in arms about this when the signing first took place?
If not, then you are just speaking with the benefit of hindsight. As someone else said, the analogy of Prior is much more valid than Hawkins. Completely different kind of risk.
SoCal Pinstriper
06-02-08, 09:37 PM
exposed as an idiot,
http://www.nyyfans.com/communityStandards.php#4
If the move turned out to be a good one, it was an obvious move. If the move didn't work, it was an obvious non-move. Its really simple, you just cheat by using the future
conkermaniac
06-02-08, 11:45 PM
Colon was throwing in the high 80's over the winter. Even when he put up ERA's of 5.11 and 6.34 in the 06 and 07, at least he was still throwing in the 90's. No one could have guessed that he would suddenly be throwing in the mid-90's this year---he hasn't done this consistently in years, not even during his 2005 Cy Young campaign. I don't fault Cashman at all for not making a move on Colon; all signs were saying that he was washed up.
I do think the Hawkins signing was bad. He put up a 3.50 ERA in the NL (albeit mostly at Coors Field) with awful peripherals (under 5 K/9, 1.8 SO:BB). There was no way he was going to be successful, but even he was a safer bet than Colon.
So, you don't blame Cashman for not signing Colon since it looked like he was all washed up? Really?....Here's some info for all you Cashman backers; he was signed by Sox for l8K (chump change) a month to go to minors. If he did not make majors by June, he could back out of contract. Are you telling me that Yanks could not afford these pennies to see if this guy could pitch?...I'll bet you're one of these guys who did not want to sign Manny off irrevocable waivers.(He's too old- he's zany- Yanks don't need him) blah, blah, too bad he's one of the great clutch hitters in baseball.....Yanks could have packaged Kennedy and Melky for a quality pitcher,but Cashman doesn't have the guts to make any move involving anyone that might be considered "old", or could be considered an interference in his "youth movement"....The only thing this team he has put together has going for it, is the fact the AL is as weak as I've seen it in more than a decade.......
CallOfTheCrow
06-03-08, 09:47 AM
So, you don't blame Cashman for not signing Colon since it looked like he was all washed up? Really?....Here's some info for all you Cashman backers; he was signed by Sox for l8K (chump change) a month to go to minors. If he did not make majors by June, he could back out of contract. Are you telling me that Yanks could not afford these pennies to see if this guy could pitch?...I'll bet you're one of these guys who did not want to sign Manny off irrevocable waivers.(He's too old- he's zany- Yanks don't need him) blah, blah, too bad he's one of the great clutch hitters in baseball.....Yanks could have packaged Kennedy and Melky for a quality pitcher,but Cashman doesn't have the guts to make any move involving anyone that might be considered "old", or could be considered an interference in his "youth movement"....The only thing this team he has put together has going for it, is the fact the AL is as weak as I've seen it in more than a decade.......
Pettitte? Clemens? Re-upping with Mussina?
Mr. Mxylsplk
06-03-08, 09:50 AM
Pettitte? Clemens? Re-upping with Mussina?
Seriously. It's one thing to think Colon was worth a flyer. It's another to make ignorant statements suggesting he has some allergy to older players.
puffyme
06-03-08, 09:28 PM
Colon will fall back down to earth. Hard. Count on it.
And you know this how? Even if he does he has already earned his salary. 1.5 million contact was well worth the risk. With the Yanks resources it was a no brainer even if Colon never tossed a pitch.
And you know this how? Even if he does he has already earned his salary. 1.5 million contact was well worth the risk. With the Yanks resources it was a no brainer even if Colon never tossed a pitch.Let's just sign every major league and minor league free agent to a $1.5MM contract to cover all our bases.
Realistically, if it came down to Bartolo Colon making or breaking our season, we're hosed anyway - so why risk the $1.5MM? He's not pitching any better than Rasner, for example, and I still think that in spite of 18 innings of league average pitching this year he's going to be a disappointment.
Two years running of ~80 OPS+, arm problems and horrible conditioning. Enough said. If he pans out for Boston, good for them. Let's get over it. I certainly don't consider it a mark against Cash.
If the move turned out to be a good one, it was an obvious move. If the move didn't work, it was an obvious non-move. Its really simple, you just cheat by using the future
In fairness to the OP, his actual point is a legitimate one, if badly stated. Not that Colon was obviously going to perform, but that at $1.2m, the potential downside was negligible, and the potential upside certainly outweighed it. Even if there was only a 1:10 chance that he would contribute, when you look at the cost of league-average pitching, those are fair odds to take a bet on.
And while I don't think anyone was outraged or howling in protest when the Red Sox signed Colon, it did raise some eyebrows in the baseball press that they got him so cheap. Not that anyone expected him to shift the balance of power in the AL or anything, but I think most people certainly would have agreed that he had more upside than most $1.2m/year free agents. I think the sense was that a number of baseball execs felt like they would have put in offers if they had known he could be had for that kind of money.
Colon wasn't on anyone's short list to be a dominant starter, and there was (and may still be) every reason to think that he was probably washed up, but he is still a brand-name starting pitcher, and even a moderate possibility that he's got something left in the tank is worth taking a little risk on. If you sign ten Bartolo Colons for $1.2m each, chances are pretty good that they will contribute at least as much value as the average $12m free agent, even if 8 or 9 of them bust completely.
It's not accurate to compare Colon to other market-value signings. Colon was a "value bet," like in poker, when you bet on a pot that you'll probably lose, but the size of the pot is still big enough to justify the cost of the bet.
Hindsight or no, the OP's point is correct. The Colon signing was pure upside. If he never pitched a single inning this year, nobody would be talking about it, because it wouldn't hurt the Red Sox or limit their flexibility or prevent them from signing other players or any of it. They did get lucky on it, but even if they hadn't got lucky, even if Colon had failed utterly, it's still good strategy to collect high-upside talent for nothing when you can. If you thow enough of it at the wall, something's bound to stick.
In fairness to the OP, his actual point is a legitimate one, if badly stated. Not that Colon was obviously going to perform, but that at $1.2m, the potential downside was negligible, and the potential upside certainly outweighed it. Even if there was only a 1:10 chance that he would contribute, when you look at the cost of league-average pitching, those are fair odds to take a bet on.
And while I don't think anyone was outraged or howling in protest when the Red Sox signed Colon, it did raise some eyebrows in the baseball press that they got him so cheap. Not that anyone expected him to shift the balance of power in the AL or anything, but I think most people certainly would have agreed that he had more upside than most $1.2m/year free agents. I think the sense was that a number of baseball execs felt like they would have put in offers if they had known he could be had for that kind of money.
I think that's probably a mistaken impression. If Colon's agent wasn't in contact with just about every front office searching for some signs of interest, he wasn't doing his job. I'd wager that every club had some semblance of an equal shot at him, and all of them had some idea of what it might take to sign him.
I think that's probably a mistaken impression. If Colon's agent wasn't in contact with just about every front office searching for some signs of interest, he wasn't doing his job. I'd wager that every club had some semblance of an equal shot at him, and all of them had some idea of what it might take to sign him.
So the White Sox, Astros, Cardinals, and Mets all balked at a $1.2m minor league one-year deal? Seriously, this doesn't even cost a roster spot!
What would you speculate their real level of interest was? $800k and no more?
Colon wanted a guaranteed two-year, big-league deal. That's what his agent was shopping for, but they couldn't find a taker after the Mets backed out. Rumors were that Colon wanted $5-8m per.
The Red Sox lowballed him at the approach of spring training with an incentive-packed offer and he signed. Do you really think that none of the teams that were talking to him when he wanted a two-year major-league deal wouldn't have talked a little more about a dirt-cheap minor-league deal for one year?
The Colon signing definitely raised a few eyebrows at the time. Intrepid googlers can probably dig up actual quotes and such. But more to the point, if none of the teams that were shopping him wanted to pay that price, what were they looking for?
So the White Sox, Astros, Cardinals, and Mets all balked at a $1.2m minor league one-year deal? Seriously, this doesn't even cost a roster spot!
What would you speculate their real level of interest was? $800k and no more?
Colon wanted a guaranteed two-year, big-league deal. That's what his agent was shopping for, but they couldn't find a taker after the Mets backed out. Rumors were that Colon wanted $5-8m per.
The Red Sox lowballed him at the approach of spring training with an incentive-packed offer and he signed. Do you really think that none of the teams that were talking to him when he wanted a two-year major-league deal wouldn't have talked a little more about a dirt-cheap minor-league deal for one year?
The Colon signing definitely raised a few eyebrows at the time. Intrepid googlers can probably dig up actual quotes and such. But more to the point, if none of the teams that were shopping him wanted to pay that price, what were they looking for?
I don't have any inside information; my post was entirely speculation ... but if his agent didn't make any calls to other teams showing interest after the Sox made their offer to allow them a chance to beat Theo's lowball, Colon desperately needs a new agent.
I don't have any inside information; my post was entirely speculation ... but if his agent didn't make any calls to other teams showing interest after the Sox made their offer to allow them a chance to beat Theo's lowball, Colon desperately needs a new agent.
I don't want to derail the conversation, but this is foolish in so many ways that it's not even worth trying to list them. Multi-million-dollar business dealings are not like late-night eBay bids with no ability to negotiate and noway to take them back.
Fat, washed-up pitcher wants multiyear big-league contract, can't get one. Getting dangerously close to spring training. Observant baseball exec calls him up and says "hey big guy, I have no interest in getting in a bidding war this late in the off-season nor in being a patsy for you to use to try and drive up the price. But if you want a chance to pitch for a winning team, I'm ready to give you a shot. This is straight commission, though. You don't perform, you get nothing. You perform, you get paid, and paid well. But if I hear anything about you trying to nickel-and-dime me on the front-end money, you can forget it and go back to shopping for a deal in March and good luck."
Maybe he doesn't take the bait. Maybe he decides to push his luck by shopping this to other teams (and maybe he gets burned and ends up with no takers). Or maybe he figures it's a bird in the hand (and it's February) and I'll take what I can get.
There are a lot of ways to avoid being a puppet in a bidding war. Just because you don't know about them all doesn't mean that baseball agents are stupid and incompetent.
JL25and3
06-04-08, 02:10 PM
In fairness to the OP, his actual point is a legitimate one, if badly stated. Not that Colon was obviously going to perform, but that at $1.2m, the potential downside was negligible, and the potential upside certainly outweighed it. Even if there was only a 1:10 chance that he would contribute, when you look at the cost of league-average pitching, those are fair odds to take a bet on.But there were a ton of guys like that out there. You can't sign all of them, and there's no way to know in advance that Colon is the one who's going to work out (if, in fact, he does).
But there were a ton of guys like that out there. You can't sign all of them, and there's no way to know in advance that Colon is the one who's going to work out (if, in fact, he does).
I would say that anytime you can sign a pitcher who is 3 years removed from Cy Young discussion for a one-year minor-league deal under $1.5m, you probably should. If you can find such pitchers ten times a year, I think your money will go a lot further than $15m spent on the open market.
Bartolo Colon's upside was high and narrow. Meaning there was a very good chance that he would not be a mlb-caliber starter, but if he was, that he would be a good one. This is different from wandering journeymen who have never been much above replacement value, or old pitchers who are just on the wrong side of steady decline.
Most of the players who sign $1m minor-league deals are guys who could not do any better. The way this deal is structured, Colon was in line to make up to ~$6m as an everyday mlb starter, but only if he pitched well enough to stay in the rotation. That gave Colon the chance to earn the money he was seeking, while still shielding the team from most of the risk that he'd be a bust.
You're right that not every player who signs a minor-league deal for short change is a good bet. Colon was a unique case, with a lot more upside but also a lot more risk than most.
I would say that anytime you can sign a pitcher who is 3 years removed from Cy Young discussion for a one-year minor-league deal under $1.5m, you probably should. If you can find such pitchers ten times a year, I think your money will go a lot further than $15m spent on the open market.The problem is, you can't. There aren't many folks out there in similar situations. And the reason is, if there is any far-fetched optimism whatsoever about a players ability to "rediscover the magic," they aren't going to be had for $1.5MM in this market. There are very few starting pitchers that crash and burn as hard as Colon, with the injuries that he has had, with the poor conditioning that he has had, that rebound.
Bartolo Colon's upside was high and narrow. Meaning there was a very good chance that he would not be a mlb-caliber starter, but if he was, that he would be a good one. This is different from wandering journeymen who have never been much above replacement value, or old pitchers who are just on the wrong side of steady decline.Are we ready to prounounce him a "good" starting pitcher after 18 innings pitched? With two quality starts, in 3 starts total against KC (83 OPS+), Seattle (92 OPS+) and Baltimore (95 OPS+)? When LH batters on those lousy offenses have a 127 OPS+ against him?
Let's look back at 2006 and 2007, shall we?
2006
3 of his first four starts he pitched 19 innings, ERA of 2.84. In the other start he got absolutely tattood by our very own NYY and delivered an ERA+ of 89 over 57 innings.
2007
Colon actually pitched well through his first 6 starts... 5 quality starts, ERA of 3.69 at that point. Closed out the year with an ERA+ of 72 over 99 innings.
Colon draws the Mariners and Orioles again in his next two starts. Let's not all judge this signing by 18 innings against sub standard offenses. Even if Colon has rediscovered an ability to pitch, I doubt he can stay healthy long enough for this to really be a signing that makes a material difference.
The problem is, you can't. There aren't many folks out there in similar situations.
Exactly the point, and exactly why Colon was able to slip through the cracks. Whether in real estate, stocks, or baseball players, the best places to find hidden value are in risky rarities that are hard to value. Moneyball illustrated this principle much better than I ever could. The point of "Moneyball" wasn't that OBP is more important than other stats, but that it was overlooked and therefore undervalued.
My analogy of signing all these recent Cy Young winners was in response to the specific post I quoted which said these guys are everywhere and you can't sign them all. Of course if they really were everywhere, they'd be fairly priced and you could never snag one for a peanuts minor league contract.
There are very few starting pitchers that crash and burn as hard as Colon, with the injuries that he has had, with the poor conditioning that he has had, that rebound.Are we ready to prounounce him a "good" starting pitcher after 18 innings pitched?
Again, the point is that the Colon deal will have been a good signing even if he never pitches another game. In fact, it would have been a good signing even if he had been a complete bust, which was in fact the most probable outcome. That's the point. It didn't cost anything. However slim the possibility that he would recover any of his old magic, if you can get exposure to that possibility for essentially nothing, take it.
Lottery tickets are not usually a good investment, but on very rare occasions (this real, bear with me), they actually can be. If the jackpot becomes big enough that it pays out more than the dollar value of all the tickets bought that day, then even though most of the individuals who bought tickets will lose, as a group they will have won more than they paid. If it were somehow possible to buy all of the tickets, or to repeat this day an infinite number of times, then an individual ticket-buyer could make it a can't-lose proposition.
This is the idea behind "value investing" or "value bets." This is also exactly how the draft/farm system works. You sign a bunch of promising players, knowing that most of them will bust, but anticipating that the good ones will produce more value than you lost on the bad ones.
The biggest advantage for the Red Sox was not so much getting Colon for short money, but getting him on a minor-league deal. They could have paid that much on a signing bonus to a player who was years away from even potentially having the same upside as Colon. Colon had a small likelihood of being any good, but that small likelihood included the very real possibility of being one of the best pitchers in the game, which he was, a couple years ago. It only requires a small fraction of a chance of that outcome to justify the trivial risk the Red Sox took to sign him.
Exactly the point, and exactly why Colon was able to slip through the cracks. Whether in real estate, stocks, or baseball players, the best places to find hidden value are in risky rarities that are hard to value. Moneyball illustrated this principle much better than I ever could. The point of "Moneyball" wasn't that OBP is more important than other stats, but that it was overlooked and therefore undervalued.
My analogy of signing all these recent Cy Young winners was in response to the specific post I quoted which said these guys are everywhere and you can't sign them all. Of course if they really were everywhere, they'd be fairly priced and you could never snag one for a peanuts minor league contract.
Again, the point is that the Colon deal will have been a good signing even if he never pitches another game. In fact, it would have been a good signing even if he had been a complete bust, which was in fact the most probable outcome. That's the point. It didn't cost anything. However slim the possibility that he would recover any of his old magic, if you can get exposure to that possibility for essentially nothing, take it.
Lottery tickets are not usually a good investment, but on very rare occasions (this real, bear with me), they actually can be. If the jackpot becomes big enough that it pays out more than the dollar value of all the tickets bought that day, then even though most of the individuals who bought tickets will lose, as a group they will have won more than they paid. If it were somehow possible to buy all of the tickets, or to repeat this day an infinite number of times, then an individual ticket-buyer could make it a can't-lose proposition.
This is the idea behind "value investing" or "value bets." This is also exactly how the draft/farm system works. You sign a bunch of promising players, knowing that most of them will bust, but anticipating that the good ones will produce more value than you lost on the bad ones.
The biggest advantage for the Red Sox was not so much getting Colon for short money, but getting him on a minor-league deal. They could have paid that much on a signing bonus to a player who was years away from even potentially having the same upside as Colon. Colon had a small likelihood of being any good, but that small likelihood included the very real possibility of being one of the best pitchers in the game, which he was, a couple years ago. It only requires a small fraction of a chance of that outcome to justify the trivial risk the Red Sox took to sign him.This doesn't resonate with me. Even in Yankeeland, $1.5MM shouldn't be tossed around if the talent evaluators, team doctors, history, etc are all calling for that to be a bad investment. 18 innings of decent pitching against 3 horrible offenses sure is getting a lot of people excited.
JL25and3
06-05-08, 06:53 AM
I would say that anytime you can sign a pitcher who is 3 years removed from Cy Young discussion for a one-year minor-league deal under $1.5m, you probably should. Eh, I don't see fat 35-year-old pitchers coming back from shoulder surgery as a reasonable risk, even for that price. Shoulder injuries are the most damaging and the toughest to come back from, and poor overall conditioning certainly doesn't help. To my mind, that easily trumps wherever he was three years ago.
Besides, if the Yankees signed Colon, they were potentially taking Home Runs away from A-Rod :D. (Seriously? It's 18 innings from a fat guy with a bad shoulder. Let's not jump to conclusions that this was a "great" signing by the Sox yet).
TheoShmeo
06-05-08, 07:16 AM
Eh, I don't see fat 35-year-old pitchers coming back from shoulder surgery as a reasonable risk, even for that price. Shoulder injuries are the most damaging and the toughest to come back from, and poor overall conditioning certainly doesn't help. To my mind, that easily trumps wherever he was three years ago.
I'm surprised at that. When I heard the Sox signed Colon, my reaction was that the odds are good that he'll be useless but his upside matches his backside, so the $1.5 mm flier was a very good investment. I think that many teams would have been happy to risk $1.5 mm on a guy like him.
I agree with the poster who wrote that we don't exactly know what Colon will do going forward and it's true that there are always cheaper options within the system, but given that it takes at least 8 starters to get through most MLB seasons, if not more, and given that Colon was an elite pitcher a few years ago, this seemed like a move worth making.
I'm surprised at that. When I heard the Sox signed Colon, my reaction was that the odds are good that he'll be useless but his upside matches his backside, so the $1.5 mm flier was a very good investment. I think that many teams would have been happy to risk $1.5 mm on a guy like him.
I agree with the poster who wrote that we don't exactly know what Colon will do going forward and it's true that there are always cheaper options within the system, but given that it takes at least 8 starters to get through most MLB seasons, if not more, and given that Colon was an elite pitcher a few years ago, this seemed like a move worth making.Every team had a shot at him. I don't remember hearing anything about any competition for his services, and I do remember hearing a lot about him looking like a shell of his former self (e.g. wasn't even touching 90 on radar guns).
Again, so far after 18 innings and 2 quality starts against 3 sub-par offenses, Theo has to be pleased. We'll see.
effdamets
06-05-08, 10:24 AM
Every team had a shot at him. I don't remember hearing anything about any competition for his services, and I do remember hearing a lot about him looking like a shell of his former self (e.g. wasn't even touching 90 on radar guns).
Again, so far after 18 innings and 2 quality starts against 3 sub-par offenses, Theo has to be pleased. We'll see.
I'm predicting that by the time the Sox roll into the Stdium in early July, Colon will not be on the Boston roster.
knickfan23
06-05-08, 12:25 PM
This doesn't resonate with me. Even in Yankeeland, $1.5MM shouldn't be tossed around if the talent evaluators, team doctors, history, etc are all calling for that to be a bad investment. 18 innings of decent pitching against 3 horrible offenses sure is getting a lot of people excited.
They tossed 4 million to Hawkins and 2 million for Ensberg. How is that working out?
One has just been DFA and the other will be by July if he keeps up. I mean, we are the kings of wasting money.
I STILL would go nowhere near Colon. A couple of lucky starts against bad offenses if you ask me...
There's a very simple answer: So A-Rod can continue owning him.
They tossed 4 million to Hawkins and 2 million for Ensberg. How is that working out?
One has just been DFA and the other will be by July if he keeps up. I mean, we are the kings of wasting money.Neither Hawkins nor Ensberg are poorly conditioned players with major shoulder injuries three years removed from success, and although neither has executed as hoped they both were signed to fill known holes in our roster.
I didn't like the Hawkins signing but I understood it. What were the alternatives? By letting Viz walk we got a sandwich pick and we got one year of Hawk versus two of the Viz. Hawkins has made over 60 appearances for 7 years straight. He has actually been very reliable. His results last year were good, and overall since 2002 he's been a good reliever. So far he's been a major disappointment - which isn't shocking to many - but his struggles are being magnified by the loss of Bruney, Ohlendorf pitching poorly, and the state of the bullpen in general. He's still got time, and whether we like it or not he'll have plenty of chances to make up for his rough start. We'll see if he can settle down.
Morgan should have actually filled a need on this team. He mashes left handed pitching (120 OPS+ for his career, 152 OPS+ just two years ago). The thought was he'd spell Giambi against tough LHers and play some 1B, also spell A-Rod from time to time. They signed him to a non-guaranteed deal and brought him to spring training. The problem was that his bat performed well enough in spring training to convince the Yankees that they'd found a 120 OPS+ player against LHP for $1.75MM. Ensberg went into a nose dive; clearly it didn't work out. Again, I get the logic though.
Colon? 18 innings pitched does not make me a believer.
knickfan23
06-05-08, 01:37 PM
Neither Hawkins nor Ensberg are poorly conditioned players with major shoulder injuries three years removed from success, and although neither has executed as hoped they both were signed to fill known holes in our roster.
I didn't like the Hawkins signing but I understood it. What were the alternatives? By letting Viz walk we got a sandwich pick and we got one year of Hawk versus two of the Viz. Hawkins has made over 60 appearances for 7 years straight. He has actually been very reliable. His results last year were good, and overall since 2002 he's been a good reliever. So far he's been a major disappointment - which isn't shocking to many - but his struggles are being magnified by the loss of Bruney, Ohlendorf pitching poorly, and the state of the bullpen in general. He's still got time, and whether we like it or not he'll have plenty of chances to make up for his rough start. We'll see if he can settle down.
Morgan should have actually filled a need on this team. He mashes left handed pitching (120 OPS+ for his career, 152 OPS+ just two years ago). The thought was he'd spell Giambi against tough LHers and play some 1B, also spell A-Rod from time to time. They signed him to a non-guaranteed deal and brought him to spring training. The problem was that his bat performed well enough in spring training to convince the Yankees that they'd found a 120 OPS+ player against LHP for $1.75MM. Ensberg went into a nose dive; clearly it didn't work out. Again, I get the logic though.
Colon? 18 innings pitched does not make me a believer.
Hawkins has been reliable....just not good. There was plenty of evidence to suggest that he wasnt going to be good here. I saw him for 2 years in Chicago melt down and was forced to be traded. We saw him in Baltimore and salivated whenever he came into the game. That should be the ultimate red flag. He went to a no pressure situation in Colorado, did well and earned some money. It doesnt mean he deserved it from us.
Ensberg has had a peculiar drop in his statistics over the last 3 years. Very "Rich Aurilia" like. I think myself that he was one of those guys that should have been on "The Report". There was a reason very few teams want to sign him on the cheap last season.
Mr. Mxylsplk
06-05-08, 01:40 PM
Hawkins has been reliable....just not good. There was plenty of evidence to suggest that he wasnt going to be good here. I saw him for 2 years in Chicago melt down and was forced to be traded. We saw him in Baltimore and salivated whenever he came into the game. That should be the ultimate red flag. He went to a no pressure situation in Colorado, did well and earned some money. It doesnt mean he deserved it from us.
Ensberg has had a peculiar drop in his statistics over the last 3 years. Very "Rich Aurilia" like. I think myself that he was one of those guys that should have been on "The Report". There was a reason very few teams want to sign him on the cheap last season.
I'm confused. Are you trying to say the yanks should have signed Colon or should not have? Because it sure sounds like you're trying to illustrate why it would have been a risk not worth taking.
Hawkins has been reliable....just not good. There was plenty of evidence to suggest that he wasnt going to be good here. I saw him for 2 years in Chicago melt down and was forced to be traded. We saw him in Baltimore and salivated whenever he came into the game. That should be the ultimate red flag. He went to a no pressure situation in Colorado, did well and earned some money. It doesnt mean he deserved it from us.
Ensberg has had a peculiar drop in his statistics over the last 3 years. Very "Rich Aurilia" like. I think myself that he was one of those guys that should have been on "The Report". There was a reason very few teams want to sign him on the cheap last season.As I said, I wasn't a fan of the signing but I understand it. What were the alternatives? If there were none you can point to, why so critical? I'll admit, I didn't see the games - but his numbers while in Chicago look very respectable. I would take his 2004 results any day of the week. His numbers in Baltimore were about league average. And I'm not sure many pitchers consider pitching in Colorado a "no pressure" situation, epsecially considering that team out there actually made it to the World Series last year.
Ensberg has tailed off to be sure. Can't rule out PED's I suppose, but then why sign anybody? It was also possible that RH pitching found a hole in his swing and capitalized on it, that the Yankees thought he could sustain or improve on his numbers against LHP's with some work with K-Long, etc. It didn't turn out that way.
Again, I'm not saying I was pleased with the signings and certainly no one is pleased with the results. I'm just saying I understand them, and that the Colon, Hawkins and Ensberg transactions hardly prove that Theo is a mad scientist or that Cash is a tool.
WeekendWarrior
06-06-08, 09:39 AM
I hate the Red Sox, but I do give them credit for one upping Cashman yet again. It was an obvious move to make, and wasn't made.
We get it. "Obvious move to make, wasnt made, blah blah blah". You sound like a broken record. Ok oh great soothsayer, the next time there is a guy like Colon is available, I want you to start a thread, and scream at the top of the mountains that you think the yanks should take a chance on him and we shall see how it turns out. Let me remind you, the cost of signing such a high-risk player might keep the yankees from signing an international stud. (Yes, even the Yankees have a bottom line.) Until then, your fortune telling abilities are in question.
THEBOSS84
06-06-08, 09:41 AM
Typical crap from Hawkins yesterday. When he came in it was a 3-run deficit so he pitched well. When the Yankees narrowed the deficit to 1, he sh*t his pants on the mound.
DFA
JavyVazquezIsSick
06-06-08, 02:36 PM
I can't believe how many posts there are in this stupid thread.
rpbri2886
06-06-08, 09:02 PM
For what it's worth, Colon got lit up today by struggling Seattle.
effdamets
06-07-08, 01:06 AM
For what it's worth, Colon got lit up today by struggling Seattle.
...and THAT is the answer to the title question!!!!!
themgmt
06-07-08, 08:29 AM
When Colon gets shelled a few times you'll be singing a different tune.
1 shelling down, a couple more to go.
For what it's worth, Colon got lit up today by struggling Seattle.And so it begins...
YankeesAce4Life
06-09-08, 03:57 PM
We get it. "Obvious move to make, wasnt made, blah blah blah". You sound like a broken record. Ok oh great soothsayer, the next time there is a guy like Colon is available, I want you to start a thread, and scream at the top of the mountains that you think the yanks should take a chance on him and we shall see how it turns out. Let me remind you, the cost of signing such a high-risk player might keep the yankees from signing an international stud. (Yes, even the Yankees have a bottom line.) Until then, your fortune telling abilities are in question.
Wow, you're quite the comedian...don't quit your day job.:boring:
Oh yeah, signing such a high risk player like Colon would keep us from signing an international stud. I know, the Yankees can't afford what the Red Sox paid for him, but they can afford that $3M+ on the great LaTroy "Put me in with a 10 run lead and I'll pitch like an Ace" Hawkins? Don't tell me about how the Yankees have a bottom line. Did they have a bottom line when they wasted $46M on Igawa? Did they have a bottom line when they wasted $18 on Farnsworth? Did they have a bottom line when they wasted a ton of money on other failures? Don't tell me about bottom lines when this one wouldn't have made a dent in the Yankee payroll or in their scouting positions.
YankeesAce4Life
06-09-08, 03:57 PM
I can't believe how many posts there are in this stupid thread.
I can't believe you think/thought Javy Vasquez is sick. :o
YankeesAce4Life
06-09-08, 03:59 PM
Oh wow, Colon gets lit up in 1 game and he's getting slammed. Sorry, I'd rather have Colon get lit up in 1 game than have Hawkins come into the game with a lead and blow it. How many has he stunk up the joint already?
groovitude
06-09-08, 06:01 PM
I can't believe you think/thought Javy Vasquez is sick. :o
Since 2000, Javier Vazquez's lowest season ERA+ is 92, from 2004. Last season, Bartolo Colon's ERA+ was 72. That's a must-sign right there.
Here's another one: last season, Kei Igawa posted an ERA+ of 72. Remember how much we hated him last season? Well, Bartolo Colon pitched to the exact same tune. The big difference between the two is that Igawa stayed healthy throughout the year.
Here's one last comparison, just for laughs. Carl Pavano's 2005 campaign had him at 100 IP, a 4.23 ERA (89 ERA+), and a 1.470 WHIP. He went down with an injury, and never returned for the season. He was labeled a failure at season's end.
Colon did not even hit 100 IP last season. His ERA was two runs higher, and his ERA+ was at 72. His WHIP was 1.621. All of those numbers show worse performance and durability than Carl Pavano in '05.
How dare Cashman miss that signing. We'd be over .500 for certain.
YankeesAce4Life
06-09-08, 06:29 PM
How dare Cashman miss that signing. We'd be over .500 for certain.
I know, seriously! :mad:
:lol:
Forget about Bartolo Colon the real signing we missed out on was Kerry Wood, that will end up being the ultimate 20/20 hindsight move this year IMO.
mgpenguin
06-09-08, 07:48 PM
Forget about Bartolo Colon the real signing we missed out on was Kerry Wood, that will end up being the ultimate 20/20 hindsight move this year IMO.
I thought he didn't want to leave Chicago, or am I misremembering?
primetime714
06-09-08, 08:13 PM
I thought he didn't want to leave Chicago, or am I misremembering?
That is correct. Plus they gave him a nice 1 year deal to re-establish himself and a shot at closing.
Wow, you're quite the comedian...don't quit your day job.:boring:
Oh yeah, signing such a high risk player like Colon would keep us from signing an international stud. I know, the Yankees can't afford what the Red Sox paid for him, but they can afford that $3M+ on the great LaTroy "Put me in with a 10 run lead and I'll pitch like an Ace" Hawkins? Don't tell me about how the Yankees have a bottom line. Did they have a bottom line when they wasted $46M on Igawa? Did they have a bottom line when they wasted $18 on Farnsworth? Did they have a bottom line when they wasted a ton of money on other failures? Don't tell me about bottom lines when this one wouldn't have made a dent in the Yankee payroll or in their scouting positions.The connection you are obviously failing to make is that the Yankees obviously felt that they weren't wasting that money when they made those signings. They did feel like they'd be wasting the money that would have been needed to sign Colon. And who knows if Colon would have wanted more from the Yankees to not sign with the Sox?
This is where hindsight becomes your ally. Enjoy it.
I'll actually make a projection... I bet that Hawkins has a better second half than Colon. You want to take the opposing view? In the interests of full disclosure I think this partly because I don't see Colon having a second half - period.
Colon isn't that good.
Hawkins was never expected to be great. They didn't think any of the relievers were worth it. Hawkins is just here to eat innings until the kids are ready.
YankeesAce4Life
06-11-08, 11:27 AM
I'll actually make a projection... I bet that Hawkins has a better second half than Colon. You want to take the opposing view? In the interests of full disclosure I think this partly because I don't see Colon having a second half - period.
Yeah, well Hawkins probably won't be having a second half with the Yankees...so your projection could probably be thrown out the window.
Yeah, the Yankees signing...LaTroy "I love to give up runs in big situations" Hawkins...greatest move ever. :o
I'll take a 400lb. Sidney Ponson, a 400lb. Bartolo Colon and a 1 armed, one legged Carl Pavano over Hawkins any day of the week.
groovitude
06-11-08, 12:02 PM
Yeah, well Hawkins probably won't be having a second half with the Yankees...so your projection could probably be thrown out the window.
Yeah, the Yankees signing...LaTroy "I love to give up runs in big situations" Hawkins...greatest move ever. :o
I'll take a 400lb. Sidney Ponson, a 400lb. Bartolo Colon and a 1 armed, one legged Carl Pavano over Hawkins any day of the week.Just because he doesn't have a second half with the Yankees doesn't mean he won't have a second half. I'll be happy to join up with False1's prediction.
Also -- just for giggles, the two pitchers you mentioned that you'd take over Hawkins? Here's what they've done in the last two weeks:
Ponson: 11 IP, 6 ER, 4.91 ERA, released by the Texas Rangers, who are dead-last in MLB for overall team ERA
Colon: 11 IP, 7 ER, 5.73 ERA, got smacked around by the Seattle Mariners
themgmt
06-11-08, 12:09 PM
Oh wow, Colon gets lit up in 1 game and he's getting slammed. Sorry, I'd rather have Colon get lit up in 1 game than have Hawkins come into the game with a lead and blow it. How many has he stunk up the joint already?
Oh wow, Colon pitches a couple good games against horrible teams and he's suddenly a "how did we not sign this guy"
Shelling #2 coming today
Yankee Tripper
06-11-08, 12:12 PM
I'll take a 400lb. Sidney Ponson, a 400lb. Bartolo Colon and a 1 armed, one legged Carl Pavano over Hawkins any day of the week.
Ponson & Pavano suck and are bad teammates. Plus we DFA'd Ponson once, why go down that road again.
I don't know enough about Colon to comment on if he is a good teammate or not but not signing him in the off season was not a mistake IMO.
Hawkins has been bad but I at least applauded the 1-year signing of Hawkins who I thought would give us league average or better 7th inning relief work. He simply has been dreadful. In the past however he was pretty good in setup, he seemed to meltdown in the closer role in MIN, BAL, CHI & SF but in lower pressure situations he always seemed OK. Granted these aren't the guys that will lead your pen but they can provide valuable innings. Plus he's supposedly a very good teamate.
YankeesAce4Life
06-11-08, 12:14 PM
Ponson & Pavano suck and are bad teammates. Plus we DFA'd Ponson once, why go down that road again.
I don't know enough about Colon to comment on if he is a good teammate or not but not signing him in the off season was not a mistake IMO.
Hawkins has been bad but I at least applauded the 1-year signing of Hawkins who I thought would give us league average or better 7th inning relief work. He simply has been dreadful. In the past however he was pretty good in setup, he seemed to meltdown in the closer role in MIN, BAL, CHI & SF but in lower pressure situations he always seemed OK. Granted these aren't the guys that will lead your pen but they can provide valuable innings. Plus he's supposedly a very good teamate.
You obviously didn't get the joke about Ponson or Pavano. I said I'd rather have them fat or injured than have a healthy Hawkins. Hawkins should of never been signed. Bad signing.
YankeesAce4Life
06-11-08, 12:15 PM
Just because he doesn't have a second half with the Yankees doesn't mean he won't have a second half. I'll be happy to join up with False1's prediction.
Also -- just for giggles, the two pitchers you mentioned that you'd take over Hawkins? Here's what they've done in the last two weeks:
Ponson: 11 IP, 6 ER, 4.91 ERA, released by the Texas Rangers, who are dead-last in MLB for overall team ERA
Colon: 11 IP, 7 ER, 5.73 ERA, got smacked around by the Seattle Mariners
Another one who didn't get the joke. :o
groovitude
06-11-08, 12:22 PM
Another one who didn't get the joke. :o
The joke is your insistence that, during the offseason, Colon was such an obvious signing and that Hawkins was the worst possible thing Cash could do.
Do me a favor and take a look back at this (http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=5170748&postcount=76) and tell me how "obvious" the situation is.
YankeesAce4Life
06-11-08, 12:31 PM
The joke is your insistence that, during the offseason, Colon was such an obvious signing and that Hawkins was the worst possible thing Cash could do.
Do me a favor and take a look back at this (http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=5170748&postcount=76) and tell me how "obvious" the situation is.
Ok, I said that you didn't get my joke and now you're calling my posts a joke? That's pretty ridiculous and also against community standards!
groovitude
06-11-08, 12:59 PM
Ok, I said that you didn't get my joke and now you're calling my posts a joke? That's pretty ridiculous and also against community standards!My sincere apologies for offending your sensibilities. I openly invite moderators to PM me if they have further issue with that post or any of mine in general. That said, I will try to rephrase the mindset of my previous two posts into a less offensive manner.
The initial response to your 'joke' -- outside of the reference to a mostly limbless Carl Pavano -- fit into the general argument that you've been making so far in this thread, and therefore did not seem to be any more of a 'joke' than your argument so far. Before you call shennanigans, let me explain. Both Colon's and Ponson's ERA numbers are currently over league average, while Hawkins's is below. The only major difference between that and your main argument is the inclusion of Ponson.
Claiming that signing Colon and not signing Hawkins would be the move to make seems to me like a claim made only with the 20/20 vision that hindsight gives. Please do visit this (http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=5170748&postcount=76) and tell me what you think the move to make is.
YankeesAce4Life
06-11-08, 01:41 PM
My sincere apologies for offending your sensibilities. I openly invite moderators to PM me if they have further issue with that post or any of mine in general. That said, I will try to rephrase the mindset of my previous two posts into a less offensive manner.
The initial response to your 'joke' -- outside of the reference to a mostly limbless Carl Pavano -- fit into the general argument that you've been making so far in this thread, and therefore did not seem to be any more of a 'joke' than your argument so far. Before you call shennanigans, let me explain. Both Colon's and Ponson's ERA numbers are currently over league average, while Hawkins's is below. The only major difference between that and your main argument is the inclusion of Ponson.
Claiming that signing Colon and not signing Hawkins would be the move to make seems to me like a claim made only with the 20/20 vision that hindsight gives. Please do visit this (http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=5170748&postcount=76) and tell me what you think the move to make is.
Me even mentioning Ponson or Pavano was the joke and even with how bad or injured they are it's better having them than LaTroy Hawkins anyday of the week. Hawkins was a horrendous signing.
groovitude
06-11-08, 01:54 PM
Me even mentioning Ponson or Pavano was the joke and even with how bad or injured they are it's better having them than LaTroy Hawkins anyday of the week. Hawkins was a horrendous signing.
What part of the numbers I provided proves that, before the benefit of seeing how Hawkins has pitched so far these season, proves that Hawkins was a horrendous signing? Bolding it does not help illustrate this. A 140 ERA+ coming into this season speaks volumes otherwise.
Mentioning Ponson wasn't all that funny of a joke, either, especially when you're using it to bolster your position that Hawkins was an awful signing while Colon was an obvious one. Ponson and Colon were right on track with one another this past offseason. Both posted atrocious ERAs in the past two seasons (5.11 and 6.34 for Colon; 6.25 and 6.93 for Ponson) and both have been absolutely beleaguered by injuries -- both to the point where these two starters did not break 100 IP in either of the last two seasons.
LaTroy Hawkins has pitched 26.7 IP this year to the tune of a 6.08 ERA. Bartolo Colon, last year, pitched 99.3 IP to the tune of a 6.34 ERA. Which hurts a team more?
YankeesAce4Life
06-11-08, 02:09 PM
What part of the numbers I provided proves that, before the benefit of seeing how Hawkins has pitched so far these season, proves that Hawkins was a horrendous signing? Bolding it does not help illustrate this. A 140 ERA+ coming into this season speaks volumes otherwise.
Mentioning Ponson wasn't all that funny of a joke, either, especially when you're using it to bolster your position that Hawkins was an awful signing while Colon was an obvious one. Ponson and Colon were right on track with one another this past offseason. Both posted atrocious ERAs in the past two seasons (5.11 and 6.34 for Colon; 6.25 and 6.93 for Ponson) and both have been absolutely beleaguered by injuries -- both to the point where these two starters did not break 100 IP in either of the last two seasons.
LaTroy Hawkins has pitched 26.7 IP this year to the tune of a 6.08 ERA. Bartolo Colon, last year, pitched 99.3 IP to the tune of a 6.34 ERA. Which hurts a team more?
Let's just drop it and agree to disagree that you didn't get the joke.
JL25and3
06-11-08, 02:17 PM
Me even mentioning Ponson or Pavano was the joke and even with how bad or injured they are it's better having them than LaTroy Hawkins anyday of the week. Hawkins was a horrendous signing.It didn't seem like a joke to me, either. You said that they're fat and hurt, but still better than Hawkins. Where's the so-called humor?
groovitude
06-11-08, 02:18 PM
Let's just drop it and agree to disagree that you didn't get the joke.I'm happy to concede that I don't "get your joke," but the comparison between the two is no less valid. If you'd like to continue this discussion without mention of Mr. Ponson, I'll be happy to oblige.
It doesn't change Colon's numbers, though. He still pitched fewer than 100 IP the last two seasons at awful ERAs. What good is a starter that cannot pitch 100 IP in a season, going down to injury both times? Why would you pick up a broken commodity?
And, once more, I'll ask that you review the team's position and the numbers that I posted here (http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=5170748&postcount=76). I hate to be pushy and continue to ask, but I'm really very interested in your opinion on the numbers. (I did considerable research to generate that post, and to have it callously ignored hurts my feelings just as much as my earlier offending post hurt yours, I'm sure.)
groovitude
06-11-08, 03:03 PM
Oh wow, Colon pitches a couple good games against horrible teams and he's suddenly a "how did we not sign this guy"
Shelling #2 coming todayI was looking at MLB.com just a minute ago and I thought of this post. I checked out the pitching matchup for the Boston-Baltimore game and saw something I hadn't heard about under the snippet about Colon.
The six runs he allowed against the Mariners weren't all earned. Only three of them were. There were three errors -- two by Colon, one by Lowell. They scored a run in the inning that Lowell booted a ball, but otherwise those two unearned runs are still Colon's fault.
If you add those back into Colon's earned run count, his season ERA goes from an above-average 3.91 to a much uglier 4.70. Furthermore, the stat I cited earlier -- Colon's past two weeks, going 11 IP for 7 ER to the tune of a 5.73 ERA -- gets yet more ludicrous. It'd be 11 IP for 9 ER to the tune of a 7.36 ERA.
Let's see where he goes from here. His start tonight is against the Baltimore Orioles, who he faced in the last two weeks, who tagged him for four runs (all earned) in six innings. (These, by the way, are the Orioles who are 12th out of 14 American League teams in runs scored.)
Oh wow, Colon pitches a couple good games against horrible teams and he's suddenly a "how did we not sign this guy"
Shelling #2 coming today
If that was a shelling, you have pretty high standards.
If that was a shelling, you have pretty high standards.Can't argue the results today. Gotta be pleased with that. But let's not kid ourselves. He's had 5 starts, ALL against sub par or even horrible offenses and his WHIP going into tonight was still 1.39...
2 starts against Seattle - 13th in the AL in runs/game
2 starts against Baltimore - 10th in the AL in runs/game
1 start against KC - 14th (last) in the AL in runs/game
Heck, that Baltimore offense only scored TWO RUNS against Timlin today, which tells you a lot about their capabilities. ;)
If he's pounding out quality starts against Texas, Boston, NYY in August I will humbly tip my cap.
Can't argue the results today. Gotta be pleased with that. But let's not kid ourselves. He's had 5 starts, ALL against sub par or even horrible offenses and his WHIP going into tonight was still 1.39...
2 starts against Seattle - 13th in the AL in runs/game
2 starts against Baltimore - 10th in the AL in runs/game
1 start against KC - 14th (last) in the AL in runs/game
Heck, that Baltimore offense only scored TWO RUNS against Timlin today, which tells you a lot about their capabilities. ;)
If he's pounding out quality starts against Texas, Boston, NYY in August I will humbly tip my cap.
All of that is true, but his slider looked good tonight, and he was spotting a low 90s fastball pretty well. I'll defer making a judgment about his performance against better offensive teams until after he pitches against them. So far, he's pitched far better than the Sox had any right to expect.
On the other hand, if we see him getting quality starts against Boston in August, something will have gone horribly wrong.
Prison Mike
06-11-08, 10:15 PM
Didn't we just split a series against the KC Royals- a horrible offense? It's easy to write the guy off because he's blowing away bad teams- but we're not, and he would have been useful.
TheoShmeo
06-11-08, 10:32 PM
Didn't we just split a series against the KC Royals- a horrible offense? It's easy to write the guy off because he's blowing away bad teams- but we're not, and he would have been useful.
Furthermore, the fact remains that all pitchers are going to get their fair share of starts against the weaker teams. If Colon is able to win 75% of his starts against the likes of Baltimore, Seattle and KC, and let's say split against the better offensive teams, then the signing at $1.5 mm will have been a steal. Frankly, given that Colon has been a good bridge while DMat and Buck have been hurt, I would say it's already paid big dividends, even if he peters out to some extent.
Furthermore, the fact remains that all pitchers are going to get their fair share of starts against the weaker teams. If Colon is able to win 75% of his starts against the likes of Baltimore, Seattle and KC, and let's say split against the better offensive teams, then the signing at $1.5 mm will have been a steal. Frankly, given that Colon has been a good bridge while DMat and Buck have been hurt, I would say it's already paid big dividends, even if he peters out to some extent.I can't disagree with any of this... I'm really speaking to posters that seem to indicate that not signing Colon was some Colossally moronic oversight on Cashman's part. I'll take an 80% win % from any starting pitcher any day. I happen to think that a) Colon has benefitted from facing nothing but abysmal offenses and b) even if he's regained some capability I doubt his ability to stay healthy.
Clearly Theo's got to be thrilled so far. We'll see what happens when he faces some tougher outs and racks up some innings.
groovitude
06-12-08, 12:09 AM
Didn't we just split a series against the KC Royals- a horrible offense? It's easy to write the guy off because he's blowing away bad teams- but we're not, and he would have been useful.Like False1, I won't argue that Colon hasn't been doing a good job of keeping his team in games, and that I'll take that kind of win percentage from one of my starters any day of the week. Like him, though, the main thing I'm arguing against here is that missing him this offseason was not a colossal misplay -- and tracking Colon's numbers this year is more waiting for him to revert the form he's shown over the last two years. He starts strong for a few starts and then nosedives into awfulness and then gets shelved with an injury.
I don't know how useful he would've been to us during the KC series, though. We split with them, yes; but the two games we lost were a 2-1 game and a 3-2 game. That's 18 IP and 5 ER for a team ERA of 2.50. I'd hardly pin those two losses on the pitching; that's on the offense (or, if you recall the games, you may want to throw some credit for the losses to Ed Montague).
TheoShmeo
06-12-08, 05:27 AM
Like False1, I won't argue that Colon hasn't been doing a good job of keeping his team in games, and that I'll take that kind of win percentage from one of my starters any day of the week. Like him, though, the main thing I'm arguing against here is that missing him this offseason was not a colossal misplay -- and tracking Colon's numbers this year is more waiting for him to revert the form he's shown over the last two years. He starts strong for a few starts and then nosedives into awfulness and then gets shelved with an injury.
I don't know how useful he would've been to us during the KC series, though. We split with them, yes; but the two games we lost were a 2-1 game and a 3-2 game. That's 18 IP and 5 ER for a team ERA of 2.50. I'd hardly pin those two losses on the pitching; that's on the offense (or, if you recall the games, you may want to throw some credit for the losses to Ed Montague).
20-20 is always a bad way to judge trades and signings. The decision is always made without the benefit of the results, obviously. Not signing Colon was not an epic screw up by Cashman or anyone else.
I have a feeling that $1.5 mm was lower than other teams, including the NYY, thought it would take to sign him, and that many teams would have done the deal for that amount. But either way, Colon being useless this year would not have been a shock. It was a smart flier for the Sox to take given his upside, but it was stil a flier.
yanksphan
06-12-08, 05:55 AM
If that was a shelling, you have pretty high standards.
Heh....I see what you did there, you read a prediction, waited until the game was over, and then made a sarcastic comment to draw emphasis to the poster's incorrect prediction.
Good stuff YASS. Original too! :P
Heh....I see what you did there, you read a prediction, waited until the game was over, and then made a sarcastic comment to draw emphasis to the poster's incorrect prediction.
Good stuff YASS. Original too! :P
Well, he was wrong. I had to wait until the game was over because he wasn't wrong until then. I couldn't tell him he was wrong until he actually was wrong. See how that works?
I give him credit for being boldly confident, though.
yanksphan
06-12-08, 06:10 AM
Well, he was wrong. I had to wait until the game was over because he wasn't wrong until then. I couldn't tell him he was wrong until he actually was wrong. See how that works?
I give him credit for being boldly confident, though.
Imagine that - a baseball prediction that was incorrect. That's got to be the first time that's ever happened. Glad you were there to document the historic occasion.
Imagine that - a baseball prediction that was incorrect. That's got to be the first time that's ever happened. Glad you were there to document the historic occasion.
See? Now that's sarcasm.
Of course it happens all the time. People make bold predictions and then other people remind them that they were wrong. Why does this one occurrence among so many bother you so much?
yanksphan
06-12-08, 06:41 AM
See? Now that's sarcasm.
Of course it happens all the time. People make bold predictions and then other people remind them that they were wrong. Why does this one occurrence among so many bother you so much?
Get your feet off our coffee table....?
Besides, now that I think about it - the OP was probably correct. I'll bet Colon was involved in a hell of a shelling at the all you can eat shrimp banquet after the game. Probably still going strong....
Let's just drop it and agree to disagree that you didn't get the joke.
The reason he didn't get the "joke" was because there was no joke.
YankeesAce4Life
06-12-08, 09:23 AM
The reason he didn't get the "joke" was because there was no joke.
You didn't get it either....it's not that easy to get jokes across the internet.
And by the way? What are you? His bodyguard or spokesperson? :o
JL25and3
06-12-08, 09:48 AM
You didn't get it either....it's not that easy to get jokes across the internet.
And by the way? What are you? His bodyguard or spokesperson? :oSeems like a lot of people didn't get it. And it's pretty easy to get them across, but only if there's some actual, y'know, humor involved.
YankeesAce4Life
06-12-08, 09:53 AM
Seems like a lot of people didn't get it. And it's pretty easy to get them across, but only if there's some actual, y'know, humor involved.
One thing I have noticed around here is that some people just have bland senses of humor. Everything is just so serious. :o
Get a grip.
groovitude
06-12-08, 02:08 PM
One thing I have noticed around here is that some people just have bland senses of humor. Everything is just so serious. :o
Get a grip.I'd say I have a pretty good sense of humour; heck, I made my signature, and I've noticed at least one other poster using it as well.
I'd also say I have a pretty good grip on things. I'm sufficiently comfortable with myself to address the parts of your argument that you've directed at me; I'm also comfortable enough with my position that Colon's signing in the offseason was not obvious, and that Hawkins's signing was a rational move to make this offseason that I have directly addressed the points you've made, especially those directed specifically at me, and done a considerable amount of number-hunting to support that and to benefit you.
Speaking of which, there's a post I'd love to hear your opinion on. You can find it by clicking here. (http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=5170748&postcount=76)
Yankee Fan in Boston
06-16-08, 09:35 PM
OK, so, as expected, Colon gets rocked and leaves the game with a stiff back... How do we feel now?
teknetic
06-16-08, 10:44 PM
He looked so horribly out of shape standing up at the plate taking hacks. I'm astounded at how this guy can be referred to as an athelte. Guys like CC and Boomer are fat, but Colon looks like a baloon on the verge of popping.
themgmt
06-17-08, 07:38 AM
That was shelling #2. It was my mistake thinking Baltimore could score in Fenway. Maybe next time
Mr. Mxylsplk
06-17-08, 03:03 PM
Well, Wang might have enjoyed the company on the DL, so perhaps we should've signed him after all.
Well, Wang might have enjoyed the company on the DL, so perhaps we should've signed him after all.
Bartolo could have shown him all the best places to eat.
Metroidman
06-17-08, 04:47 PM
Bartolo could have shown him all the best places to eat.
I think Wang knows how to find McDonalds/Burger King/Wendys/Taco Bell/Hardees
Tho I'm not sure if he can eat them all out in a day like Bartolo
I think Wang knows how to find McDonalds/Burger King/Wendys/Taco Bell/Hardees
Tho I'm not sure if he can eat them all out in a day like Bartolo
See? He does need Bartolo's help.
Such is the beauty of SSS... His ERA+ after this last four inning start dropped down to 107. Still not a bad $1.5MM investement, especially if he does the Sox a favor and stays on the DL to avoid the (IMO) inevitable reversion to his form of the past 2 years and/or the on again off again relationship he'll have with the injury bug.
Just to recap... his first start against a good offense equates to the following:
* 4 IP
* 4 ER
* 8 H/BB
* 3 HR
* A trip to the disabled list
Cash, WTF were you thinking?????
Pinstripe Pride23
06-17-08, 07:52 PM
Those hacks at the plate by Colon were classic. Even more comical is the fact that he injured himself flailing away. :D
Those hacks at the plate by Colon were classic. Even more comical is the fact that he injured himself flailing away. :D
If I were Tito, he'd be paying a big fine for that today.
Inexcusable.
Blind squirrel gets a nut? Broken clock right 2x per day?
Ponson goes 2-1 against three good (one great) offense, Colon goes 4-2 against the suckiest offenses in baseball. Theo still a genius to Cash's moron?
Not that I'm real confident either will be a very strong full season contributer, but just thought I'd reignite this debate.
Just cuz I thought this was a classic thread, I thought I'd update...
Colon's line in his last start in AAA against our very own SWB:
Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Colon 0.2 4 3 3 1 1 1 2.45
He followed that up with a 3 inning, 3 hit performance that was solid but short.
Our boy Hawkins since June? Only 21 IP but a 3.50 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. This includes the fact that since going to Houston he has picked up a save, not allowed a run and 8 of his 11 outs have been K's.
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