View Full Version : Mid-Season Top Ten Yankee Minor League Prospects
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 06:17 PM
The following list does not include any of the recent draftees, mostly due to the fact that most of the highest profile draftees have yet to sign. There are sure to be adjustments to the list below by this offseason - some due to promotions to the majors, and some due to performance reasons. At that time, some of the current draftees may find themselves on a post season top ten list.<p>The following is the mid-season ranking of Yankee prospects. This ranking is based on a weighted combination of expected value to the Yankees as measured by absolute ceiling, along with expected return in major league value (i.e., expected CR+ for position players along with defensive ability, and expected DERA for pitchers during the specified time period) to the Yankees over the next year to five year period. Consequently, some players who have very high ceilings (e.g., Pirela) will be listed lower than others with lower ceilings but more ready to play in the majors (e.g., Gardner).
1) <b>Joba Chamberlain</b>, 6-2 225 (RHP) His complete dominance of A+ and AA ball in 2007, indicates that early scouting reports that he would be a front of the rotation starter are probably true. Chamberlain's stuff is absolutely outstanding, with a mid to high nineties heater and a slider that he commands. He compliments those two outstanding pitches with a changeup and a curve that he can throw for strikes, but not necessarily command. Major league comparables are Carlos Zambrano or a right handed CC Sabathia. (ETA 2008)
2) <b>Austin Jackson</b>, 6-1 202 (CF). This is the biggest jump up the Yankee prospects list I've made for this report. At 20 years, Jackson has been making great adjustments at the plate all year, and it is really paying off for him. Over the offseason, Jackson added nearly ten pounds of muscle, with the expectation that it would add strength to hold up during a full year of professional baseball. Because of the adjustments physically and at the plate, Jackson strikes out much less this year than last year, and his all around game is finally catching up with the tremendous potential the Yankees expected to eventually see when they signed him to an 800K bonus in 2005. His recent callup to A+ Tampa has seen him hitting .410/.439/.564 through his first nine games after the promotion. Major league comparable for Austin Jackson is a combination of Torri Hunter in the field and the plate, with Johnny Damon on the bases. (ETA 2009).
3) <b>Jose Tabata</b>, 5-11 205 (RF). Tabata is having a very solid year in A+ Tampa in his 19th calender year. He shows the ability to hit for a high average and is expected to add power to his already strong gap hitting strength. Injuries have held back Tabata a bit for the last year, but it appears that nothing will be able to keep him out of New York's lineup in several years. Major league comparable is a right handed Bobby Abreu. (ETA 2009)
4) <b>Alan Horne</b>, 6-4 195 (RHP). Horne has made adjustments to his game so that now he projects as the front of the rotation starter some thought he would be when he was drafted in the first round as a high school player. Horne's tremendous arm, now harnessed, is inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate. Horne is able to get strikeouts when he needs them. With an MDERA of 140+ all season, it appears that Horne should be in a position to compete for a starting spot in the Yankees rotation within a year. An interesting comparable for Horne is current Orioles starter Jeremy Guthrie. (ETA 2008)
5) <b>Ian Kennedy,</b> 6-0 1/2 180(RHP). Kennedy has dominated at A+ and early on in AA ball this year. He is a very seasoned pitcher who knows how to pitch. The Yankees tweaked his delivery so that he could maintain more consistent velocity and life on his fastball. Although Kennedy doesn't have the stuff of Joba Chamberlain or Alan Horne, he has an outstanding chance to be a very solid major league 3 starter. Major League comparable is Dan Haren. (ETA 2008/09)
6) <b>Dellin Betances</b>, 6-9 235 (RHP). Betances has tremendous talent with the upside to be a dominant ace in major league baseball. However, in the limited exposure that he has in the minors so far, he is far away from fullfilling this tremendous talent. With a mid to high nineties heater and with outstanding secondary stuff, he would rate higher than this if he showed more consistent control. His performance in the GCL last year was somewhat overlooked (7 walks in 23 innings is not great in that league) when reports out of Yankee instructional work indicated that Betances was likely to be able to apply his mechanical lessons quicker than it appears he currently is. Major league comparable for Betances is currently Daniel Cabrera (ETA 2010)
7) <b>Brett Gardner</b>, 5-9 180 (CF). Gardner, like Jackson has worked hard to develop his approach at the plate this year. Since returning from an injury earlier this season, Garnder has been on fire. Expect to see someone take a chance on starting this guy in the major leagues soon. Gardner's tremendous speed and baserunning ability (80 on a 20-80 scouting scale) are his calling card. If what we are seeing this year is any indication from Gardner he ought to be a .280/.380/.420 kind of guy in the majors, yet, with that speed and baserunning ability he will be very valuable to a major league lineup. A major league comparable for Gardner is Scott Podsednik. (ETA 2008)
8) <b>Jose Pirela</b>, 5-10 189 (CF/SS) The right handed hitting Pirela is an incredibly talented offensive player currently in the DSL. The Yankees were very cautious with the youngster (17) by assigning him to the DSL, knowing that the long season in the United States can wear down the younger players. Yet, Pirela has been with the Yankees for a year and is generally considered to be the best 'catch' for value among the 2006 Yankee signees. Pirela has great baserunning ability, in large part due to his strong athleticism and great instincts for the game. Still it is his all around game that has the Yankees most excited. Major league comparable - Alphonso Soriano. (ETA 2011)
9) <b>Zoilo Almonte</b>, 6-0 180 (LF) The right handed throwing, switch-hitting Almonte is an impressive hitter right now. The Yankees have started the 18 year old Almonte in the Gulf Coast League this year. Over his first ten games stateside, Almonte is showing the offensive tools expected of him .333/.385/528. Almonte is a very polished hitter, mature beyond his years. He has already drawn raves from Yankee organizational personnel who believe he will challenge for batting titles in the major leagues. Some compare him to Melky Cabrera, yet Almonte's hitting ability at his age is more reminscent of Miguel Cabrera not Melky Cabrera. (ETA 2010)
10) <b>Jairo Heredia</b>, 6-1 170 (RHP). The 17 yr old Heredia is considered to be a front of the rotation talent by the Yankees. He has already demonstrated that he can throw his fastball consistently between 91-94 mph, along with a curve and a changeup already considered to be plus pitches. Heredia has started stateside with the GCL Yankees and although he hasn't yet blown away the league (that still may happen) in the early going, he is doing very well with a league unadjusted defense independent ERA of 2.91 (regular ERA of 3.09). He has shown remarkable control with only 2 walks in 11.66 innings, one homerun allowed, and 10 stikeouts. Major league comparable is a right handed Dontrelle Willis (i.e., similar delievery and stuff) ETA 2011.<p>Edit: I'd like to limit the discussion to those Yankee prospects whose arbitration clock has not yet started. That rules out the likes of Hughes, Clippard, etc.
Snatch Catch
07-01-07, 06:21 PM
I think you put a little bit too much weight in performance over the last couple of weeks. At this point, Cervelli should be in this list unquestionably in my view.
I think it's difficult to rank in the GCL guys, though they have a ton of potential. Instead of the last 3, I'd go with Cervelli (probably before Gardner as he was injured for a while), Miranda and Curtis in that order. I don't know that I'd include Betances either as he's only had a couple of starts.
bmxstreetrider86
07-01-07, 06:25 PM
hughes is still elidgible btw
budstinks
07-01-07, 06:27 PM
Austin Jackson way too high for a couple of hot weeks.
Nobody should be ranked until they've done something in the states.
Even the short-season kids should be gauged with a very heavy standard. And I love DB and would have him high as well.
JeffWeaverFan
07-01-07, 06:28 PM
Austin Jackson was also hitting .260/.336/.374 in 60 games in A ball this year, with 59 K's. Yes, he's done great in 9 games of A+ ball, but I think it's crazy to put him that high, and above Tabata.
bmxstreetrider86
07-01-07, 06:28 PM
hughes
tabata
chamberlain
betances
kennedy
cervelli
horne
gardner
jackson
mcallister
Philip Hughes Fan
07-01-07, 06:35 PM
Austin Jackson was also hitting .260/.336/.374 in 60 games in A ball this year, with 59 K's. Yes, he's done great in 9 games of A+ ball, but I think it's crazy to put him that high, and above Tabata.
All while repeating the level. Hilarious.
rca1230
07-01-07, 06:42 PM
You just can't put AJ over Tabata. just can't. Tabata is the superior prospect.. AJ is doing well and I really hope the best for him but it's only 9 games
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 06:43 PM
For anyone who has followed minor league ball a long time, it is apparent that players sometimes have the 'light' go on all of a sudden. And when it does it is clear sailing from there on out. This year Alan Horne had the light go on, actually it went on at the very end of last year, and we see how that is going as he is beginning to fullfillling his tremendous potential with tremendous MDERA numbers.<p>More recently Austin Jackson has had the 'light' go on for him, and, like Horne, and many before him the sailing from here on out will be much smoother through the minors than it has been so far. Of course the same 'light' going on, can't be said for some posters who couldn't spot a legitmate turnaround if it bit them in the butt.;)
rca1230
07-01-07, 06:45 PM
AJ may have had the "light go on".. but lets make that judgement after 30 games or so.. not 9.
bmxstreetrider86
07-01-07, 06:47 PM
or they might be skeptical that 10 games is too small of a sample size to judge anyone on yet.
the tools are there, but lets see how he progresses once the league has had a look at him
Philip Hughes Fan
07-01-07, 06:48 PM
For anyone who has followed minor league ball a long tiime, it is apparent that players sometimes have the 'light' go on all of a sudden. And when it does it is clear sailing from there on out. This year Alan Horne had the light go on, actually it went on at the very end of last year, and we see how that is going as he is beginning to fullfillling his tremendous potential with tremendous MDERA numbers.<p>More recently Austin Jackson has had the 'light' go on for him, and, like Horne, and many before him the sailing from here on out will be much smoother through the minors than it has been so far. Of course the same 'light' going on, can't be said for some posters who couldn't spot a legitmate turnaround if it bit them in the butt.;)
I eagerly await for the post proclaiming Jackson now projects to one of the best OPS+ of all time.
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 06:49 PM
AJ may have had the "light go on".. but lets make that judgement after 30 games or so.. not 9.Why only wait another 21 games? I think it would suit you and some other posters better if you waited until Baseball America comes out with their list next off season.<p>In the meantime, while you wait, this list is out.
MaineSoxFan
07-01-07, 06:50 PM
Notwithstanding Jackson's hot play, I would move Tabata ahead of him in that list.
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 06:55 PM
Of course 10 games is a small sample size. What's new in that observation? What's important is identifying when a player is living up to their talents. The Yankees might have had an inkling of that when they promoted Jackson? No?
bmxstreetrider86
07-01-07, 07:00 PM
or they needed to promote him and see if that lit a fire under him, considering he pretty much stagnated in low a
Aviezer
07-01-07, 07:01 PM
Of course 10 games is a small sample size. What's new in that observation? What's important is identifying when a player is living up to their talents. The Yankees might have had an inkling of that when they promoted Jackson? No?
For the record I think 10 games is too soon but what mystifies me is that even if the light really is on Tabata should still rank higher b/c of upside.
NY_GOLDENARMS
07-01-07, 07:03 PM
My mid-season Top 10
Hughes
Chamberlin
Tabata
Betances
Kennedy
Horne
Cervelli
Jackson
Gardner
Hilligos
Snatch Catch
07-01-07, 07:08 PM
My mid-season Top 10
Hughes
Chamberlin
Tabata
Betances
Kennedy
Horne
Cervelli
Jackson
Gardner
Hilligos
That's probably similar to how I would have it. I think by the end of the year some of the GCL/DSL/SI guys could be on it, but right now that looks good.
I would actually mover both Horne and Kennedy above Betances at this point just because they've both pitched SO well thus far. I'd also replace Hilligos on the list with someone like Curtis.
To be honest, I'm not sure Jackson cracks my top 10. I think I'd reward David Robertson in his stead.
Aviezer
07-01-07, 07:15 PM
That's probably similar to how I would have it. I think by the end of the year some of the GCL/DSL/SI guys could be on it, but right now that looks good.
I would actually mover both Horne and Kennedy above Betances at this point just because they've both pitched SO well thus far. I'd also replace Hilligos on the list with someone like Curtis.
To be honest, I'm not sure Jackson cracks my top 10. I think I'd reward David Robertson in his stead.
Mine would go
Hughes
Chamberlain
Tabata
Horne
Kennedy
Betances
(Sanchez)
Jackson
( Melancon)
( Cox)
Cervelli
Gardner
( Montero)
Robertson
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 07:17 PM
For the record I think 10 games is too soon but what mystifies me is that even if the light really is on Tabata should still rank higher b/c of upside.I think after last year many people would have automatically assumed that to be true. Yet, in July 2005 when the Yankees signed Austin Jackson and brought Tabata over to play in the GCL the view among the Yankees was that both had very high ceilings. That it would be difficult to separate the two based on ceiling. With Jackson having a bit more raw speed, and athleticism, while Tabata appeared to be more advanced as a hitter. <p>After last year it looked like Tabata's potential was more likely to be fullfilled than Jackson's based strictly on what transpired during the season. Now, after both have been with the Yankees for two full seasons, the Yankees have every reason to believe that both have a good chance to reach their ceilings and that both have very high ceilings indeed.<p>Quite frankly I have Jackson slightly higher than Tabata because as a centerfielder Jackson doesn't need for his power to develop quite as much as does Tabata a corner outfielder.<p>In addition, I think that Jackson will now move through the Yankees system at a pace equal to or greater than the pace that Tabata will. <p>Remember that as young as Tabata is, Jackson is only a year and a half older.
Aviezer
07-01-07, 07:19 PM
I think after last year many people would have automatically assumed that to be true. Yet, in July 2005 when the Yankees signed Austin Jackson and brought Tabata over to play in the GCL the view among the Yankees was that both had very high ceilings. That it would be difficult to separate the two based on ceiling. With Jackson having a bit more raw speed, and athleticism, while Tabata appeared to be more advanced as a hitter.
After last year it looked like Tabata's potential was more likely to be fullfilled than Jackson's based strictly on what transpired during the season. Now, after both have been with the Yankees for two full seasons, the Yankees have every reason to believe that both have a good chance to reach their ceilings and that both have very high ceilings indeed.
Quite frankly I have Jackson slightly higher than Tabata because as a centerfielder Jackson doesn't need for his power to develop quite as much as does Tabata a corner outfielder.
In addition, I think that Jackson will now move through the Yankees system at a pace equal to or greater than the pace that Tabata will. Remember that as young as Tabata is, Jackson is only a year and a half older.
Still Mike Cameron vs Bobby Abreu, who do you wan't?
And thats assuming that AJ can play D like that
Big Game Andy
07-01-07, 07:22 PM
I eagerly await for the post proclaiming Jackson now projects to one of the best OPS+ of all time.
:roflmao: :roflmao: So true. His MDOPS+ is currently 200.
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 07:29 PM
Still Mike Cameron vs Bobby Abreu, who do you wan't?
And thats assuming that AJ can play D like thatYou might think that is a good comparable for Jackson but it isn't. The comparable I used a combination of Torri Hunter in the field and at the plate, along with Damon on the basepaths is the best comparable for Jackson now.<p>You will argue undoubtedly, that Cameron is a good comparable because of his strong athleticism and the strikeouts. However, the strikeouts have been affected dramatically by all of Jackson's continued hard work. That is why, even over the last stretch once he got promoted, Jackson is striking out at such a lower rate (12%) instead of the plus 20% for the bulk of the Riverdogs season. Jackson not striking out at those rates is a much better hitter than believed by those who have seen him up till recently. That is what I meant by the light going on for him, that is the biggest functional change in Austin Jackson, he has cut down on his strikeout rates.<p>Consequently, Cameron is a bad comparable, and I'd rather have a talent combining Torri Hunter's fielding and plate ability along with Damon's ability on the basepaths than I would Bobby Abreu - especially if I weren't sure that Abreu would be able to hit at least 20 dingers for me every year.
BomberBrian
07-01-07, 07:30 PM
If we used 9 game stretches to evaluate a prospect Eric Duncan could still be in the top 10.
Think about how stupid that sounds.
Aviezer
07-01-07, 07:33 PM
You might think that is a good comparable for Jackson but it isn't. The comparable I used a combination of Torri Hunter in the field and at the plate, along with Damon on the basepaths is the best comparable for Jackson now.
You will argue undoubtedly, that Cameron is a good comparable because of his strong athleticism and the strikeouts. However, the strikeouts have been affected dramatically by all of Jackson's continued hard work. That is why, even over the last stretch once he got promoted, Jackson is striking out at such a lower rate (12%) instead of the plus 20% for the bulk of the Riverdogs season. Jackson not striking out at those rates is a much better hitter than believed by those who have seen him up till recently. That is what I meant by the light going on for him, that is the biggest functional change in Austin Jackson, he has cut down on his strikeout rates.Consequently, Cameron is a bad comparable, and I'd rather have a talent combining Torri Hunter's fielding and plate ability along with Damon's ability on the basepaths than I would Bobby Abreu - especially if I weren't sure that Abreu would be able to hit at least 20 dingers for me every year.
From the games I have listened too I am not convinced that AJ has Cameron's D much less Hunter's.
SSS still applies with the K's as well.
If he is hitting then he K's less. It follows
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 07:34 PM
BomberBrian, it is a misreprentation to say that anyone is basing the list on that. As I've explained in more detail about Jackson just now, these rankings are based on much more than recent results. Recent results can either contradict scouting reports or tend to confirm them. In Jackson's case, the Yankees had reports on Jackson that allowed them to feel comfortable promoting him when they did.
Aviezer
07-01-07, 07:36 PM
But it is a misreprentation to say that anyone is basing the list on that. As I've explained in more detail about Jackson just now, these rankings are based on much more than recent results. Recent results can either contradict scouting reports or tend to confirm them. In Jackson's case, the Yankees had reports on Jackson that allowed them to feel comfortable promoting him when they did.
So where is Cervelli, he began to fulfill what pecota predicted
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 07:38 PM
From the games I have listened too I am not convinced that AJ has Cameron's D much less Hunter's.
SSS still applies with the K's as well.
If he is hitting then he K's less. It followsRemember we are still talking about prospects here. Jackson projects to be a Torri Hunter type defender, he isn't there yet.
Big Game Andy
07-01-07, 07:43 PM
Here's mine
1) Philip Hughes - power stuff, plus command, what's not to like?
2) Jose Tabata - The kid is hitting .306 as an 18 year old in A+ with an unhealthy wrist, think about that for a second. That's incredible. I think he'll hit for a high average in the majors if he stays healthy and I think his power will develop in time.
3) Joba Chamberlain - very good power stuff, including a devestating fastball and slider. I really like his arsenal, but he needs a consistent third pitch and his command needs to get better.
4) Alan Horne - I like his plus fastball and curve combo, and he's got two other decent pitches in his slider and his changeup that he can go to. His groundball tendencies are tremendous and I think he'll be a real innings eater in MLB
5) Ian Kennedy - ecstatic that his fastball is back from his sophomore USC days, his performance in the FSL and EL have been very exciting. Has evoked comparisions of a Moose lite, hopefully he can be half as good as Moose was in his prime.
6) Dellin Betances - His stuff is top notch but is he going to be able to repeat his delivery on a consistent basis? He's up here because of his ceiling, although his performance in Staten Island has been good.
7) Brett Gardner - gotta love his world class speed and his ability to work the counts. He doesn't have much power, but I think the porch in RF will help him out. He has very nice range and I think he'll post a high OBP in the majors.
8) Francisco Cervelli - has slowed down after a torrid start in Tampa, but he's still our best catching prospect. This is his first full year, he's obviously wearing down. Nobody knows much about his power projection, but if he can hit for decent power and average he is Jorge's successor. He's still far away, though.
9) Action Jackson - He's off to a torrid pace after his promotion to Tampa, but it's still to early to ticket AJ to the big leagues. It looks like over the last month or so in both Charleston and Tampa that he has cut down his strikeouts and he's hitting some extra base hits lately (although it's in a small sample size). He's got a very good ceiling, certainly if he fulfills it he could be the starting CF for the Yankees, but he's still far away.
10) Jeff Marquez - the lack of strikeouts are concerned, but his stuff and command could slot him at the middle of the rotation. He's still a work in progress, but I envision him as a swingman on this team ala Ramiro Mendoza and that has some value.
Aviezer
07-01-07, 07:43 PM
Remember we are still talking about prospects here. Jackson projects to be a Torri Hunter type defender, he isn't there yet.
Speed alone does not a defender make
has he shown the gifts that make hunter a supreme OF?
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 07:47 PM
Please don't put anymore lists out there that have players already on the arb clock (Hughes, Clippard, etc.) Thank you.
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 07:49 PM
Speed alone does not a defender makeAre you contributing something with that?
has he shown the gifts that make hunter a supreme OF?Of course he has. It is a matter of consistency and putting it all together - The kid is twenty for jimminy crickets.
bmxstreetrider86
07-01-07, 07:49 PM
why? they are still technically prospects
bmxstreetrider86
07-01-07, 07:50 PM
yea that 20 year olds defense was brutal last year, from both a statistical standpoint and a scouting standpoint
BomberBrian
07-01-07, 07:50 PM
Please don't put anymore lists out there that have players already on the arb clock (Hughes, Clippard, etc.) Thank you.
if they are still going to qualify for rookie eligibility next season why should they not be included?
Big Game Andy
07-01-07, 07:53 PM
Are you contributing something with that?
Yes, he's contributing his opinion. You don't need to undermine it.
Oh wait, I forgot, he has to project Action Jackson to be the next Joe Dimaggio before you take him seriously.
Not everybody projects our prospects to be future Hall of Famers.
Snatch Catch
07-01-07, 07:54 PM
Please don't put anymore lists out there that have players already on the arb clock (Hughes, Clippard, etc.) Thank you.
Arb clock? Clippard's clock isn't running. You're thinking about option years, which he has started.
As far as arbitration goes, if Clippard stays in the minors for the rest of the season, he will be on the same schedule as if he had never been called up. His inclusion on this list is every bit valid as the inclusion of Betances from an arbitration standpoint.
I think Hughes' clock may not be running at this juncture either, but I'm not sure about that.
Philip Hughes Fan
07-01-07, 07:56 PM
Yes, he's contributing his opinion. You don't need to undermine it.
Oh wait, I forgot, he has to project Action Jackson to be the next Joe Dimaggio before you take him seriously.
Not everybody projects our prospects to be future Hall of Famers.
C'mon, he's only projected like 6 of them to be HOFers.
Fabien Brandy
07-01-07, 07:56 PM
Is this list akin to the Baseball America 'hotsheet' or is it an actual valuation of the order you would take them if available in a dispersal draft or something similar?
It just seems like either Tabata has dropped out of the league-wide top 100 or AJ has made a huge leap.
yank4life2005
07-01-07, 08:02 PM
Who has the better arm?
Gardner or A-Jack?
SportzStooge007
07-01-07, 08:08 PM
The following list does not include any of the recent draftees, mostly due to the fact that most of the highest profile draftees have yet to sign. There are sure to be adjustments to the list below by this offseason - some due to promotions to the majors, and some due to performance reasons. At that time, some of the current draftees may find themselves on a post season top ten list.The following is the mid-season ranking of Yankee prospects. This ranking is based on a weighted combination of expected value to the Yankees as measured by absolute ceiling, along with expected return in major league value (i.e., expected CR+ for position players along with defensive ability, and expected DERA for pitchers during the specified time period) to the Yankees over the next year to five year period. Consequently, some players who have very high ceilings (e.g., Pirela) will be listed lower than others with lower ceilings but more ready to play in the majors (e.g., Gardner).
1) Joba Chamberlain, 6-2 225 (RHP) His complete dominance of A+ and AA ball in 2007, indicates that early scouting reports that he would be a front of the rotation starter are probably true. Chamberlain's stuff is absolutely outstanding, with a mid to high nineties heater and a slider that he commands. He compliments those two outstanding pitches with a changeup and a curve that he can throw for strikes, but not necessarily command. Major league comparables are Carlos Zambrano or a right handed CC Sabathia. (ETA 2008)
2) Austin Jackson, 6-1 202 (CF). This is the biggest jump up the Yankee prospects list I've made for this report. At 20 years, Jackson has been making great adjustments at the plate all year, and it is really paying off for him. Over the offseason, Jackson added nearly ten pounds of muscle, with the expectation that it would add strength to hold up during a full year of professional baseball. Because of the adjustments physically and at the plate, Jackson strikes out much less this year than last year, and his all around game is finally catching up with the tremendous potential the Yankees expected to eventually see when they signed him to an 800K bonus in 2005. His recent callup to A+ Tampa has seen him hitting .410/.439/.564 through his first nine games after the promotion. Major league comparable for Austin Jackson is a combination of Torri Hunter in the field and the plate, with Johnny Damon on the bases. (ETA 2009).
3) Jose Tabata, 5-11 205 (RF). Tabata is having a very solid year in A+ Tampa in his 19th calender year. He shows the ability to hit for a high average and is expected to add power to his already strong gap hitting strength. Injuries have held back Tabata a bit for the last year, but it appears that nothing will be able to keep him out of New York's lineup in several years. Major league comparable is a right handed Bobby Abreu. (ETA 2009)
4) Alan Horne, 6-4 195 (RHP). Horne has made adjustments to his game so that now he projects as the front of the rotation starter some thought he would be when he was drafted in the first round as a high school player. Horne's tremendous arm, now harnessed, is inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate. Horne is able to get strikeouts when he needs them. With an MDERA of 140+ all season, it appears that Horne should be in a position to compete for a starting spot in the Yankees rotation within a year. An interesting comparable for Horne is current Orioles starter Jeremy Guthrie. (ETA 2008)
5) Ian Kennedy, 6-0 1/2 180(RHP). Kennedy has dominated at A+ and early on in AA ball this year. He is a very seasoned pitcher who knows how to pitch. The Yankees tweaked his delivery so that he could maintain more consistent velocity and life on his fastball. Although Kennedy doesn't have the stuff of Joba Chamberlain or Alan Horne, he has an outstanding chance to be a very solid major league 3 starter. Major League comparable is Dan Haren. (ETA 2008/09)
6) Dellin Betances, 6-9 235 (RHP). Betances has tremendous talent with the upside to be a dominant ace in major league baseball. However, in the limited exposure that he has in the minors so far, he is far away from fullfilling this tremendous talent. With a mid to high nineties heater and with outstanding secondary stuff, he would rate higher than this if he showed more consistent control. His performance in the GCL last year was somewhat overlooked (7 walks in 23 innings is not great in that league) when reports out of Yankee instructional work indicated that Betances was likely to be able to apply his mechanical lessons quicker than it appears he currently is. Major league comparable for Betances is currently Daniel Cabrera (ETA 2010)
7) Brett Gardner, 5-9 180 (CF). Gardner, like Jackson has worked hard to develop his approach at the plate this year. Since returning from an injury earlier this season, Garnder has been on fire. Expect to see someone take a chance on starting this guy in the major leagues soon. Gardner's tremendous speed and baserunning ability (80 on a 20-80 scouting scale) are his calling card. If what we are seeing this year is any indication from Gardner he ought to be a .280/.380/.420 kind of guy in the majors, yet, with that speed and baserunning ability he will be very valuable to a major league lineup. A major league comparable for Gardner is Scott Podsednik. (ETA 2008)
8) Jose Pirela, 6-1 180 (CF/SS) The right handed hitting Pirela is an incredibly talented offensive player currently in the DSL. The Yankees were very cautious with the youngster (17) by assigning him to the DSL, knowing that the long season in the United States can wear down the younger players. Yet, Pirela has been with the Yankees for a year and is generally considered to be the best 'catch' for value among the 2006 Yankee signees. Pirela has great baserunning ability, in large part due to his strong athleticism and great instincts for the game. Still it is his all around game that has the Yankees most excited. Major league comparable - Alphonso Soriano. (ETA 2011)
9) Zoilo Almonte, 6-0 180 (LF) The right handed throwing, switch-hitting Almonte is an impressive hitter right now. The Yankees have started the 18 year old Almonte in the Gulf Coast League this year. Over his first ten games stateside, Almonte is showing the offensive tools expected of him .333/.385/528. Almonte is a very polished hitter, mature beyond his years. He has already drawn raves from Yankee organizational personnel who believe he will challenge for batting titles in the major leagues. Some compare him to Melky Cabrera, yet Almonte's hitting ability at his age is more reminscent of Miguel Cabrera not Melky Cabrera. (ETA 2010)
10) Jairo Heredia, 6-1 170 (RHP). The 17 yr old Heredia is considered to be a front of the rotation talent by the Yankees. He has already demonstrated that he can throw his fastball consistently between 91-94 mph, along with a curve and a changeup already considered to be plus pitches. Heredia has started stateside with the GCL Yankees and although he hasn't yet blown away the league (that still may happen) in the early going, he is doing very well with a league unadjusted defense independent ERA of 2.91 (regular ERA of 3.09). He has shown remarkable control with only 2 walks in 11.66 innings, one homerun allowed, and 10 stikeouts. Major league comparable is a tight handed Dontrelle Willis (i.e., similar delievery and stuff) ETA 2011.
Edit: I'd like to limit the discussion to those Yankee prospects whose arbitration clock has not yet started. That rules out the likes of Hughes, Clippard, etc.
Based on this alone, by 2010, we should have a hell of a team.
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 08:10 PM
Arb clock? Clippard's clock isn't running. You're thinking about option years, which he has started.
As far as arbitration goes, if Clippard stays in the minors for the rest of the season, he will be on the same schedule as if he had never been called up. His inclusion on this list is every bit valid as the inclusion of Betances from an arbitration standpoint.
I think Hughes' clock may not be running at this juncture either, but I'm not sure about that.Ah yes, option years is what I meant. Thanks for the correction.<p>I'm hoping to keep this discussion down to players who haven't played in the major leagues outside of September. Mostly because most everyone knows about those players, my suggestion limits the discussion to those players not already in the majors and broadens the discussion beyond the most obvious prospects anyone reading SI knows about.
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 08:15 PM
Who has the better arm?
Gardner or A-Jack?Jackson. When he was tested before being drafted he could throw the ball 90 mph from the outfield. He has a plus arm for a centerfielder. <p>Gardner's arm is slightly below major league average for a centerfielder.
bobbymagee
07-01-07, 08:16 PM
The analysis is very good. Where did you get the data?
Hughes2.50, I love the little scouting reports you did on Pirela, Almonte and Heredia, but Jackson is way to high.
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 08:21 PM
Is this list akin to the Baseball America 'hotsheet' or is it an actual valuation of the order you would take them if available in a dispersal draft or something similar?
It just seems like either Tabata has dropped out of the league-wide top 100 or AJ has made a huge leap.If I had to guess, Tabata would rank about 35-45 on a new list by BA if they were to do one now. I expect that when the new one does come out next offseason, Jackson will be ranked at about or slightly ahead of Tabata on BA's list.
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 08:25 PM
The analysis is very good. Where did you get the data?What data are you referring to?
BomberBrian
07-01-07, 08:26 PM
if i had to guess jackson won't even sniff the top 100.
or the top 150.
maybe not even the top 200.
yank4life2005
07-01-07, 08:26 PM
Jackson. When he was tested before being drafted he could throw the ball 90 mph from the outfield. He has a plus arm for a centerfielder. Gardner's arm is slightly below major league average for a centerfielder.
Yikes...
Another Damon arm..
Go A-Jack!
NelsonMuntz
07-01-07, 08:29 PM
Seems like the Carlos Urena hype has died down a bit. FWIW, I'm buying the AJ hype. I think he is going to be something special, although I don't think I would rate him higher than Tabata right now.
MaineSoxFan
07-01-07, 08:31 PM
If I had to guess, Tabata would rank about 35-45 on a new list by BA if they were to do one now. I expect that when the new one does come out next offseason, Jackson will be ranked at about or slightly ahead of Tabata on BA's list.
In the next couple of weeks BA.com will be taking another look at their top 100 - I assume the players they named and how they have progressed or not - and a revised top 25.
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 08:44 PM
In the next couple of weeks BA.com will be taking another look at their top 100 - I assume the players they named and how they have progressed or not - and a revised top 25.For what its worth, BA knows all about how Jackson is doing through their contacts. If I had to guess, BA will wait to rank Jackson as high as he deserves until the offseason rankings come out. BA is after all a paid service, and everyone can see the reaction on a Yankee web site to reading that Jackson may have leap-frogged over Tabata. I suspect BA will wait a bit longer before suggesting the same thing.
BomberBrian
07-01-07, 08:44 PM
like wait until it is actually true?
b_joseph
07-01-07, 08:46 PM
Jackson over Tabata seems to be slightly disrespectful.
The past few weeks have been exciting, sure. But this is baseball and a slump is just around the corner. Lets see how Jackson does after his slump before we start annointing him to next big thing!
My 10 excluding Hughes, long-term injured and rookie/SS-A ball players would be
Joba
Tabata
Horne
Kennedy
Clippard
Jackson
Marquez
Gardner
Kontos
Nacci
Almost everyone who has been following AJ since he was drafted has been waiting for him to realize his potential, yet I, too, would wait a bit longer before proclaiming that the light has turned on. Don't want to get the hopes too high, especially prematurely.
Big Game Andy
07-01-07, 08:52 PM
It's absolutely insane to suggest that Jackson has leapfrogged over Tabata in any ranking. He's had a grand total of 40-atbats in Tampa. Yes, he's been hot, but let's wait until he experiences his first extended slump before we say he is better than Tabata, who has been consistently good at every stop during his entire career despite being 2-3 years old than most competition he faces.
We are talking about the same guy who struck out every 3 at-bats in Charleston in April for 65 at-bats and had a .580 OPS. In June, he struck out every 6 at-bats and had a .636 OPS in 58 at-bats.
bmxstreetrider86
07-01-07, 08:54 PM
you got that backwards big game
Big Game Andy
07-01-07, 08:55 PM
Yeah, I fixed it. You got my point though. Jackson didn't even come close to mastering the Sally League, so color me skeptical about AJ actually turning the corner. This just seems like a hot streak to me.
Yeah, I fixed it. You got my point though. Jackson didn't even come close to mastering the Sally League, so color me skeptical about AJ actually turning the corner. This just seems like a hot streak to me.I think the point is that we can't be sure just yet. I have no doubt that he'll get there; whether he has gotten there now remains to be seen.
I would have Tabata no lower than 2, and would count Phil Hughes as the big leaguer I last saw no-hitting the Rangers. And not the Rangers who just landed Gomez and Drury!
Philip Hughes Fan
07-01-07, 09:57 PM
And not the Rangers who just landed Gomez and Drury!
Who'd they get?
EDIT: Nevermind, you mean the NY Rangers, right?
I think I was confused by the thread. I thought it was prospects having top seasons in 2007, not top prospects list overall. Which is why I would have left off the Short Season players.
Obviously a "top prospect" overall list would look very different.
Hughes2.50
07-01-07, 10:51 PM
I think I was confused by the thread. I thought it was prospects having top seasons in 2007, not top prospects list overall. Which is why I would have left off the Short Season players.
Obviously a "top prospect" overall list would look very different.The thread is straightforward, even if there isn't consensus among nyyfans. The thread is about where NY Yankee prospects are valued based on where they stand right now. Just as if Baseball America were to list their top ten list of Yankee prospects right now (while accomadating (sp) the constraints I listed in the first post regarding excluding from consideration those with major league service).
haha wow cant believe i missed this. i went on vacation for a week, and before i left jackson was barely a top 10 prospect, now he's our 2nd best prospect.
pretty sweet!
Hughes2.50
07-02-07, 06:45 AM
haha wow cant believe i missed this. i went on vacation for a week, and before i left jackson was barely a top 10 prospect, now he's our 2nd best prospect.
pretty sweet!I think you might want to be more self-reflective and a little less quick to derisively criticize what others post. It seems like you have a lot of hard thinking still to do about how you rate <a href="http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php?t=101212">Yankee prospects</a>.
Jackson. When he was tested before being drafted he could throw the ball 90 mph from the outfield. He has a plus arm for a centerfielder. Gardner's arm is slightly below major league average for a centerfielder.
Have you ever seen Gardner in person, playing the field?
His arm may not be like Jackson's, but to say that it is below average for a CF is ludicrous.
If we used 9 game stretches to evaluate a prospect Eric Duncan could still be in the top 10.
Think about how stupid that sounds.
Most sensible post on this thread. If the opening post is listing the current "fast risers" then maybe we have something here. Bu to call these guys the Top Ten, that is a stretch, at least with some of them.
Hughes2.50
07-02-07, 07:34 AM
Have you ever seen Gardner in person, playing the field?
His arm may not be like Jackson's, but to say that it is below average for a CF is ludicrous.I didn't say bad arm, weak arm, or terrible arm - I said '<b>slightly below major league average</b> for a centerfielder.' That would mean he has a pretty good arm. I never said that Gardner had a weak arm like Damon.<p>
Most sensible post on this thread. If the opening post is listing the current "fast risers" then maybe we have something here. Bu to call these guys the Top Ten, that is a stretch, at least with some of them.By your standard then, I'd assume you suggest to Baseball America that when they do their offseason lists they should only look at the 'fast risers.' Is that how they put Betances on their list of the top 100 prospects in all of baseball and in the top three or four of all Yankee prospects? Was it those last 23 innings in the rookie league?<p>This thread is not different than those efforts by Baseball America and is not driven, or dependent upon who is hot - even though I did provide most current performance information on some of the players (where those players recent performances match scouting expectations and where there had been little information confirming scouting reports earlier). <p>I think it will be useful to revisit all of the comments on this thread, when the season ends. And at that time look to see what the commercial talent evaluators like BA actually have for their top ten Yankee prospect lists. After all it isn't like we won't get more information on some of these ratings over the intervening months of baseball that will be played.
Aviezer
07-02-07, 09:07 AM
[quote=Hughes2.50]Are you contributing something with that?
I am just pointing out that people mistake raw speed (Jaun Pierre) with defensive brilliance(Hunter).
Just b/c AJ is fast doesn't make him Hunter
Aviezer
07-02-07, 09:07 AM
[quote=Hughes2.50]Are you contributing something with that?
I am just pointing out that people mistake raw speed (Jaun Pierre) with defensive brilliance(Hunter).
Just b/c AJ is fast doesn't make him Hunter
Edit: Weird double post sorry
Snatch Catch
07-02-07, 09:09 AM
By most defensive metrics, Hunter isn't "brilliant" defensively. He makes highlight catches, but there have been a bunch of CFers who have been better than him during his prime years.
Aviezer
07-02-07, 09:15 AM
By most defensive metrics, Hunter isn't "brilliant" defensively. He makes highlight catches, but there have been a bunch of CFers who have been better than him during his prime years.
I was using Hunter as an example w/o loking at the numbers.
Give me Andruw or Beltran over Hunter
Hughes 2.50 are you taking Hunters current numbers as a upside for AJ or the perception of his D.
I know it's straightforward now, but for some reason I got confused. I still wouldn't put any of the GCL guys on the list because it's too small sample size at this time. I'm also going to leave Phil Hughes out because he's apparently going straight back to the majors after his rehab starts and will no longer be a prospect soon.
My Top Ten:
1. Joba Chamberlain- #1/#2 potential. Needs to work on the walks.
2. Jose Tabata- All Star calibur OF potential. Strong stats all around for a player very young for the FSL.
3. Alan Horne- Showing front of the rotation potential. "Breakout" year.
4. Ian Kennedy- Can't deny his performance in AA, though he doesn't seem to have the "stuff".
5. Dellin Betances- Extremely raw, but a lot of potential and probably the highest ceiling of all of the pitching prospects.
6. Francisco Cervelli- Legitimate catching prospect that can actually hit. Needs to adjust to playing a full season.
7. Brett Gardner- Superb on base skills and speed. The most ML ready of all of the hitting prospects. Could be a fantastic leadoff hitter as he walks a lot more than most "speed" guys (Podsednik and Pierre are fast with no power, but neither walk). Not a high ceiling, but can be at least an effective 4th OF'er.
8. Austin Jackson- From nowhere back to being legit; seems to have put it together despite a small sample size. Has the highest ceiling of hitting prospects after Tabata.
9. David Robertson- Dominated, though on a level too low for him. If he regains his full velocity, he could be dominant set-up man if not a closer.
10. Colin Curtis. Also dominated a level too low for him and needs to adjust to AA. Probably no "all star" potential, but potential to be a decent ML OF'er as he has decent power.
Honorable Mentions:
Juan Miranda
Tyler Clippard
George Kontos
Mitch Hilligoss
Daniel McCutchen
Seth Fortenberry
Reegie Corona
Underachievers:
Eric Duncan
Angel Reyes
Ivan Nova
Eduardo Nunez
Kevin Whelan
DL:
Ross Ohlendorf
Christian Garcia
JB Cox
Mark Melancon
Tim Norton
Aviezer
07-02-07, 09:37 AM
I don't see how Knotos doesn't rank above curtis :dunno:
I don't see how Knotos doesn't rank above curtis :dunno:
Kontos is pitching at a low level for his age. He also missed some time this year with injury and "attitude" issues.
Kontos is pitching at a low level for his age. He also missed some time this year with injury and "attitude" issues.Kontos is 21.
Yankees1962
07-02-07, 09:50 AM
Kontos is 21.
Yep, he's not as polished as Kennedy nor has the power of Chamberlain, but he's pitching very well at a level just right for a 21 year old pitcher. Perhaps, he moves up to Trenton after the July trade deadling.
MTYankee23
07-02-07, 09:57 AM
I know I've written this before, but I can't see Gardner being a leadoff hitter for an AL team. I think you'd want more total production out of the player getting the most ABs. Ideally you'd have a player with similar Onbase and speed ability with more pop hitting 1st and could slot Garnder in as your 9th hitter/4th OF. Feeling that way I wouldn't rank him over Kontos or Jackson. Not to mention that he's 6 months OLDER than Melky Cabrera.
Yankees1962
07-02-07, 10:02 AM
Kontos is gooood.
He's impressed me, especially considering how messed up he appeared as a college pitcher with loads of ability, but very little good results to show for that ability.
I know I've written this before, but I can't see Gardner being a leadoff hitter for an AL team. I think you'd want more total production out of the player getting the most ABs. Ideally you'd have a player with similar Onbase and speed ability with more pop hitting 1st and could slot Garnder in as your 9th hitter/4th OF. Feeling that way I wouldn't rank him over Kontos or Jackson. Not to mention that he's 6 months OLDER than Melky Cabrera.
Gardner is a College boy, so in spite of the fact that he is older than Melky, he still does rank as a prospect, and his age should not be held against him, as he is moving up the system at a nice pace.
I see your point about Brett as a #9 hitter vs. a leadoff guy. But is on-base abilities may over-ride his limited (to be charitable) ability to hit for power. With his speed, and his ability to draw walks, he is a prototype leadoff hitter, who will have the job of getting on base and setting things up for the sluggers behind him.
Although looking at the 2007 version of the NY Yankees, one wonders a bit about the use of the term "sluggers", save for A-Rod.:(
I didn't say bad arm, weak arm, or terrible arm - I said 'slightly below major league average for a centerfielder.' That would mean he has a pretty good arm. I never said that Gardner had a weak arm like Damon.
And I took exception (not personally, of course) to your choice of words. I have seen Brett many times in Staten Island, and even a bit in Trenton. The man can throw, period. Not a gun, not at all. But he can make the throw from the alley in RCF to 3rd base, or at least to the far cut-off man. That's plenty good, and at least "average.
And compared to Damon, he has a Howitizer. But then, so does everyone else, even Mickey Rivers. Or Bernie Williams.;)
By your standard then, I'd assume you suggest to Baseball America that when they do their offseason lists they should only look at the 'fast risers.' Is that how they put Betances on their list of the top 100 prospects in all of baseball and in the top three or four of all Yankee prospects? Was it those last 23 innings in the rookie league?
This thread is not different than those efforts by Baseball America and is not driven, or dependent upon who is hot - even though I did provide most current performance information on some of the players (where those players recent performances match scouting expectations and where there had been little information confirming scouting reports earlier). I think it will be useful to revisit all of the comments on this thread, when the season ends. And at that time look to see what the commercial talent evaluators like BA actually have for their top ten Yankee prospect lists. After all it isn't like we won't get more information on some of these ratings over the intervening months of baseball that will be played.
Just because BA ranks players based, to a certain extent, on "projectibility", does not make it right. And I do gloss over their rankings of guys who have limited Professional experience, or who have not played a season of Full-season ball. I find that there is needed more data before getting excited about kids who are very young, and have limited experience, no matter how "glossy" the HS resume.
Betances is an example. He may be a future ACE, with all the trimmings. But to base his future projections on his GCL history, which is all he had coming into this season, is rushing it a bit.
Maybe I am just cautious, but I need to see more proof in the pudding before jumping on the bandwagon of the real young, inexperienced ones. I have seen too many "can't miss" types over the past almost 40 years who actually "missed" by a mile.
McCutchen should be on lists at this point.
I think you might want to be more self-reflective and a little less quick to derisively criticize what others post. It seems like you have a lot of hard thinking still to do about how you rate Yankee prospects (http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php?t=101212).
haha is that supposed to be a burn? some guys got hurt and some guys performed better than expected? Where's your list from January? How could you even attempt to poke fun at someone else's list with your "five aces" bull spiel that you try to spin around here? You're setting yourself up for ridicule when you put together a list like this. The Jackson selection is hilarious enough, but then you look at the bottom of the list and it becomes obvious that you're taking seriously a sample size of about 10 games in the rookie leagues to rate a couple 17 year olds in a top 10 prospect list
Fabien Brandy
07-02-07, 01:47 PM
IIs that how they put Betances on their list of the top 100 prospects in all of baseball and in the top three or four of all Yankee prospects? Was it those last 23 innings in the rookie league?Overall I'm a big supporter of your analysis but I think a distinction here is that Betances was ranked pretty much on pure projection whereas Austin Jackson has a minor league track record of mixed results (which is why college basketball stars should leave early). In other words, I think people are wondering what the basis is for circling this 10-game stretch as his 'light on' moment when he's probably had similar or better 10-game stretches earlier in his minor league career.
I hope you're correct but it just seems a little premature.
He's impressed me, especially considering how messed up he appeared as a college pitcher with loads of ability, but very little good results to show for that ability.He has taken to the teachings.
I'd probably go with a list like this (excluding 07 draftees)
1. Hughes
2. Chamberlain
3. Tabata
4. Horne
5. Kennedy
6. Betances
7. Gardner
8. Cervelli
9. Marquez
10. Kontos
11. Jackson
12. Robertson
13. McAllister
14. Curtis
15. McCutchen
16. Hilligoss
17. Almonte
18. Urena
19. Whelan
20. Pirela
IrishYankee
07-02-07, 01:58 PM
Maybe.
I love Hughes2.50 lists because they do pick out the right prospects. I don't agree with his projections (most of the time) but he is fairly accurate about who will progress.
In saying that, I've been burned badly by SS stars before. I'll watch those mentioned a little closer, but until they produce in at least Charleston, I don't buy in.
AJ is a difficult case to measure. But to those who are dismissing his run as simply a hot streak, the last two athletes we had who were in any way similar were Harris and Battle, and neither produced a 10 game stretch where all indicators went the right way like his (BB:K ratio, OBP, AVG.). I think the light has gone on, and feel he could sneak into the top ten. In saying that, Tabata is ahead of him.
wang+cano=future
07-02-07, 02:00 PM
I'd probably go with a list like this (excluding 07 draftees)
1. Hughes
2. Chamberlain
3. Tabata
4. Horne
5. Kennedy
6. Betances
7. Gardner
8. Cervelli
9. Marquez
10. Kontos
11. Jackson
12. Robertson
13. McAllister
14. Curtis
15. McCutchen
16. Hilligoss
17. Almonte
18. Urena
19. Whelan
20. Pirela
Im guessing thats Action and not Stephen? :)
I'd probably go with a list like this (excluding 07 draftees)
1. Hughes
2. Chamberlain
3. Tabata
4. Horne
5. Kennedy
6. Betances
7. Gardner
8. Cervelli
9. Marquez
10. Kontos
11. Jackson
12. Robertson
13. McAllister
14. Curtis
15. McCutchen
16. Hilligoss
17. Almonte
18. Urena
19. Whelan
20. PirelaGiven their performances so far and their projections, why did you rank McCutchen behind Robertson (or even Curtis)? Robertson did not last year and neither did McCutchen (very much), but McCutchen's problems were not arm-related. Given the value of starters over closers and his strong performance this year, the argument can be made that he should be higher.
Given their performances so far and their projections, why did you rank McCutchen behind Robertson (or even Curtis)?
despite his good stuff, hes turning 25 in 2 months and only has 58 Ks in 83 IP despite it being an easy park for pitchers
rca1230
07-02-07, 02:03 PM
because he probably sees mccutchen as a future reliever like I do
despite his good stuff, hes turning 25 in 2 months and only has 58 Ks in 83 IP despite it being an easy park for pitchersYeah, but he also pitched in college and probably would have been at Trenton this year if not for the suspension, so I'm willing to give him a break for that.
His K/9 numbers are not good, granted, but his WHIP is excellent as is his K:BB ratio.
Do you see him as a reliever?
Snatch Catch
07-02-07, 02:05 PM
I would think that Robertson and Curtis could both easily be ahead of McCutchen based upon great performance in combination with great pedigree (Yanks gave both signing bonuses well over slot).
BomberBrian
07-02-07, 02:07 PM
i like your list a lot skars.
probably identical to what i would go with.
I would think that Robertson and Curtis could both easily be ahead of McCutchen based upon great performance in combination with great pedigree (Yanks gave both signing bonuses well over slot).They could and I'm not saying they shouldn't; I'm just saying that you could also make the argument that McCutchen could be higher as well.
Robertson was out last year with arm related troubles; Curtis (and you can do a search on this very forum) was viewed only as a 4th OF last year. McCutchen, on the other hand, has very good stuff and has performed consistently well. Given his current role as a starter, he should have more value than a reliever.
Yeah, but he also pitched in college and probably would have been at Trenton this year if not for the suspension, so I'm willing to give him a break for that.
His K/9 numbers are not good, granted, but his WHIP is excellent as is his K:BB ratio.
Do you see him as a reliever?
i know he pitched at college, but most college players dont enter the pros at 24 like mccutchen. he had problems with ineffectiveness and injuries. he could have signed with the yankees in 03 IIRC when they drafted him but he kept going back to school. i agree about his WHIP and K/BB but when you're older than the rest of your competition and have power stuff, but cant get guys to swing and miss you're going to be ineffective moving up the ladder. For me that spells reliever, and theres no way i can take him over Robertson. As for Curtis, unlike Hughes 2.50 i dont put much into a 8 or 9 game sample when judging players. Curtis was a first round talent out of high school, and produced a 800 OPS in a tough league for hitters in his first full year of pro ball. Theres a chance he could play CF going forward. He's a good prospect, and certainly more valuable than McCutchen IMO
i know he pitched at college, but most college players dont enter the pros at 24 like mccutchen. he had problems with ineffectiveness and injuries. he could have signed with the yankees in 03 IIRC when they drafted him but he kept going back to school. i agree about his WHIP and K/BB but when you're older than the rest of your competition and have power stuff, but cant get guys to swing and miss you're going to be ineffective moving up the ladder. For me that spells reliever, and theres no way i can take him over Robertson. As for Curtis, unlike Hughes 2.50 i dont put much into a 8 or 9 game sample when judging players. Curtis was a first round talent out of high school, and produced a 800 OPS in a tough league for hitters in his first full year of pro ball. Theres a chance he could play CF going forward. He's a good prospect, and certainly more valuable than McCutchen IMOI agree. If you view him as a reliever then he has to be behind Robertson. If he stays a starter, I think it gets closer.
Snatch Catch
07-02-07, 02:17 PM
They could and I'm not saying they shouldn't; I'm just saying that you could also make the argument that McCutchen could be higher as well.
Robertson was out last year with arm related troubles; Curtis (and you can do a search on this very forum) was viewed only as a 4th OF last year. McCutchen, on the other hand, has very good stuff and has performed consistently well. Given his current role as a starter, he should have more value than a reliever.
Don't disagree, but I think a significant portion of our opinion on the Yankees drafted in the last 3 years (since the scouting/crosschecking/draft budget was cleaned up) can be garnered from the signing bonus. Regardless of what we read in BA or Scout or PG, the Yankees tell us a lot by their willingness to spend, and the actual dollar figure is pretty telling.
Like many of us say, who are we to criticize these picks when we're only going on one or two sources and haven't seen these guys play for ourselves? If the Yankees of the past couple of years are willing to commit a dollar figure like $450,000 to a 4th rounder, or $200,000 to a 17th rounder, they have to get more attention from us as fans that follow the system. The team is telling us right there, as clear as the numbers on the paper, that they value this player more than other teams do, and considering all of the crosscheckers out there watching these kids for a living, you have to value that opinion.
I know you don't disagree, I'm just saying that Robertson and Curtis are both young guys (as someone already said, McCutchen is almost 25) that have put up extremely impressive numbers. They may have not been as highly regarded by the general community, but the Yankees stamping them with a well-over-slot-bonus tells us their opinion. And when they start putting up fantastic numbers, it's not a question of "is this guy a 4th OF anymore?" because he never was in the Yankees eyes.
Don't disagree, but I think a significant portion of our opinion on the Yankees drafted in the last 3 years (since the scouting/crosschecking/draft budget was cleaned up) can be garnered from the signing bonus. Regardless of what we read in BA or Scout or PG, the Yankees tell us a lot by their willingness to spend, and the actual dollar figure is pretty telling.
Like many of us say, who are we to criticize these picks when we're only going on one or two sources and haven't seen these guys play for ourselves? If the Yankees of the past couple of years are willing to commit a dollar figure like $450,000 to a 4th rounder, or $200,000 to a 17th rounder, they have to get more attention from us as fans that follow the system. The team is telling us right there, as clear as the numbers on the paper, that they value this player more than other teams do, and considering all of the crosscheckers out there watching these kids for a living, you have to value that opinion.
I know you don't disagree, I'm just saying that Robertson and Curtis are both young guys (as someone already said, McCutchen is almost 25) that have put up extremely impressive numbers. They may have not been as highly regarded by the general community, but the Yankees stamping them with a well-over-slot-bonus tells us their opinion. And when they start putting up fantastic numbers, it's not a question of "is this guy a 4th OF anymore?" because he never was in the Yankees eyes.Yep, that makes sense.
Snatch Catch
07-02-07, 02:23 PM
I know we're kind of talking past each other, not quite hitting on the same points, but I think it's more an issue of me saying why I think Robertson and Curtis should be above McCutchen, not searching for a reason to put McCutchen below those two.
Same thing goes for Ian Kennedy, by the way - the Yankees commited a big, overslot signing bonus to him, and now he's posting DOMINANT numbers. This wasn't a pick that the Yanks snaggged for slot value, the critics criticized, and the player started to perform. If that was the case, I could see the questions remaining. However, the Yankees stated from the very beginning that they expected this from him by the bonus they were willing to pay him. They aren't surprised by this, despite almost everyone else in the industry still not leaving Kennedy alone.
I know we're kind of talking past each other, not quite hitting on the same points, but I think it's more an issue of me saying why I think Robertson and Curtis should be above McCutchen, not searching for a reason to put McCutchen below those two.
Same thing goes for Ian Kennedy, by the way - the Yankees commited a big, overslot signing bonus to him, and now he's posting DOMINANT numbers. This wasn't a pick that the Yanks snaggged for slot value, the critics criticized, and the player started to perform. If that was the case, I could see the questions remaining. However, the Yankees stated from the very beginning that they expected this from him by the bonus they were willing to pay him. They aren't surprised by this, despite almost everyone else in the industry still not leaving Kennedy alone.I don't think that it will be true in every case, though, which is why money could be an indicator, but not the sole or guiding indicator.
Snatch Catch
07-02-07, 02:29 PM
I don't think that it will be true in every case, though, which is why money could be an indicator, but not the sole or guiding indicator.
Absolutely agree. I said in the first post that it should be a significant portion, in my opinion. However, I don't think it tells the whole story, as you say.
Given the refinement the Yankees scouting department has gone through though, I think it's a fairly safe gauge to use going forward. The fact that they've clearly begun to view the farm system as the ultimate feeder mechanism, combined with Cashman's stated goal of becoming leaner and stronger, leads me to believe that every last one of these draftpicks are given a thorough risk anlysis, and those that garner bonuses significantly over slot are given them because the Yankees want that talent in their system. When it comes to the draft, I think there is very little recklessness going on at this juncture. Just my opinion.
Absolutely agree. I said in the first post that it should be a significant portion, in my opinion. However, I don't think it tells the whole story, as you say.
Given the refinement the Yankees scouting department has gone through though, I think it's a fairly safe gauge to use going forward. The fact that they've clearly begun to view the farm system as the ultimate feeder mechanism, combined with Cashman's stated goal of becoming leaner and stronger, leads me to believe that every last one of these draftpicks are given a thorough risk anlysis, and those that garner bonuses significantly over slot are given them because the Yankees want that talent in their system. When it comes to the draft, I think there is very little recklessness going on at this juncture. Just my opinion.Well, it seems to be true, at least over the past 2 years.
Does anyone know offhand how much Duncan got? Henson?
Well, it seems to be true, at least over the past 2 years.
Does anyone know offhand how much Duncan got? Henson?
Duncan got 1.25 mil, which was slot money for the 27th pick.
more bonus numbers:
02:
71. Weeden 565 K
03:
27. Duncan 1.25 mil
64. Harris 725 K
94. Battle 425 K
04:
23. Hughes 1.4 mil
37. Poterson 925 K
41. Marquez 790 K
42. Smith 800 K
99. Garcia 390 K
05:
17. Henry 1.575 mil
63. Cox 550 K
06:
21. Kennedy 2.25 mil
41. Chamberlain 1.1 mil
Snatch Catch
07-02-07, 02:34 PM
Well, it seems to be true, at least over the past 2 years.
Does anyone know offhand how much Duncan got? Henson?
Duncan got $1,275,000, Henson got a $4.5 million signing bonus spread over 5 years, but it was broken up. $2.5 million of it was held back until he graduated Michigan and commited full-time to baseball.
Well, they sure did get wiser after that experiment :D
Snatch Catch
07-02-07, 02:36 PM
Now I'm reading somethng different (and nauseating) about Henson:
There have been rumors that Yankees owner George Steinbrenner might be ready to abandon the Henson experiment, but that would be a pretty costly proposition. The club signed Henson to a six-year, $17 million contract in 2001 and there are four years remaining on that deal.
ESPN.com has learned Henson is scheduled to make salaries of $2 million (in 2003), $2.2 million (2004), $3.8 million (2005) and $6 million (2006). Almost as significant as those amounts is the fact they are all guaranteed. And the first addendum clause in Henson's contract precludes him from playing football while still the Yankees' property.
However, he did play football (or attempt to), so perhaps the contract was voided.
i'm pretty sure this is a bug in BA's database, so take advantage while you can :)
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2007team.php?team=NYY
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2006team.php?team=NYY
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2005team.php?team=NYY
Fabien Brandy
07-02-07, 02:41 PM
Henson had several things happen - signed initially while playing football at Michigan. Then, after being traded and reacquired, he signed the larger contract with the football exclusion, and then there was a negotiation with the Yankees by which he ended up in the NFL.
Snatch Catch
07-02-07, 02:42 PM
However, he did play football (or attempt to), so perhaps the contract was voided.
The split $4.5 million was actually when he was drafted initially. The 6/17 contract was after his junior year when the Yankees bought him out of playing anymore football.
Duncan got $1,275,000, Henson got a $4.5 million signing bonus spread over 5 years, but it was broken up. $2.5 million of it was held back until he graduated Michigan and commited full-time to baseball.
Didn't Henson actually have to pay back some money to the Yankees when he severed his relationship here? I recall that part of his bonus money, and other monies, were returned.
I kinda felt bad for him, to be honest.
Snatch Catch
07-02-07, 02:50 PM
Looks like the Yankees escaped relatively unscathed from the Henson deal:
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2004/02/08/schilling_was_swayed_by_ballpark_figures/?page=4
Drew Henson left $12 million on the table when he elected to cut ties with the Yankees and try the NFL. The failed third baseman had signed a four-year, $17 million deal, and the Yankees didn't offer a buyout, knowing Henson wanted to play quarterback in the same league as his old Michigan teammate, Tom Brady.
Duncan got 1.25 mil, which was slot money for the 27th pick.
more bonus numbers:
02:
71. Weeden 565 K
03:
27. Duncan 1.25 mil
64. Harris 725 K
94. Battle 425 K
04:
23. Hughes 1.4 mil
37. Poterson 925 K
41. Marquez 790 K
42. Smith 800 K
99. Garcia 390 K
05:
17. Henry 1.575 mil
63. Cox 550 K
06:
21. Kennedy 2.25 mil
41. Chamberlain 1.1 mil
I recall every single one except the Harris money. I thought Harris got a lot closer to $1 million.
I forgot about Poterson. :(
its easy to forget how mediocre the 05 draft has become if it werent for Horne. Yeah Jackson might still end up good but theres a lot of busting there. Kroenke is already a reliever and Cox/Pendleton are shelved from injuries.
Also Gardner is turning himself around.
Fabien Brandy
07-02-07, 04:22 PM
I'd completely forgotten about Pendleton. He was supposed to be throwing at the end of Spring Training. Any update?
Yankees1962
07-02-07, 04:32 PM
its easy to forget how mediocre the 05 draft has become if it werent for Horne. Yeah Jackson might still end up good but theres a lot of busting there. Kroenke is already a reliever and Cox/Pendleton are shelved from injuries.
Also Gardner is turning himself around.
If Cox, Gardner, Jackson or Horne make it as ML players then that's pretty good out of one draft. It's not an exceptional draft percentage, but I think the Yankees only signed about 25-26 guys from that draft. Unlike the NFL, the number of baseball draft choices out of one draft making it to the big show is rather low, particularly, if a team doesn't have any extra picks at the top. The Yankees didn't that year losing their own #1 and #2 choices for Pavano and Wright.
mrmike98
07-03-07, 06:42 AM
I appreciate the hard work. However, I've got to question the Gardner evaluation.
The absolute lack of power is troubling.
Yankees1962
07-03-07, 07:12 AM
I appreciate the hard work. However, I've got to question the Gardner evaluation.
The absolute lack of power is troubling.
I've seen a lot of players without much power make great contributions to a ML team. Any guy that can get on base at .400, steal 60 bases and play outstanding defense can play on my team any day of the week. Guys like that are nothing, but pests for opposing teams.
The Dynasty
07-03-07, 08:23 AM
I've seen a lot of players without much power make great contributions to a ML team. Any guy that can get on base at .400, steal 60 bases and play outstanding defense can play on my team any day of the week. Guys like that are nothing, but pests for opposing teams.
Endy Chavez.
*cringes*
Yankees1962
07-03-07, 08:24 AM
Endy Chavez.
*cringes*
Endy is not a .400 OBP guy and has never stolen 60 bases.
I've seen a lot of players without much power make great contributions to a ML team. Any guy that can get on base at .400, steal 60 bases and play outstanding defense can play on my team any day of the week. Guys like that are nothing, but pests for opposing teams.
Y1962-
I agree. I believe it was Hughes2.50 said Brett Gardner creates havoc on the other team's defense. In this last week I've seen him beat out ground balls to the SS for clean base hits, drop bunts when they knew it was a bunt situation and beat them out, and score from first base on a single to RF. Now, I agree that the throw was up line and the catcher had to leave the plate to get the ball, but that is exactly what we're talking about. Brett's speed put that pressure on the right fielder because he knew Gardner's ability to run.
Brett's abitlity defensively to make the great play look routine. You need to be there a few games and just watch him to really appreciate what he can do. He takes hits away from opposing hitters, earns steak dinners from his pitchers, makes base runners pull up at third on base hits in front of him because of the speed in which he gets to the ball. That with an average but accurate throwing arm--I'll take that in my line-up any day of the week. He made a running catch in the right centerfield gap late in the game last night that belongs on the top 5 plays of the day on SportsCenter. We were up by the winning score of 9-1 and he still plays the game the right way. I tip my cap to him. The way he plays the game is contagious to other players--you bet I want that in my dug out.:rockin:
The Dynasty
07-03-07, 08:53 AM
Endy is not a .400 OBP guy and has never stolen 60 bases.
Regarding OBP, agreed. But by making the Endy Chavez reference, I'm making the point that I feel that I see his potential as an Endy Chavez-type, just with a higher OBP. I don't see him being a full-time starter on a top-tier team, but he can be a very valuable piece of the puzzle in the National League. Although I agree with you regarding Endy and the 60 SB, I don't think it's outlandish to guess thta 40-50 SBs would be realistic if he played full-time.
mrmike98
07-03-07, 09:03 AM
Regarding Gardner I think a lot has to do with the way the team is assembled in the coming years. (Whether there will be power bats in the lineup)
I cringe as I type this but maybe he projects more as a Dave Roberts type player.
Fabien Brandy
07-03-07, 09:13 AM
I appreciate the hard work. However, I've got to question the Gardner evaluation.
The absolute lack of power is troubling.Inside-the-park homeruns are still homeruns!!!
TheDynasty26
07-03-07, 09:23 AM
The Yankees didn't that year losing their own #1 and #2 choices for Pavano and Wright.
:jaw-drop:
WeekendWarrior
07-03-07, 10:26 AM
Gardner in centerfield and at the top of the order will help bring balance to the yankees in the future. Assuming that they reload some power bats, a player like gardner is exactly what the yankees need at the top of their lineup.
dont_ya_know24
07-03-07, 10:37 AM
Gardner in centerfield and at the top of the order will help bring balance to the yankees in the future. Assuming that they reload some power bats, a player like gardner is exactly what the yankees need at the top of their lineup.
exactly.
people need to realize that you don't need to have 30-40 HR power at every spot in your order to have a successful lineup.
Even if Gardner isn't a starter on a "loaded" team and more of an Endy Chavez/Dave Roberts type (with a better OBP), that doesn't mean he can't be helpful as a 4th OF'er type. He's a pest with great on-base ability, which does have value to the Yankees going forward. I wouldn't put him anywhere near "untradable" prospects, but I do think he's the most ML-ready hitter the Yanks have right now.
Even if Gardner isn't a starter on a "loaded" team and more of an Endy Chavez/Dave Roberts type (with a better OBP), that doesn't mean he can't be helpful as a 4th OF'er type. He's a pest with great on-base ability, which does have value to the Yankees going forward. I wouldn't put him anywhere near "untradable" prospects, but I do think he's the most ML-ready hitter the Yanks have right now.Shelley Duncan is most likely that.
Art Vanderlay
07-03-07, 11:52 AM
Shelley Duncan is most likely that.
Duncan's 27% K rate against AAA pitching scares me.
matcohen
07-05-07, 05:41 PM
I tend to count risk as opposed to upside. A lot of these lower level guys have very high bust factors because they might not adjust to the competition at higher levels.
1. Chamberlain - obvious
2. Tabata - only 18 at high A
3. Horne - doing very well despite unlucky high BABIP
4. Kennedy - doing very well
5. Betances - high celing, high risk given control issues
6. Cervelli - has slipped of late
7. Gardner - can be a decent center fielder
8. Kontos - doing well - needs a promotion to show his stuff at AA
9. Robertson - lights out at low A - let's hope he gets to Trenton by year-end
10. McAllister - great young pitcher - high risk given performance to date
Hughes - would be #1
Clippard - would be after Kennedy
(Cox) - great pitcher - he'll be back
11. Marquez - underwhelming performance at AA relative to other pitchers
(Sanchez) - he's going to be a reliever at best
12. Jackson - has been mediocre until recently - let's wait until we throw the party for him
(Garcia) - could be good if he can stay healthy
13. Wright - could still turn it around
14. Corona - no power but is performing ok at high A at 20
15. Almonte (Zolio) - too early to make top 10
16. Dunn - doing well for first full year as a pitcher - old for low A
17. Miranda - is 26 - could rise if he rakes at AA
18. Hilligoss - old for level - limited power
19. Whelan - terrible control this year - maybe he'll get it fixed
20. Pirela - too early to tell
21. Cuello - too early to tell but looks promising
22. Urena - too early to tell
Unrated
Ohlendorf - bust so far as a Yankee
Curtis -limited power for an outfielder
McCutchen - low K rate, high age for level -
Melancon - zero professional experience
Smith (Brett) - has been lucky
DeSalvo - too many walks
Vechionaci - can't make consistent contact
Claggett - disappointing year at High A
rca1230
07-05-07, 05:44 PM
miranda is 24.. not 26.. but i like your list
matcohen
07-05-07, 05:52 PM
http://www.yankeesprospects.com/player.php?id=395&pos=300
says 26
rca1230
07-05-07, 05:55 PM
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Juan%2520Miranda&pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=506673
says 24
matcohen
07-05-07, 05:58 PM
well - he is Latin - these things are relative down there - Magic Realism and all.
;-)
mrmike98
07-05-07, 05:58 PM
I tend to count risk as opposed to upside. A lot of these lower level guys have very high bust factors because they might not adjust to the competition at higher levels.
1. Chamberlain - obvious
2. Tabata - only 18 at high A
3. Horne - doing very well despite unlucky high BABIP
4. Kennedy - doing very well
5. Betances - high celing, high risk given control issues
6. Cervelli - has slipped of late
7. Gardner - can be a decent center fielder
8. Kontos - doing well - needs a promotion to show his stuff at AA
9. Robertson - lights out at low A - let's hope he gets to Trenton by year-end
10. McAllister - great young pitcher - high risk given performance to date
Hughes - would be #1
Clippard - would be after Kennedy
(Cox) - great pitcher - he'll be back
11. Marquez - underwhelming performance at AA relative to other pitchers
(Sanchez) - he's going to be a reliever at best
12. Jackson - has been mediocre until recently - let's wait until we throw the party for him
(Garcia) - could be good if he can stay healthy
13. Wright - could still turn it around
14. Corona - no power but is performing ok at high A at 20
15. Almonte (Zolio) - too early to make top 10
16. Dunn - doing well for first full year as a pitcher - old for low A
17. Miranda - not overwhelming performance at AA so far - is 26
18. Hilligoss - old for level - limited power
19. Whelan - terrible control this year - maybe he'll get it fixed
20. Pirela - too early to tell
21. Cuello - too early to tell but looks promising
22. Urena - too early to tell
Unrated
Ohlendorf - bust so far as a Yankee
Curtis -limited power for an outfielder
McCutchen - low K rate, high age for level -
Melancon - zero professional experience
Smith (Brett) - has been lucky
DeSalvo - too many walks
Vechionaci - can't make consistent contact
Claggett - disappointing year at High A
Seems realistic to me as of today.
well - he is Latin - these things are relative down there - Magic Realism and all.
;-)Not if they want visas.
Yankees-26rings
07-05-07, 06:36 PM
Hey, I was just wondering if there was site for minor leaguers that has all the sabermatrician stats like BABIP. I've been trying to find one but I haven't anything good so far.
matcohen
07-05-07, 07:05 PM
Hey, I was just wondering if there was site for minor leaguers that has all the sabermatrician stats like BABIP. I've been trying to find one but I haven't anything good so far.
http://firstinning.com/
Got Melky
07-05-07, 11:19 PM
I think a very good prospect who might not get enough credit is Juan Miranda. .333 BA/1 HR/4 RBI's/.406 OBS in 10 games in AA. And is 24.
And where is Jesus Montero playing right now?
And where is Jesus Montero playing right now?
He's hurt right now but he'll be playing in the GCL in 1 or 2 weeks.
Matsui55
07-05-07, 11:24 PM
I tend to count risk as opposed to upside. A lot of these lower level guys have very high bust factors because they might not adjust to the competition at higher levels.
1. Chamberlain - obvious
2. Tabata - only 18 at high A
3. Horne - doing very well despite unlucky high BABIP
4. Kennedy - doing very well
5. Betances - high celing, high risk given control issues
6. Cervelli - has slipped of late
7. Gardner - can be a decent center fielder
8. Kontos - doing well - needs a promotion to show his stuff at AA
9. Robertson - lights out at low A - let's hope he gets to Trenton by year-end
10. McAllister - great young pitcher - high risk given performance to date
Hughes - would be #1
Clippard - would be after Kennedy
(Cox) - great pitcher - he'll be back
11. Marquez - underwhelming performance at AA relative to other pitchers
(Sanchez) - he's going to be a reliever at best
12. Jackson - has been mediocre until recently - let's wait until we throw the party for him
(Garcia) - could be good if he can stay healthy
13. Wright - could still turn it around
14. Corona - no power but is performing ok at high A at 20
15. Almonte (Zolio) - too early to make top 10
16. Dunn - doing well for first full year as a pitcher - old for low A
17. Miranda - is 26 - could rise if he rakes at AA
18. Hilligoss - old for level - limited power
19. Whelan - terrible control this year - maybe he'll get it fixed
20. Pirela - too early to tell
21. Cuello - too early to tell but looks promising
22. Urena - too early to tell
Unrated
Ohlendorf - bust so far as a Yankee
Curtis -limited power for an outfielder
McCutchen - low K rate, high age for level -
Melancon - zero professional experience
Smith (Brett) - has been lucky
DeSalvo - too many walks
Vechionaci - can't make consistent contact
Claggett - disappointing year at High A
A little different list, with rationales (I am not including Hughes, because except for rehabs, he isn't going to spend any more time in the minors). I also do not rate rookies, as short season does not give an accurate picture of the player- wait till they reach full-season ball, where they must grind it out daily.
1) Chamberlain- at least a #2, if he can stay healthy
2) Tabata- at 18, the power comes later- right now, showing the bat is for real
3) Kennedy- gets knocked for not having a blazing FB- but sometimes knowing where to pitch and how to mix up pitches is better than how fast the ball gets there
4) Jackson- the sky is the limit here, but he needs a LOT of upper level (AA and AAA) Ab's to fully develop- there is no rsuh here with Gardner in front of him- ETA- 2010
5) Clippard- so long as he takes his AAA lessons seriously, I see no reason why he should not be a strong competitor to be the #5 starter in NY next year
6) Horne- is finally showing why he was a first round pick out of HS- he is the real deal. He will pitch in NY- but is he a starter or reliever?
7) Gardner- can run like the wind, but has VERY little pop in his bat. The track record for slap hitters isn't that good- but he deserves at least a chance. ETA- end of 2008- extended trial then and early 2009 to see if he can hit
8) Betances- has the arm, but needs a TON of IP and time. NY pitchers just don't throw as much as Southern kids do- will be brought along slowly to baby the arm- ETA 2010- cup of coffee- 2011 for good.
9) Sanchez- starting days are likely over- but he should be placed in the NY bullpen to apprentice with Mo for a year, and eventually be his successor- power sinker and slider should be a good power reliever. With the TJ surgery, may not see him at full strength until 2009- but he has remarkable numbers in 2005 with an arm that likely already required TJ surgery- indicates he may be able to be useful in 2008 despite not being at full strength
10) Cox- in a close call, I give him the nod- he will likely be part of the 2008 pen as well- has elbow surgery, but not TJ- does that mean he doesn't need the 2 years to fully recover his stuff? I don't know. Regardless, he has a good future before him
11) Christian Garcia- another TJ casualty- but assuming that the surgery restores him to full strength (and the track record gets better every year), few in the system match his raw stuff. 2008 may be no more than a strength building year- likely in Tampa, with 2009 being the big year. However, because he didn't build up a lot of IP before the injury, he may be headed to the pen as well
12) Cervelli- nice to see a C who can hit and apparently is a decent defensive C as well. However, the road to being a ML C is long- as the prospect must learn not only to survive the 162 game grind, but be ready for the post-season at the end. He will be a level-to-level guy, playing and playing his way into a full time role. ETA- 2010, possibly with a mentor splitting time, then 2011 as a regular, if he continues the present progress rate
13) Miranda- is finally getting comfortable- the adjustment for Cuban players is much greater than that for other Latin players. Once the cultural and other barriers are cleared, his bat should get him to NY. However, appears to be limited to 1B or DH- will he hit enough at the bigs to hold these spots? I am not sure yet- come back next year.
14) Melacon- as a major college power reliever, he will move fast. Since he is another TJ alum, 2008 should be at high A Tampa building strength, with 2009 at Trenton and then see what they have. SHould at least be a power set-up man
15) Vechionacci- has GREAT defensive ability- it is only the bat holding him back. Will not turn 21 until August, and is finally showing signs that he will hit. Next year will be the big test- at Trenton- if he can hit at AA, 3B will be his.
16) McCutchen- due to the 50 game suspension, has fallen a bit behind the other arms- but should be in AA before the end of the year. May be a very deep sleeper, as he has always been highly though of- this season is really his big test- will be in Trenton in 2008, and will likely get noticed nationally then
17) Kontos- has a power arm, but needs to build IP. Will be part of another powerful Trenton rotation in 2008- will that group be as successful as the 2007 class?
18) McCallister- has stuff, though not in Betances class. He will be moved slowly as well- maybe tracking together with Betances. Needs a big year in 2008.
19) Robertson- just completely dominated low A ball- now in high A ball. Will he be another college closer who runs through the minors, or does he need more refinement. 2008's test in Trenton should be interesting.
20) Marquez- I have never really bought all in on him- his stuff should produce more results than he has to date, even with the gaudy AA numbers this year. He may need to repeat or improve in AAA next year to gain more attention and consideration.
21-30)
A lot of relievers and role guys here. To close to really rank, so I will just list a lot of names here:
Hilligoss
Whelan
Brett Smith
Wordekemper (watch him- he is versatile and throws in the 90's- may be able to contribute as a middle reliever in the bigs)
Kyle Anson (appears to be developing as a very good defensive C, who can hit a bit- still early in the transition- at 24, might not have much time to prove himself- watch him in 2008 and 2009)
Ohlendorf- raw stuff is good, but may not be a starter
Eric Duncan- has all the tools, but will it ever come together? Yanks may need 2008 to see him in AAA again before making their decision
Claggett- has the pitches, but control is an issue
Ferdie Tejada- converted pitcher has had TJ surgery; this year is arm strength building season- before surgery threw easily in the high 90's with a developing slider- if he can regain his stuff, 2008 could be an interesting year
Alberto Gonzalez- supposed to be a great defensive SS- haven't seen it this year- but if he can recover defensively, could be a nice middle INF sub, or trade throw-in
Miranda and Jackson were promoted at the right time! (actually Miranda should have been up sooner).
destiNY
07-05-07, 11:29 PM
Do we have a scouting report on Miranda's 1B defense?
Matsui55
07-05-07, 11:30 PM
A little different list, with rationales (I am not including Hughes, because except for rehabs, he isn't going to spend any more time in the minors). I also do not rate rookies, as short season does not give an accurate picture of the player- wait till they reach full-season ball, where they must grind it out daily.
1) Chamberlain- at least a #2, if he can stay healthy
2) Tabata- at 18, the power comes later- right now, showing the bat is for real
3) Kennedy- gets knocked for not having a blazing FB- but sometimes knowing where to pitch and how to mix up pitches is better than how fast the ball gets there
4) Jackson- the sky is the limit here, but he needs a LOT of upper level (AA and AAA) Ab's to fully develop- there is no rsuh here with Gardner in front of him- ETA- 2010
5) Clippard- so long as he takes his AAA lessons seriously, I see no reason why he should not be a strong competitor to be the #5 starter in NY next year
6) Horne- is finally showing why he was a first round pick out of HS- he is the real deal. He will pitch in NY- but is he a starter or reliever?
7) Gardner- can run like the wind, but has VERY little pop in his bat. The track record for slap hitters isn't that good- but he deserves at least a chance. ETA- end of 2008- extended trial then and early 2009 to see if he can hit
8) Betances- has the arm, but needs a TON of IP and time. NY pitchers just don't throw as much as Southern kids do- will be brought along slowly to baby the arm- ETA 2010- cup of coffee- 2011 for good.
9) Sanchez- starting days are likely over- but he should be placed in the NY bullpen to apprentice with Mo for a year, and eventually be his successor- power sinker and slider should be a good power reliever. With the TJ surgery, may not see him at full strength until 2009- but he has remarkable numbers in 2005 with an arm that likely already required TJ surgery- indicates he may be able to be useful in 2008 despite not being at full strength
10) Cox- in a close call, I give him the nod- he will likely be part of the 2008 pen as well- has elbow surgery, but not TJ- does that mean he doesn't need the 2 years to fully recover his stuff? I don't know. Regardless, he has a good future before him
11) Christian Garcia- another TJ casualty- but assuming that the surgery restores him to full strength (and the track record gets better every year), few in the system match his raw stuff. 2008 may be no more than a strength building year- likely in Tampa, with 2009 being the big year. However, because he didn't build up a lot of IP before the injury, he may be headed to the pen as well
12) Cervelli- nice to see a C who can hit and apparently is a decent defensive C as well. However, the road to being a ML C is long- as the prospect must learn not only to survive the 162 game grind, but be ready for the post-season at the end. He will be a level-to-level guy, playing and playing his way into a full time role. ETA- 2010, possibly with a mentor splitting time, then 2011 as a regular, if he continues the present progress rate
13) Miranda- is finally getting comfortable- the adjustment for Cuban players is much greater than that for other Latin players. Once the cultural and other barriers are cleared, his bat should get him to NY. However, appears to be limited to 1B or DH- will he hit enough at the bigs to hold these spots? I am not sure yet- come back next year.
14) Melacon- as a major college power reliever, he will move fast. Since he is another TJ alum, 2008 should be at high A Tampa building strength, with 2009 at Trenton and then see what they have. SHould at least be a power set-up man
15) Vechionacci- has GREAT defensive ability- it is only the bat holding him back. Will not turn 21 until August, and is finally showing signs that he will hit. Next year will be the big test- at Trenton- if he can hit at AA, 3B will be his.
16) McCutchen- due to the 50 game suspension, has fallen a bit behind the other arms- but should be in AA before the end of the year. May be a very deep sleeper, as he has always been highly though of- this season is really his big test- will be in Trenton in 2008, and will likely get noticed nationally then
17) Kontos- has a power arm, but needs to build IP. Will be part of another powerful Trenton rotation in 2008- will that group be as successful as the 2007 class?
18) McCallister- has stuff, though not in Betances class. He will be moved slowly as well- maybe tracking together with Betances. Needs a big year in 2008.
19) Robertson- just completely dominated low A ball- now in high A ball. Will he be another college closer who runs through the minors, or does he need more refinement. 2008's test in Trenton should be interesting.
20) Marquez- I have never really bought all in on him- his stuff should produce more results than he has to date, even with the gaudy AA numbers this year. He may need to repeat or improve in AAA next year to gain more attention and consideration.
21-30)
A lot of relievers and role guys here. To close to really rank, so I will just list a lot of names here:
Hilligoss
Whelan
Brett Smith
Wordekemper (watch him- he is versatile and throws in the 90's- may be able to contribute as a middle reliever in the bigs)
Kyle Anson (appears to be developing as a very good defensive C, who can hit a bit- still early in the transition- at 24, might not have much time to prove himself- watch him in 2008 and 2009)
Ohlendorf- raw stuff is good, but may not be a starter
Eric Duncan- has all the tools, but will it ever come together? Yanks may need 2008 to see him in AAA again before making their decision
Claggett- has the pitches, but control is an issue
Ferdie Tejada- converted pitcher has had TJ surgery; this year is arm strength building season- before surgery threw easily in the high 90's with a developing slider- if he can regain his stuff, 2008 could be an interesting year
Alberto Gonzalez- supposed to be a great defensive SS- haven't seen it this year- but if he can recover defensively, could be a nice middle INF sub, or trade throw-in
I thought about adding Curtis, but I don't see him as much more than a sub
Got Melky
07-05-07, 11:43 PM
He's hurt right now but he'll be playing in the GCL in 1 or 2 weeks.Thanks man. Miranda played well today went 3 for 4 with a double and 2 RBI's.
BennyTheJetRodriguez
07-06-07, 12:58 AM
A little different list, with rationales (I am not including Hughes, because except for rehabs, he isn't going to spend any more time in the minors). I also do not rate rookies, as short season does not give an accurate picture of the player- wait till they reach full-season ball, where they must grind it out daily.
1) Chamberlain- at least a #2, if he can stay healthy
2) Tabata- at 18, the power comes later- right now, showing the bat is for real
3) Kennedy- gets knocked for not having a blazing FB- but sometimes knowing where to pitch and how to mix up pitches is better than how fast the ball gets there
4) Jackson- the sky is the limit here, but he needs a LOT of upper level (AA and AAA) Ab's to fully develop- there is no rsuh here with Gardner in front of him- ETA- 2010
5) Clippard- so long as he takes his AAA lessons seriously, I see no reason why he should not be a strong competitor to be the #5 starter in NY next year
6) Horne- is finally showing why he was a first round pick out of HS- he is the real deal. He will pitch in NY- but is he a starter or reliever?
7) Gardner- can run like the wind, but has VERY little pop in his bat. The track record for slap hitters isn't that good- but he deserves at least a chance. ETA- end of 2008- extended trial then and early 2009 to see if he can hit
8) Betances- has the arm, but needs a TON of IP and time. NY pitchers just don't throw as much as Southern kids do- will be brought along slowly to baby the arm- ETA 2010- cup of coffee- 2011 for good.
9) Sanchez- starting days are likely over- but he should be placed in the NY bullpen to apprentice with Mo for a year, and eventually be his successor- power sinker and slider should be a good power reliever. With the TJ surgery, may not see him at full strength until 2009- but he has remarkable numbers in 2005 with an arm that likely already required TJ surgery- indicates he may be able to be useful in 2008 despite not being at full strength
10) Cox- in a close call, I give him the nod- he will likely be part of the 2008 pen as well- has elbow surgery, but not TJ- does that mean he doesn't need the 2 years to fully recover his stuff? I don't know. Regardless, he has a good future before him
11) Christian Garcia- another TJ casualty- but assuming that the surgery restores him to full strength (and the track record gets better every year), few in the system match his raw stuff. 2008 may be no more than a strength building year- likely in Tampa, with 2009 being the big year. However, because he didn't build up a lot of IP before the injury, he may be headed to the pen as well
12) Cervelli- nice to see a C who can hit and apparently is a decent defensive C as well. However, the road to being a ML C is long- as the prospect must learn not only to survive the 162 game grind, but be ready for the post-season at the end. He will be a level-to-level guy, playing and playing his way into a full time role. ETA- 2010, possibly with a mentor splitting time, then 2011 as a regular, if he continues the present progress rate
13) Miranda- is finally getting comfortable- the adjustment for Cuban players is much greater than that for other Latin players. Once the cultural and other barriers are cleared, his bat should get him to NY. However, appears to be limited to 1B or DH- will he hit enough at the bigs to hold these spots? I am not sure yet- come back next year.
14) Melacon- as a major college power reliever, he will move fast. Since he is another TJ alum, 2008 should be at high A Tampa building strength, with 2009 at Trenton and then see what they have. SHould at least be a power set-up man
15) Vechionacci- has GREAT defensive ability- it is only the bat holding him back. Will not turn 21 until August, and is finally showing signs that he will hit. Next year will be the big test- at Trenton- if he can hit at AA, 3B will be his.
16) McCutchen- due to the 50 game suspension, has fallen a bit behind the other arms- but should be in AA before the end of the year. May be a very deep sleeper, as he has always been highly though of- this season is really his big test- will be in Trenton in 2008, and will likely get noticed nationally then
17) Kontos- has a power arm, but needs to build IP. Will be part of another powerful Trenton rotation in 2008- will that group be as successful as the 2007 class?
18) McCallister- has stuff, though not in Betances class. He will be moved slowly as well- maybe tracking together with Betances. Needs a big year in 2008.
19) Robertson- just completely dominated low A ball- now in high A ball. Will he be another college closer who runs through the minors, or does he need more refinement. 2008's test in Trenton should be interesting.
20) Marquez- I have never really bought all in on him- his stuff should produce more results than he has to date, even with the gaudy AA numbers this year. He may need to repeat or improve in AAA next year to gain more attention and consideration.
21-30)
A lot of relievers and role guys here. To close to really rank, so I will just list a lot of names here:
Hilligoss
Whelan
Brett Smith
Wordekemper (watch him- he is versatile and throws in the 90's- may be able to contribute as a middle reliever in the bigs)
Kyle Anson (appears to be developing as a very good defensive C, who can hit a bit- still early in the transition- at 24, might not have much time to prove himself- watch him in 2008 and 2009)
Ohlendorf- raw stuff is good, but may not be a starter
Eric Duncan- has all the tools, but will it ever come together? Yanks may need 2008 to see him in AAA again before making their decision
Claggett- has the pitches, but control is an issue
Ferdie Tejada- converted pitcher has had TJ surgery; this year is arm strength building season- before surgery threw easily in the high 90's with a developing slider- if he can regain his stuff, 2008 could be an interesting year
Alberto Gonzalez- supposed to be a great defensive SS- haven't seen it this year- but if he can recover defensively, could be a nice middle INF sub, or trade throw-inI've been asking around about Wordkemper and nobody really had answers for me. I know his control is amazing, but wasn't aware of what type of stuff he had. Low 90's fastball you say? If he has any type of breaking stuff then why are they being soooo slow with him? He has to be close to his ceiling.
Also I would have Kontos ahead of McCutchen easily. Great list. Extreemly close to how I would have it, though Clipp would be lower for me.
RollingWave
07-06-07, 02:04 AM
A few thoughts on a few guys
Jackson: Torii Hunter and the plate and Damon on the bases? why not just compare him to Curtis Granderson? it's the perfect match, CF, some strike out problems but decent enough walks, power potential. speed..raw tools putting it together. they are even extremely similiar in body type as well. and Granderson also played A+ in the FSL, so how Jackson does this year in A+ compare with Granderson could give us a very good hint on his potential and future.
Gardner: Posdeniek? I think Juan Pierre with better defense make much more sense. Gardner's defense owns Posdeneik easily but his power is still very limited even when compare to Posdeniek. potentially he could put up Pierre's Marlin years like number, which is completely awsome for the cost. at worest he should be a much better version of Bubba Crosby, a guy that can play good D and swipe a bag anytime he wants with a bat that's not completely atrocious. i think you put him a tad too high though, guys like him could easily bomb in the majors. he has a chance to be very useful, but also a chance to be Bubba Crosby, Bubba Crosby don't belong on any team's top 10 no matter how bad teh farm is .. and ours isn't bad right now.
I would easily put Marquez and Kontos wayyyy ahead of McCutchen right now. Marquez is intriguing, his stuff should produce better lines than it is, but the results are still there, he might actually be holding something back or simply experimenting on something. Kontos is a bit raw but should at worest be a good reliever and at best Alan Horne like.
Miranda is simply a mystry isn't he, everything about him... kind like El Duque i suppose heh.
Gardner gets on base better than Podsednik or Pierre ever did or will.
RollingWave
07-06-07, 03:34 AM
Pierre 01/03/04 was pretty good at walking .
Matsui55, why do you like McCutcheon over Kontos? I like your list but it really underrates Kontos and Marquez.
Corona, Curtis, White, and Wright (future LOOGY) should be in that 20-30 range.
BRONXBOMBERS06
07-06-07, 06:22 AM
Matsui55 thanks for all the info and effort put into the minor league future Yankees.
Hughes2.50
07-06-07, 08:22 AM
In the first link below, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus talks about the Yankees farm system. Unfortunately for him, as with most supposed experts they can't know what's going on in each organization with each prospect, all the time. We've seen Keith Law downplay Alan Horne's prospects recently, and in these quotes from less than a month ago, Goldstein similarly dismisses Austin Jackson who was just them showing the Yankees organization that he was making the necessary adjustments to begin fulfilling his vast potential.
http://beta.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070612&content_id=1425927&oid=36019&vkey
Even with a guy who didn't work out, Austin Jackson, it shows what they can do. They can laugh and walk away. A lot of other teams can't. They've been doing that the last three years. <p>People forget that before Jackson fell in love with basketball in High School, he was clearly the most talented youngster in his age group for some time, and that the Yankees were onto him since 1999 when he was twelve years old.<p>http://apse.dallasnews.com/contest/2002/writing/over250/over250.enterprise.fifth4.html
The New York Yankees were the first. They began compiling scouting reports on "The Can't-Miss Kid" back in the spring of 1999.<p>The reports mention his "lightning" wrists, his "quick" bat and his "strong" arm.<p> "The kid is one in a million," says the scout who stumbled upon him for the Yankees. "He is a can't-miss kid."
That same year, Baseball America, a respected national publication that specializes in tracking future major leaguers, anointed the scout's "Can't-Miss Kid" the best player for his age in the entire United States. <p>The Kid was in good company. Alex Rodriguez, then 24, was tops in his age group. So, too, were Derek Jeter, 25, and Vladimir Guerrero, 23, and Andruw Jones, 22, major league All-Stars all.
At the prestigious COPABE Pan American AA Youth Baseball Championships in Venezuela, Austin and his teammates played against the best 16-and-under players from Cuba, Mexico and the Dominican Republic.<p> Austin, one of only four players to start every game for Team USA, hit .440 for the tournament.<p>Blessed with extraordinary hand-eye coordination, sprinter's speed, phenomenal fast-twitch muscles and an advanced understanding of the game, Austin may well be every parent's youth dream. The above article is a very good read, and somewhere Mark Batchko is smiling a very broad smile. It is fortunate for the Yankees that they were able to convince Austin Jackson that he ought to give up his high school love - basketball, to become a great baseball player, something he was destined to be from an early age.
Reggievision
07-06-07, 08:52 AM
Originally Posted by Kevin Goldstein
Even with a guy who didn't work out, Austin Jackson, it shows what they can do. They can laugh and walk away. A lot of other teams can't. They've been doing that the last three years.
Ah, there it is - that sneering, sniffling admission of how unfair it all is that the Yankees have so much money. Keep it up and perhaps ESPN will come calling.
Yankees1962
07-06-07, 08:57 AM
I wonder when that interview took place because they talk like Chamberlain is still in Tampa and probably have Jackson still in Charleston?
ARoDfan4life
07-06-07, 09:20 AM
http://media.scout.com/media/image/44/442640.jpg
you had me at hello :ga-ga:
NY_GOLDENARMS
07-06-07, 11:01 AM
http://apse.dallasnews.com/contest/2002/writing/over250/over250url.enterprise.fifth4.html The above article is a very good read, and somewhere Mark Batchko is smiling a very broad smile. It is fortunate for the Yankees that they were able to convince Austin Jackson that he ought to give up his high school love - basketball, to become a great baseball player, something he was destined to be from an early age.
Great find 2.50, I wasn't able to access the full article, do you have it?
Matsui55
07-06-07, 12:55 PM
I've been asking around about Wordkemper and nobody really had answers for me. I know his control is amazing, but wasn't aware of what type of stuff he had. Low 90's fastball you say? If he has any type of breaking stuff then why are they being soooo slow with him? He has to be close to his ceiling.
Also I would have Kontos ahead of McCutchen easily. Great list. Extreemly close to how I would have it, though Clipp would be lower for me.
To explain my reasoning, I think McCutchen gets to NY well ahead of Kontos. Kontos might have a higher ceiling, but he's going to take longer to get there with the age and arm issue. McCutchen is probably weeks from a promotion to AA, while Kontos probably now needs to pitch the whole season in Tampa to "catch up" from the time off.
As for Wordekemper, when he was drafted, BA had a blurb on him saying that he had arm injury issues that dropped him in the draft. However, BA had him throwing in the low 90's pre-injury, with breaking stuff. Even then though, he projected as a reliever.
On a different issue, what might be interesting to note about Wordekemper, he was one of the first times in recent years that the Yanks used summer league (read wood bat league) performance to decide whether to sign a college guy. He did well, and signed. Soon after, Robertson followed this route. That is why I have a great deal of confidence that if several of this year's draftees perform well in summer leagues, the Yanks will sign them- so don't be worried about the inordinate number of unsigned players who are in summer ball right now.
Matsui55
07-06-07, 01:03 PM
Matsui55, why do you like McCutcheon over Kontos? I like your list but it really underrates Kontos and Marquez.
Corona, Curtis, White, and Wright (future LOOGY) should be in that 20-30 range.
As I explain in my above post, it came down to who would arrive in NY first. I think the layoff this summer set Kontos' time table back a good bit, while McCutchen should not be far from being promoted to AA.
I see Curtis as a 4th/5th OF type- no standout tools, with a number of Yankee OF (Jackson, Tabata, etc) who have much better tools passing him.
I agree White should be in the discussion, but not as a starter- because he has a good FB, and a lot of work-in-progress breaking stuff- and is already 26, he might not be much more than a middle reliever. Even then he might struggle without a good breaking pitch.
If I were to guess, White is the AAA pitcher most likely to be included in a trade this summer (not as the centerpiece, but to fill the deal).
I didn't like Wright's stuff before his disasterous April call-up, and like it even less now after seeing his stuff in ML action. He MIGHT be a useful bullpen guy, but I'm not really counting on it. He may also be included in a trade this summer.
Corona had a MUCH better 2005 than he is having this year- that raises big warning flags to me, since he's not even out of A ball. Granted, he is playing out of position at SS (he really is a 2B)- but unless he steps it up, he could get passed quickly by some of this year's draft's VERY interesting middle INF prospects. I am going to hold off on him until 2008-
Remember that the Yanks are fairly deep at 2B, while C and SS have a clearer run through the system, so when in doubt, I raise the true SS and C above a 1B/2B prospect- and there aren't many 3B at all worth much in the system (outside of Vechionacci).
Matsui55
07-06-07, 01:10 PM
A few thoughts on a few guys
Jackson: Torii Hunter and the plate and Damon on the bases? why not just compare him to Curtis Granderson? it's the perfect match, CF, some strike out problems but decent enough walks, power potential. speed..raw tools putting it together. they are even extremely similiar in body type as well. and Granderson also played A+ in the FSL, so how Jackson does this year in A+ compare with Granderson could give us a very good hint on his potential and future.
Gardner: Posdeniek? I think Juan Pierre with better defense make much more sense. Gardner's defense owns Posdeneik easily but his power is still very limited even when compare to Posdeniek. potentially he could put up Pierre's Marlin years like number, which is completely awsome for the cost. at worest he should be a much better version of Bubba Crosby, a guy that can play good D and swipe a bag anytime he wants with a bat that's not completely atrocious. i think you put him a tad too high though, guys like him could easily bomb in the majors. he has a chance to be very useful, but also a chance to be Bubba Crosby, Bubba Crosby don't belong on any team's top 10 no matter how bad teh farm is .. and ours isn't bad right now.
I would easily put Marquez and Kontos wayyyy ahead of McCutchen right now. Marquez is intriguing, his stuff should produce better lines than it is, but the results are still there, he might actually be holding something back or simply experimenting on something. Kontos is a bit raw but should at worest be a good reliever and at best Alan Horne like.
Miranda is simply a mystry isn't he, everything about him... kind like El Duque i suppose heh.
I think that Jackson might not end up in CF when he gets to NY. Remember that I noted that LF is large in NY, and he might be better off there. Since he is grabbing hold of the strike zone (finally!), I think Damon as a LF (with a MUCH better arm) would be a good comparison.
Gardner is hard to pin down. If I really had to draw on what I think his best case projection might be, for those who remember (throw out the sabermetrics if you never saw him play) would be an in his prime Otis Nixon (when he was with the Braves, not the Yankee years). Nixon, for those who never saw him play at his best, was a slap hitter with no power, but could drive the other team nuts trying to stop him from stealing a base.
Nixon was NOT a good OBP guy, and I think that Garnder has a better idea of the strike zone. However, with the low power, teams may just bust him inside with hard stuff to try and overpower his bat, which will lower his OBP a bit. He still should get on base more than Nixon, but the fielding (all about speed, not instinct) and SB ability project as Nixon with a higher BA and OBP.
Kontos is just behind McCutchen right now. I also like Horne a LOT more than Kontos right now.
As for Marquez, I have never been as high as others here and elsewhere are. With his stuff, he should get MUCH better results than he does. He gets hit far too hard- especially in comparison to Wang, who he really should be trying to emulate. I just don't see Marquez as a ML starter, just because he doesn't go deep into games, and doesn't seem to have that extra "it" that good starters have. He might be a very good Jeff Nelson type- just the person to come in and get that double play ground ball when you need it.
Miranda is no different than most Cuban players. He needs adjustment time. I think the Yanks did the smart thing by letting him take his time in Fla. until he could deal with the big change. Remember that Cuba is VERY different from any other Latin nation with the Communist aspect. Even the best Latin players need language and culture adjustment time- but they generally come from capitalist societies. However, to Cubans, the switch is enormous- they really don't understand the capitalist society, and have to adjust to that- may that first and foremost. That lengthens their learning curve. This is a good building season, but watch him closely in 2008.
Yankees1962
07-06-07, 01:10 PM
I'm glad you're going to hold onto Corona for at least 2008, since, he doesn't turn 21 until the season is over with. I take it you mean his 2006 season is better than this season. I'm wondering if the position change has affected his batting this season. He has a respectable OBP, but needs to pick up his batting average so it gets up to the .380-.390 range. I noticed his errors have been decreasing so perhaps he's getting use to the position.
Hughes2.50
07-06-07, 04:06 PM
Great find 2.50, I wasn't able to access the full article, do you have it?I checked that link and found a problem too. I think its fixed now.
Hughes2.50
07-06-07, 04:08 PM
I wonder when that interview took place because they talk like Chamberlain is still in Tampa and probably have Jackson still in Charleston?If you are talking about the Goldstein interview I mention in the post I put the link in that the comments were a month old.
Hughes2.50
07-06-07, 04:11 PM
I think that Jackson might not end up in CF when he gets to NY. Remember that I noted that LF is large in NY, and he might be better off there. Since he is grabbing hold of the strike zone (finally!), I think Damon as a LF (with a MUCH better arm) would be a good comparison.I am sure that there is no one in the Yankee organization that will keep Jackson out of centerfield when he is ready to assume his station there. Jackson will be the New York Yankees centerfielder - the question is will it be at the end of '08, sometime in '09 or will it be in '10?
Except Jackson isnt very good in CF like Gardner is. For all his speed, despite his raw talent, both the scouting reports and statistical numbers have been below average thus far.
He MAY become an asset there, but he isnt a pure burner like Battle/Gardner/Urena. He's a great athlete with lots of tools but range and speed arent plus-plus. I doubt the kid becomes a tweener because he's got so much talent, but it remains to be seen if he can continue as a pure CF
Hughes2.50
07-06-07, 04:43 PM
Except Jackson isnt very good in CF like Gardner is. For all his speed, despite his raw talent, both the scouting reports and statistical numbers have been below average thus far.
He MAY become an asset there, but he isnt a pure burner like Battle/Gardner/Urena. He's a great athlete with lots of tools but range and speed arent plus-plus. I doubt the kid becomes a tweener because he's got so much talent, but it remains to be seen if he can continue as a pure CFJackson has improved every year at centerfield, and continues to do so. You will notice that they moved Battle to left field when they promoted Jackson to Tampa, not because Jackson is as good or better as a defensive centerfielder as is Battle (not many are) but because they intend to move Jackson into the starting centerfield position once he is fully ready to assume that reponsibility. Like Bernie Williams before him, Jackson is learning how to be a superior centerfielder while in the minors, and like Bernie Williams before him, when he is ready the Yankees will let him take his position out there.<p>Urena is not a burner, he gets by with exceptional instincts. <p>I doubt that the Yankees would want to lessen Jackson's overall value to the team by moving him to a corner outfield position once he is ready to play everyday in the majors. And, there is no way that the Yankees will want Gardner playing a corner outfield spot. The fact is that Jackson has a significantly higher ceiling than does Gardner, and Gardner's best value to the Yankees will almost certainly be as a transitional figure before Jackson is ready, and/or as tradebait.
Hughes2.50
07-06-07, 04:55 PM
A few thoughts on a few guys
Jackson: Torii Hunter and the plate and Damon on the bases? why not just compare him to Curtis Granderson? it's the perfect match, CF, some strike out problems but decent enough walks, power potential. speed..raw tools putting it together. they are even extremely similiar in body type as well. and Granderson also played A+ in the FSL, so how Jackson does this year in A+ compare with Granderson could give us a very good hint on his potential and future.
Gardner: Posdeniek? I think Juan Pierre with better defense make much more sense. Gardner's defense owns Posdeneik easily but his power is still very limited even when compare to Posdeniek. potentially he could put up Pierre's Marlin years like number, which is completely awsome for the cost. at worest he should be a much better version of Bubba Crosby, a guy that can play good D and swipe a bag anytime he wants with a bat that's not completely atrocious. i think you put him a tad too high though, guys like him could easily bomb in the majors. he has a chance to be very useful, but also a chance to be Bubba Crosby, Bubba Crosby don't belong on any team's top 10 no matter how bad teh farm is .. and ours isn't bad right now.Granderson was two years older than Jackson is now when he played in the FSL. Granderson today is twenty pounds lighter than Jackson who is the same height. Jackson projects to hit for more power than Granderson, and that is good considering that Granderson (in a career year so far) is currently .284/.388/.549. Granderson is nowhere the baserunner that Jackson is. Jackson's ceiling is higher than is Granderson's. Actually, Jackson's ceiling is probably higher than the comp I used on the thread starter.<p>Podsednik is a guy without much pop as is Gardner. He is a terror on the bases as is Gardner. Crosby runs in lead boots compared to those guys, eventhough I see that you might argue there are similarities at the plate. Pierre is a decent comp for Gardner as well.
Jackson has improved every year at centerfield, and continues to do so.
is this based off anything specific? I havent read a single report this year regarding his defense so you must be talking about going from 05 to 06. Jeff Sackmann's range numbers which have since been taken off his site (minorleaguesplits, i think because of the strain it put on the database, same with the college splits) had Jackson was one of the top 10 worst CF defenders in the minors (range wise)
06 BA book:
He's an above average runner and a solid defender
07 BA book
Jackson's 4.4 second times from the right side of the plate to 1B were pedestrian, though he runs better underway. His fringy speed also limits his range in CF, where he'll have to improve his routes and instincts to become an average defender
You will notice that they moved Battle to left field when they promoted Jackson to Tampa, not because Jackson is as good or better as a defensive centerfielder as is Battle (not many are) but because they intend to move Jackson into the starting centerfield position once he is fully ready to assume that reponsibility.
Battle is a non-prospect, thats why they moved him over. Of course they arent going to move Jackson to LF this early, that doesnt mean hes definitely going to be a CF in the majors
Urena is not a burner, he gets by with exceptional instincts.
haha sorry thats truly a mental error, i meant melky mesa
I doubt that the Yankees would want to lessen Jackson's overall value to the team by moving him to a corner outfield position once he is ready to play everyday in the majors.
unless hes not able to play CF well, in which case he wont be in CF. see Eric Duncan 3B --> 1B
And, there is no way that the Yankees will want Gardner playing a corner outfield spot. The fact is that Jackson has a significantly higher ceiling than does Gardner, and Gardner's best value to the Yankees will almost certainly be as a transitional figure before Jackson is ready, and/or as tradebait.
Jackson has a higher ceiling but much farther from getting to the point. If he cant handle CF in the majors he loses a ton of value, and hes not exactly destined to 30 HR power
Jackson projects to hit for more power than Granderson, and that is good considering that Granderson (in a career year so far) is currently .284/.388/.549.
Can you show me any place that has Jackson projected to hit more than 25 HRs?
Granderson is nowhere the baserunner that Jackson is. Jackson's ceiling is higher than is Granderson's.
I definitely agree. Granderson is a nice player but he strikes out way too much and I dont see Jackson's strikeouts in A ball meaning that he's going to be Adam Dunn once he's in the majors. The kid is still very raw and with his ability he could still be pesky at the plate and have good plate discipline. At least he's shown the ability to walk at this age.
I actually think AJ might be a 30 HR guy eventually.
i dont place much value on wishful optimism, especially from people who haven't seen him play more than a couple times in some videos online (and i dont mean that in a condescending way, id just like to see some of these "hopes" backed up with SOME evidence haha)
i hope Tabata hits 50 HRs as he matures, but if we're operating on wishful optimism on this board we might as well start talking about the next jhonny peralta, reegie corona
i dont place much value on wishful optimism, especially from people who haven't seen him play more than a couple times in some videos online (and i dont mean that in a condescending way, id just like to see some of these "hopes" backed up with SOME evidence haha)
i hope Tabata hits 50 HRs as he matures, but if we're operating on wishful optimism on this board we might as well start talking about the next jhonny peralta, reegie coronaI think Jackson could hit for good power because of his wrists and the bat speed he can generate.
Hey, I was just wondering if there was site for minor leaguers that has all the sabermatrician stats like BABIP. I've been trying to find one but I haven't anything good so far.
www.minorleaguesplits.com
Hughes2.50
07-06-07, 06:54 PM
Here is an addendum, my Mid-Season Yankee Prospects Ranked 11-20.<p>Below are Yankee prospects 11-20. Remembering that no one who has played in the majors is included, and, no 2007 draftees or IFA signees are included.
11) <b>Humberto Sanchez</b>, 6-6 245 (RHP). If not for Tommy John Surgery, Sanchez would be in the top five of this list. The Yankees know that Sanchez projects as a front-of-the-rotation starter when healthy and are excited about what he will be able to bring to the table, particularly in 2009 and beyond. Sanchez will be able to pitch in 2008, but as is true with TJ surgery, don't expect him to hit his stride until two years after the surgery was done (so expect strong resuilts in 2009). By then the Yankees may be in a position to let him challenge for a starting job in New York. (ETA 2009)
12) <b>Jesus Montero</b> 6-4 230 (C/1st basemen). Yet to play in rookie ball, Monetero rates this highly because of his awesome power potential at the plate (80 on the scouts scale). The Yankees have worked hard with Montero to get him to hit to all fields, and, to further refine his tools behind the plate. If Montero is able to progress as a backstop for the Yankees, he will progress rapidly within the Yankees minor league system. And if not, his bat will carry him to the majors not too far into the future. (ETA 2010)
13) <b>David Robertson</b> 5-11 175 (RHP). Robertson has been absolutely dominant as a reliever in low A and A+. Robertson profiles as a potential elite setup man <i>or</i> top closer in the majors. (ETA 2009)
14) <b>George Kontos</b> 6-3 215, the 22 year old Kontos has shown in his stay within the Yankee organization that he has the potential to be mid to back of the rotation starter in mlb (ETA 2009)
14) <b>Carlos Urena</b>, 6-2 180 (CF). Urena is an amazingly gifted centerfielder with decent speed and a great feel for the position. He is also a player who can hit for power, and, if he can learn discipline at the plate for average as well. Urena is far away from being a contributor to the Yankees as his plate discipline is clearly in need of a lot of work.
15) <b>Pyrilis Cuello</b>, 5-11 170 (2nd base) Cuello is an extremely gifted overall player at 18 years old. He can hit for power, and although he is not hitting for average yet in the GCL he is likely to finish with a decent average there as well. Cuello can steal bases and plays a solid second base. Expect him to progress rapidly through the Yankees system. (ETA 2010)
16) <b>Eric Duncan</b>, 6-0 210 (1st base). Duncan is still relatively young (22), yet, he hasn't really put it together to the extent that would justify a promotion to the majors. Duncan might benefit by a change of scenery. (ETA 2009)
17) <b>Juan Miranda</b>, 6-1 190 (1st base). Another firstbaseman, Miranda is a polished hitter who may be able to help the big club as a solid hitting firstbaseman. (ETA 2008). He rates this highly as he is close to major league ready.
18) <b>Franciso Cervelli</b>, 6-0 205 (C). Cervelli is an athletic 21 yr old catcher with an average arm. He has made progress at the plate, but he hasn't shown a superior ability to drive the baseball and the projection for his development of power is in question. With the ability to be a plus defender behind the plate, and an average hitter from behind the plate, right now Cervelli is stuck being a prospect who needs to show more before he can be assumed to be a future starter in major league baseball. (ETA 2010).
19) <b>Marcos Vechionacci</b>, 6-1 190 (3rd base). Vechionacci is a slick fielding, light hitting third baseman. His progress, much like Cervelli's awaits an inkling that he can hit for power, something that hasn't happened yet. (ETA 2011)
20) <b>Jeff Marquez</b>, 6-0 210 (RHP) The soon to be 23 year old Marquez has reached the point where it is clear that he has not only the ability, but now too the polish to be a major league starting pitcher. It appears that the best projection for him is as 4/5th starter for a good team. (ETA 2008)
RollingWave
07-06-07, 08:05 PM
I have to disagree with you on Cervelli a little... Tampa is a hard place to hit for power unless you truely outclass it big time in that department. he has shown the ability to walk like crazy and his avg is well above the league. unless he can't come out of his current slump for al ong time he should be in Trenton later this year already.
budstinks
07-06-07, 09:09 PM
I love Robertson and was super excited when the Yanks nabbed him, but if his velocity doesn't return (and from all reports it hasn't yet) he may not make it.
He was a man among boys a Charleston, Tampa should be a great test. So far so good.
The great thing IF he does get that velocity back AND he continues to be a complete pitcher as he moves up the ladder, LOOK OUT!
Robertson 2.0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.00
b_joseph
07-07-07, 01:48 AM
Other than Duncan being ahead of Miranda. I agree with your 11 thru 20, more than the 1 thru 10.
Actually..Maybe I'd have Marquez higher up. He's going to really benefit from playing with a Major League defense when he gets to the Big leagues. I have visions of another Wang!
RollingWave
07-07-07, 07:20 AM
except that Wang pitched more like Horne than Marquez when he was in AA
ICEBERG18
07-07-07, 09:26 AM
except that Wang pitched more like Horne than Marquez when he was in AA
24-Years old/AA-Wang: 4.05-ERA 109-IP 112-H 53-R 49-ER 6-HR 26-BB 90-K 1.27-WHIP
24-Years old/AA-Horne: 2.26-ERA 99.2-IP 95-H 35-R 25-ER 2-HR 27-BB 113-K 1.22-WHIP
22-Years old/AA-Marquez: 3.18-ERA 99-IP 104-H 44-R 35-ER 6-HR 29-BB 58-K 1.34-WHIP
How would you compare Wang's, Horne's, and Marquez's stuff?
Sinking Fastball
Straight Fastball
Curve
Changeup
Command
Control
metalboy15
07-07-07, 10:08 AM
How would you compare Wang's, Horne's, and Marquez's stuff?
Sinking Fastball
Straight Fastball
Curve
Changeup
Command
Control
Wang and Marquez are both sinkerball pitchers (although Jeff is not showing it right now), while Horne is more of a strikeout guy, so I donīt think they compare all that great to each other...
EDIT: Plus, Jeff primary secondary pitch is the changeup while Wangīs is the slider.
Wang and Marquez are both sinkerball pitchers (although Jeff is not showing it right now), while Horne is more of a strikeout guy, so I donīt think they compare all that great to each other...
Horne is a sinkerballer too, but a sinkerball who can strikeout too. His groundball to flyball ratios are usually around 2.
ICEBERG18
07-07-07, 10:19 AM
Horne is a sinkerballer too, but a sinkerball who can strikeout too. His groundball to flyball ratios are usually around 2.
Marquez, GO/AO: 1.38
Horne, GO/AO: 1.59
Big Game Andy
07-07-07, 10:23 AM
The only similarities I see between Marquez, Horne, and Wang is that they all throw hard, they all throw sinking 2 seamers, and they all don't walk very many batters.
metalboy15
07-07-07, 10:23 AM
Horne is a sinkerballer too, but a sinkerball who can strikeout too. His groundball to flyball ratios are usually around 2.
Horne is not a sinkerballer, sinkerballers are guys who use their sinkers 70%-80% of the time (btw I donīt even think he has a sinker, he may have a moving fastball but not a sinker per se)... btw just because a pitcher puts up above averages GB-FB ratios doesn't necessarily mean that he is a sinkerball pitcher.
Big Game Andy
07-07-07, 10:28 AM
Horne is not a sinkerballer, sinkerballers are guys who use their sinkers 70%-80% of the time (btw I donīt even think he has a sinker, he may have a moving fastball but not a sinker per se)... btw just because a pitcher puts up above averages GB-FB ratios doesn't necessarily mean that he is a sinkerball pitcher.
He has a sinking two-seamer he uses sometimes. Like you said, I wouldn't consider him a sinkerballer because his bread and butter is the four seam fastball, but he still uses his two-seamer a decent amount.
He commands his four seamer very well though and it's got some late life, that's why he gets so many groundballs.
Horne is not a sinkerballer, sinkerballers are guys who use their sinkers 70%-80% of the time (btw I donīt even think he has a sinker, he may have a moving fastball but not a sinker per se)... btw just because a pitcher puts up above averages GB-FB ratios doesn't necessarily mean that he is a sinkerball pitcher.
I've seen some people here compare him to Kevin Brown. Was Kevin Brown a sinker baller? Or was he a guy like Horne?
Big Game Andy
07-07-07, 11:29 AM
I've seen some people here compare him to Kevin Brown. Was Kevin Brown a sinker baller? Or was he a guy like Horne?
Buzah is the only one I've seen here compare him to Kevin Brown, and that was because of the over-rotation he used to have in his delivery. From what I have seen, Horne isn't really similar to Kevin Brown, except for the fact they throw hard.
I've seen some people here compare him to Kevin Brown. Was Kevin Brown a sinker baller? Or was he a guy like Horne?Kevin Brown was a sinker/slider/splitter guy. When AH was in college he was often compared to Kevin Brown cause of his mechanics and the fact that his stuff was so nasty. Now, when you see him his mechanics are more like Phil Hughes, so other than having absolutely filthy stuff, he's not as comparable to Brown anymore.
lemonjello
07-07-07, 01:48 PM
The guy who seems most similar to Wang is Ross Ohlendorf. If you look at Wang's AA numbers compared to Ohlendorf's (they were around the same age), they are strikingly similar. They also have similar repertoires. I'm not ready to leave Ohlendorf for dead yet, and I think if he comes back strong from his injury he has the potential to replicate Wang's success if/when he reaches the majors.
Matsui55
07-09-07, 10:02 PM
The guy who seems most similar to Wang is Ross Ohlendorf. If you look at Wang's AA numbers compared to Ohlendorf's (they were around the same age), they are strikingly similar. They also have similar repertoires. I'm not ready to leave Ohlendorf for dead yet, and I think if he comes back strong from his injury he has the potential to replicate Wang's success if/when he reaches the majors.
Actually, I think that Ohlendorf is only somewhat similar to Wang. However, I don't view Ohlendorf as anything more than a middle reliever. I actually think a better comp would be Jeff Nelson, circa 1996 or so- a middle reliever who was good at getting a ground ball DP, or keeping the ball in the INF when needed.
I think the better comp in the minors to Wang SHOULD BE Marquez. The Yanks should be making Wang's starts required watching for Marquez. IMO, the only way for Marquez to succeed in the bigs will be to focus less on the K's and more on keeping his pitch counts down and using the power sinker to get GB outs. IMO, the reason that Marquez seems capable of so much more is that he doesn't get himself deep into games enough- he needs to worry less about setting up hitters, and more about making them pound the ball into the ground on low pitch counts.
Hughes2.50
09-27-07, 11:30 AM
By looking at the responses to the thread starter in early July anyone can see that my top five list on the first post was criticized for including Jackson primarily. I mentioned that <a href="http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=4283353&postcount=14"><b>Baseball America would come around</b></a> eventually on how they would evaluate Jackson and Horne too.<p>The following post mentioning Jim Callis' comments in a chat verify that adjustment in how Baseball America evaluates the Yankees prospects (here we are referring to Jackson and Horne) pretty much the same way I did back in early July.<p>http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=4543332&postcount=155
MattUNC2003
09-27-07, 02:22 PM
By looking at the responses to the thread starter in early July anyone can see that my top five list on the first post was criticized for including Jackson primarily. I mentioned that Baseball America would come around (http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=4283353&postcount=14) eventually on how they would evaluate Jackson and Horne too.
The following post mentioning Jim Callis' comments in a chat verify that adjustment in how Baseball America evaluates the Yankees prospects (here we are referring to Jackson and Horne) pretty much the same way I did back in early July.http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=4543332&postcount=155
While I rarely agree with your reliance on statistics and mathematics when determining baseball talent.....
Welcome back from your hibernation. Your contributions have been missed.
budstinks
09-27-07, 06:37 PM
I tell you what, with what joba and Ian have done, his stats and math were conservative looking now. Hughes has fought back from injury so will have to see if he corrects towards the better.
Small samples, but some probably ought to be eating some crow.
All that said, even I thought the models were generous to say the least and I probably defended Hughes as much as anyone.
jesterno2
10-01-07, 09:06 PM
Here is an addendum, my Mid-Season Yankee Prospects Ranked 11-20.Below are Yankee prospects 11-20. Remembering that no one who has played in the majors is included, and, no 2007 draftees or IFA signees are included.
11) Humberto Sanchez, 6-6 245 (RHP). If not for Tommy John Surgery, Sanchez would be in the top five of this list. The Yankees know that Sanchez projects as a front-of-the-rotation starter when healthy and are excited about what he will be able to bring to the table, particularly in 2009 and beyond. Sanchez will be able to pitch in 2008, but as is true with TJ surgery, don't expect him to hit his stride until two years after the surgery was done (so expect strong resuilts in 2009). By then the Yankees may be in a position to let him challenge for a starting job in New York. (ETA 2009)
12) Jesus Montero 6-4 230 (C/1st basemen). Yet to play in rookie ball, Monetero rates this highly because of his awesome power potential at the plate (80 on the scouts scale). The Yankees have worked hard with Montero to get him to hit to all fields, and, to further refine his tools behind the plate. If Montero is able to progress as a backstop for the Yankees, he will progress rapidly within the Yankees minor league system. And if not, his bat will carry him to the majors not too far into the future. (ETA 2010)
13) David Robertson 5-11 175 (RHP). Robertson has been absolutely dominant as a reliever in low A and A+. Robertson profiles as a potential elite setup man or top closer in the majors. (ETA 2009)
14) George Kontos 6-3 215, the 22 year old Kontos has shown in his stay within the Yankee organization that he has the potential to be mid to back of the rotation starter in mlb (ETA 2009)
14) Carlos Urena, 6-2 180 (CF). Urena is an amazingly gifted centerfielder with decent speed and a great feel for the position. He is also a player who can hit for power, and, if he can learn discipline at the plate for average as well. Urena is far away from being a contributor to the Yankees as his plate discipline is clearly in need of a lot of work.
15) Pyrilis Cuello, 5-11 170 (2nd base) Cuello is an extremely gifted overall player at 18 years old. He can hit for power, and although he is not hitting for average yet in the GCL he is likely to finish with a decent average there as well. Cuello can steal bases and plays a solid second base. Expect him to progress rapidly through the Yankees system. (ETA 2010)
16) Eric Duncan, 6-0 210 (1st base). Duncan is still relatively young (22), yet, he hasn't really put it together to the extent that would justify a promotion to the majors. Duncan might benefit by a change of scenery. (ETA 2009)
17) Juan Miranda, 6-1 190 (1st base). Another firstbaseman, Miranda is a polished hitter who may be able to help the big club as a solid hitting firstbaseman. (ETA 2008). He rates this highly as he is close to major league ready.
18) Franciso Cervelli, 6-0 205 (C). Cervelli is an athletic 21 yr old catcher with an average arm. He has made progress at the plate, but he hasn't shown a superior ability to drive the baseball and the projection for his development of power is in question. With the ability to be a plus defender behind the plate, and an average hitter from behind the plate, right now Cervelli is stuck being a prospect who needs to show more before he can be assumed to be a future starter in major league baseball. (ETA 2010).
19) Marcos Vechionacci, 6-1 190 (3rd base). Vechionacci is a slick fielding, light hitting third baseman. His progress, much like Cervelli's awaits an inkling that he can hit for power, something that hasn't happened yet. (ETA 2011)
20) Jeff Marquez, 6-0 210 (RHP) The soon to be 23 year old Marquez has reached the point where it is clear that he has not only the ability, but now too the polish to be a major league starting pitcher. It appears that the best projection for him is as 4/5th starter for a good team. (ETA 2008)
i havent seen your top 10 but depending on if garcia, melancon and cox are included i might not agree with your position for sanchez. i believe he should be rated above all 3 of those guys and in that case should be higher than 11.
i think you have the eta for montero way too early, the kid is only 17 (not even graduated hs yet!!!) and the yanks havent been rushing kids until they are sure they are ready since the duncan debacle now that we have a deep and stacked farm. should be interesting to see if he stays at c and how he does with romine and weems at the same position and similar level.
robertson doesn't project to be an elite setup guy or closer unless he gets his velocity back, and even if he gets that back he might not be more than just a really solid middle relief but he should be a pretty safe bet to be a 7th inning guy with guys like cox, whelan, marquez and ohlendorf in the mix for that same spot.
cervelli probably should be ahead of duncan and miranda as an above average defensive catcher that should hit for a high average whereas duncan still hasnt put it together and both him and miranda should end up at dh because of terrible defense.
nacci could even be rated higher than duncan and miranda because of age. he is a light hitting 3b now but he could still fill out some more and gain more power, he has pretty good plate discipline, and his gold glove defense means he should get to the majors even as a utility guy (ala alberto gonzalez).
marquez needs to be much higher than 20 seeing as he was right on the fringe of the top 10 at the start of this year and we have since graduated hughes, joba and kennedy. i dont think there are 10-15 guys who have increased their stock to surpass jeff and given what he helped trenton do in the playoffs he should still be up there. he will be starting in AAA, close to the majors, and while i agree that he might eventually just be a strong middle relief jeff nelson type he has shown that he can pitch well in big games and he still has some of the best stuff/highest ceilings on the farm.
Matsui55
10-03-07, 08:28 PM
A little different list, with rationales (I am not including Hughes, because except for rehabs, he isn't going to spend any more time in the minors). I also do not rate rookies, as short season does not give an accurate picture of the player- wait till they reach full-season ball, where they must grind it out daily.
1) Chamberlain- at least a #2, if he can stay healthy
2) Tabata- at 18, the power comes later- right now, showing the bat is for real
3) Kennedy- gets knocked for not having a blazing FB- but sometimes knowing where to pitch and how to mix up pitches is better than how fast the ball gets there
4) Jackson- the sky is the limit here, but he needs a LOT of upper level (AA and AAA) AB's to fully develop- there is no rush here with Gardner in front of him- ETA- 2010
5) Clippard- so long as he takes his AAA lessons seriously, I see no reason why he should not be a strong competitor to be the #5 starter in NY next year
6) Horne- is finally showing why he was a first round pick out of HS- he is the real deal. He will pitch in NY- but is he a starter or reliever?
7) Gardner- can run like the wind, but has VERY little pop in his bat. The track record for slap hitters isn't that good- but he deserves at least a chance. ETA- end of 2008- extended trial then and early 2009 to see if he can hit
8) Betances- has the arm, but needs a TON of IP and time. NY pitchers just don't throw as much as Southern kids do- will be brought along slowly to baby the arm- ETA 2010- cup of coffee- 2011 for good.
9) Sanchez- starting days are likely over- but he should be placed in the NY bullpen to apprentice with Mo for a year, and eventually be his successor- power sinker and slider should be a good power reliever. With the TJ surgery, may not see him at full strength until 2009- but he has remarkable numbers in 2005 with an arm that likely already required TJ surgery- indicates he may be able to be useful in 2008 despite not being at full strength
10) Cox- in a close call, I give him the nod- he will likely be part of the 2008 pen as well- has elbow surgery, but not TJ- does that mean he doesn't need the 2 years to fully recover his stuff? I don't know. Regardless, he has a good future before him
11) Christian Garcia- another TJ casualty- but assuming that the surgery restores him to full strength (and the track record gets better every year), few in the system match his raw stuff. 2008 may be no more than a strength building year- likely in Tampa, with 2009 being the big year. However, because he didn't build up a lot of IP before the injury, he may be headed to the pen as well
12) Cervelli- nice to see a C who can hit and apparently is a decent defensive C as well. However, the road to being a ML C is long- as the prospect must learn not only to survive the 162 game grind, but be ready for the post-season at the end. He will be a level-to-level guy, playing and playing his way into a full time role. ETA- 2010, possibly with a mentor splitting time, then 2011 as a regular, if he continues the present progress rate
13) Miranda- is finally getting comfortable- the adjustment for Cuban players is much greater than that for other Latin players. Once the cultural and other barriers are cleared, his bat should get him to NY. However, appears to be limited to 1B or DH- will he hit enough at the bigs to hold these spots? I am not sure yet- come back next year.
14) Melacon- as a major college power reliever, he will move fast. Since he is another TJ alum, 2008 should be at high A Tampa building strength, with 2009 at Trenton and then see what they have. SHould at least be a power set-up man
15) Vechionacci- has GREAT defensive ability- it is only the bat holding him back. Will not turn 21 until August, and is finally showing signs that he will hit. Next year will be the big test- at Trenton- if he can hit at AA, 3B will be his.
16) McCutchen- due to the 50 game suspension, has fallen a bit behind the other arms- but should be in AA before the end of the year. May be a very deep sleeper, as he has always been highly though of- this season is really his big test- will be in Trenton in 2008, and will likely get noticed nationally then
17) Kontos- has a power arm, but needs to build IP. Will be part of another powerful Trenton rotation in 2008- will that group be as successful as the 2007 class?
18) McCallister- has stuff, though not in Betances class. He will be moved slowly as well- maybe tracking together with Betances. Needs a big year in 2008.
19) Robertson- just completely dominated low A ball- now in high A ball. Will he be another college closer who runs through the minors, or does he need more refinement. 2008's test in Trenton should be interesting.
20) Marquez- I have never really bought all in on him- his stuff should produce more results than he has to date, even with the gaudy AA numbers this year. He may need to repeat or improve in AAA next year to gain more attention and consideration.
21-30)
A lot of relievers and role guys here. To close to really rank, so I will just list a lot of names here:
Hilligoss
Whelan
Brett Smith
Wordekemper (watch him- he is versatile and throws in the 90's- may be able to contribute as a middle reliever in the bigs)
Kyle Anson (appears to be developing as a very good defensive C, who can hit a bit- still early in the transition- at 24, might not have much time to prove himself- watch him in 2008 and 2009)
Ohlendorf- raw stuff is good, but may not be a starter
Eric Duncan- has all the tools, but will it ever come together? Yanks may need 2008 to see him in AAA again before making their decision
Claggett- has the pitches, but control is an issue
Ferdie Tejada- converted pitcher has had TJ surgery; this year is arm strength building season- before surgery threw easily in the high 90's with a developing slider- if he can regain his stuff, 2008 could be an interesting year
Alberto Gonzalez- supposed to be a great defensive SS- haven't seen it this year- but if he can recover defensively, could be a nice middle INF sub, or trade throw-in
I put together this list in early July.
Offhand, I overrated Clippard- he probably doesn't crack the top 25 now.
I underrated McCutchen badly too- he might be top 10, maybe top 6.
Gardner is overrated- maybe around 13-15- speed is great, but Otis Nixon comparisons aren't going to be good enough to hold a job in NY- the Yanks didn't keep Otis either when they had him.
I might bump Ohlendorf up because of his potential as a power reliever in 2008- maybe 15.
As for those that want to give Marquez a big boost- I don't think so. Sure he won a lot of games with a good ERA. However, he is a guy with a power stuff and a good sinker, but has two major problems. One- not enough GB for a guy with his stuff. Two- has a tendancy not to get deep enough in games. He is also somewhat inconsistent start to start. I would think that the Yanks should just give him a DVD of Wang's starts to study all winter, and ask him to come back with his pitching style modeled on Wang.
The rest, I think once you account for the above moves, they are about right.
Hughes2.50
10-11-07, 02:34 PM
i havent seen your top 10 but depending on if garcia, melancon and cox are included i might not agree with your position for sanchez. i believe he should be rated above all 3 of those guys and in that case should be higher than 11.
i think you have the eta for montero way too early, the kid is only 17 (not even graduated hs yet!!!) and the yanks havent been rushing kids until they are sure they are ready since the duncan debacle now that we have a deep and stacked farm. should be interesting to see if he stays at c and how he does with romine and weems at the same position and similar level.
robertson doesn't project to be an elite setup guy or closer unless he gets his velocity back, and even if he gets that back he might not be more than just a really solid middle relief but he should be a pretty safe bet to be a 7th inning guy with guys like cox, whelan, marquez and ohlendorf in the mix for that same spot.
cervelli probably should be ahead of duncan and miranda as an above average defensive catcher that should hit for a high average whereas duncan still hasnt put it together and both him and miranda should end up at dh because of terrible defense.
nacci could even be rated higher than duncan and miranda because of age. he is a light hitting 3b now but he could still fill out some more and gain more power, he has pretty good plate discipline, and his gold glove defense means he should get to the majors even as a utility guy (ala alberto gonzalez).
marquez needs to be much higher than 20 seeing as he was right on the fringe of the top 10 at the start of this year and we have since graduated hughes, joba and kennedy. i dont think there are 10-15 guys who have increased their stock to surpass jeff and given what he helped trenton do in the playoffs he should still be up there. he will be starting in AAA, close to the majors, and while i agree that he might eventually just be a strong middle relief jeff nelson type he has shown that he can pitch well in big games and he still has some of the best stuff/highest ceilings on the farm.Garcia, Melancon and Cox were not included. My top ten is the first post on the first page of this thread. When I do my next top twenty list, it will include new signees from 2007 both from the draft and the IFA group.<p>Marquez is not a high level prospect and his age is working against him. I agree that he does have major league ability, but his ceiling is probably as a 4/5 on an average team. He is someone who is likely to be part of a trade to bring either bullpen help, or help elsewhere. Marquez has too many quality starting pitchers already as advanced or not far behind him, and I doubt he would climb any higher than I have him on most prospect lists, and surely not on mine.<p>Sanchez is still a question mark, although not as much as he was in July when I did the rankings. He will almost certainly be rated higher than 11 next time.
I think Marquez is gonna be the new Ramiro Mendoza.
Hughes2.50
10-11-07, 07:03 PM
I think Marquez is gonna be the new Ramiro Mendoza.That might be an excellent opportunity if he can show something in spring training. He might be gone by then, though.
indianyanksfan
10-11-07, 07:29 PM
That might be an excellent opportunity if he can show something in spring training. He might be gone by then, though.
where would he go?
Hughes2.50
10-11-07, 08:23 PM
where would he go?Trade-bait.
BomberBrian
10-11-07, 08:28 PM
Why is the fact that Marquez is 23 years old working against him?
Hughes2.50
10-11-07, 08:42 PM
Why is the fact that Marquez is 23 years old working against him?Because as a guy who right now probably settles in as a #4/5 slot type pitcher on a typical roster, one would be interested in seeing where he might be in 4-5 years. Unfortunately, unlike a Hughes who in four years might have kept improving for 4 years it is less likely that a 26 or 27 year old pitcher will have quite as much room for growth (physically, maturity-wise, pitching-wise, etc.) Quite simply, unless Marquez shows A. Horne type improvement fast it looks like he is settling in as a back of the rotation starter at best.
BaylorBearYankeeFan
10-11-07, 10:23 PM
Because as a guy who right now probably settles in as a #4/5 slot type pitcher on a typical roster, one would be interested in seeing where he might be in 4-5 years. Unfortunately, unlike a Hughes who in four years might have kept improving for 4 years it is less likely that a 26 or 27 year old pitcher will have quite as much room for growth (physically, maturity-wise, pitching-wise, etc.) Quite simply, unless Marquez shows A. Horne type improvement fast it looks like he is settling in as a back of the rotation starter at best.
Or perhaps as a decent long man out of the pen? I think with the plethora of starting pitching, having a guy, or two, who can come out of the pen in long relief would be best...he could be a good addition to the pen, maybe not this next year but in 09?
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